They win a lot of the blocks but they do not control the blocks. Remember the OFAC compliant block, I think it was from Mara and how everyone started sending "tainted" bitcoin utxo's to the address where the block reward was awarded to? Miners who misbehave will be punished by the network and will only hurt themselves, that is why Mara stopped it as there was no monetary incentives (the utxo's did not command a premium), and they were losing tx fees of suspected addresses from Iran or Russia And eventually, a solo miner (BitAxe) or most likely a secret mining pool from China or Iran (when Iran got bombed recently the network hash rate went down by 20%, which is huge, is Iran bitcoin mining?) or other nation states mining, Russia, El Salvador, Bhutan As an aside, there is a video of Peter Dunsworth discussing selling blockspace as a service >30 years from now, even as block rewards newly minted bitcoin will be way below 1 bitcoin, imagine if you have to send a transaction and a sat is US $ parity ($100M/btc) even a simple transaction would cost $1,000 what if you can pay a mining pool in fiat, $200 to include your txid on the next block they mine? Fascinating video, the what-ifs , imagine if bitcoin becomes the global monetary settlement network replacing swift and how valuable the blockspace could be Price of bitcoin crashing does not mean failure... FTX and the last bear market was proof of that, remember when Genesis /GBTC, and all the other failures, BlockFi, Celsius, FTX, 3AC, Voyager and many others were selling customer bitcoin, the price of bitcoin kept crashing and crashing, how many hundreds of thousands maybe even a million or two of bitcoin were involved, FTX alone stole 80,000 btc and then final crash to $14,500, and just dead price action, 15k to 20k back to 15k then to 20k, then to 15k again to 20k, back to 15k then to 20k, for many months and everyone was saying it will crash to $10k and then to $3k to liquidate Saylor? Did not happen. no more sellers to push it lower. and bitcoiners were buying, catching falling knives, blood in the streets were our own, I bought some sats, I posted here my screenshots If Coinbase fails and loses the Blackrock and mstr bitcoin, how? they lost the private keys, that would be great, they got hacked, not so great but those bitcoin cannot be dumped where are the hackers going to sell those bitcoin in size? And Coinbase cannot sell those bitcoin like what FTX did, they will all go to jail, Can the USG seize them? of course, but that is why bitcoin is decentralized and global, it will not fail, it will survive, Bitcoin cannot fail at this point, imho,
For the hell of it I threw on a monthly chart every fib projection, extension & external retracement out there that I could think of and I don't see $400k in the picture any time soon. Various clusters up to $296k. Need more price history for me to see beyond that. Though of course I could be completely wrong.
I don't understand most of what you said... LOL... Not sure what clearnet is and not too well versed on Umbrel, but I do remember watching one of the internet security channels talking about how running a VPN and Tor together leads to suspicion. But I'm doing exactly this... LOL. I guess its so secure that they wonder what you are doing to require this level of security. I haven't done a deep dive into Tor, but apparently, you still have to be careful about who the last hop is for the exit channel... or something like this. For people who help by running a Tor replay, apparently you don't want to be the exist. So this podcast said that its generally only universities or other major organization who do this. Anyway.. the reason why I'm also mostly on Tor is because my VPN wouldn't allow port forwarding. Tor fixes this, and it just made sense to combine it with a VPN since I'm already paying for that anyway. As for price and where to put the money... I'm honestly not sure either. I see an initial dump of everything, but then you have to figure that they have to print... so how can bitcoin dump so much? If they don't print, even the USG can't pay the bills or the interest expense on the debt, so the whole thing will blow up, and once again, Bitcoin is the only thing left standing to use as currency. Is there any scenario where Bitcoin drops 80% and goes into another 1-2 year bear market? I honestly don't think so. And, at the first sign of a dump, the alts all probably rotate into bitcoin. The point you also made about little retail participation this time around also means maybe no 80% dump. So going forward, maybe the riskiest thing is to reduce Bitcoin exposure.
Didn't hear this. Thanks for sharing. Its good to have a precedent on what is accepted as general practise if OFAC compliant blocks come up again. I don't like to forecast that far out anymore. Everyone was saying fees will be forever expensive a year or two ago, and I spent about 20k or more sats to consolidate. What a waste of money that was. I think given how easy it is to trade ETFs and get bitcoin exposure, block space is honestly dead for a long time. Which is fine to me. Even a sub 1BTC per block subsidy is huge when BTC is 500k or 1M. The fees will only every matter decades from now if you ask me. It will be a long time before the economic value of fees outpace the block reward. I say even roll back the block size to 1mb and lets make sure everyone has a node at home. Lets keep 1TB drive useable for Bitcoin for a long time. I'm sure its heading here, but even for this, 2k transations every 10 minutes is plenty of block space. I think many people will have custodial bitcoin through their bank, which I think is also fine, and its only the super rich people along with central banks and corporation who will use on-chain. Most people will want a bank to custody their bitcoin. Its sad, but a reality. Just like most people don't want too much freedom. They want the government to hold their hand. The important thing is that Bitcoin can do both. It can service the needs of us Libertarians, and also the people who want custodial services. But the fact that anyone can leave the system at any time means the system will be kept much more honest. Its kind of like gun control. Too many Americans love guns, which is fine, but this is why government will not dare tyrannize the people like they do in other countries. Because the government knows that citizens are armed, they will not push too far. So although we work under a government, the US will not turn into authoritarian states. Likewise, banks will still be a thing for most people, but because they will be dealing with bitcoin and knowing that people can opt out any time, banks will have real constraints.
Tor network is not regular internet, you need special software to access it, it's where the darknet market places are, but it's also the network used by journalists living in oppressive states and they need bitcoin so you're helping them https://tails.net/ Tor is not completely private, the exit nodes are controlled by [fill in the blank] Clearnet is regular internet where we are right now, and there are many bitcoiners that need to communicate here so having a node here is good Definitely don't sell all the bitcoin, lol I don't have a job, that is why the YieldMax etf's are enticing to me, there is always that bearish YieldMax etf WNTR,
$100K in MSTY with full DRIP can grow to ~$400K in 2 years through monthly income and compounding—no price movement needed. $100K in Bitcoin only hits $400K if it rallies 4x in that same time. Otherwise MSTY wins again. Even in your most permabull dreams do you really think this is going to be 400k in 2 years??? It can barely stay above 100k and every rally is weaker than the last. And who exactly is doing the buying at these levels? Do you think institutions are going to canabalize themselves?
I bet for most this inkling of a drop is the best buying opportunity of 2025 or do you wait for it to plummet before going all in.....
100k to 400k in 2 years investing in MSTY???? Would definitely like to revisit this in 2 years.. Once bitcoin drops 30 to 50% msty will be trading in the single digits paying a fraction of a dividend...
Bitcoin already tanked and MSTY held up just fine...either way, lower price = more shares = offset lower div.