Do you need to lie down after reading any fiction? True believers have the capacity to believe anything.
Im just winding my mate orbit up,of course. But I hope the internet is now abuzz with this information.haha
Is that legit? Or am I getting wound up now?? haha I swear I havent seen that before. I selected 2054 at random. Now I need a lie down!
Good movie based on "Story of Your Life" by Ted Chiang https://www.imdb.com/title/tt2543164/ Same subject, different take, Predestination Personally, I like the recent Time Travel remake Oh shit, forgot Nolan's mind-bender TENET and crowd favorite Bruce Willis = Looper, which Josh recently alluded to as part of his price prediction-model techniques, as he said the bitcoin closing price today if between 104k and 105k signals $124k by end of June Above 105k and we get the dreaded bitcoin summer doldrums bear market until Sept/Oct Below 104k and sell everything bear market I think we closed between 104 and 105 so we should be ok approved by Bruce
Listening to: scrapecreators -> aistudio.google -> claude sonnet 4 Summary of Main Concepts: "Nothing Stops This Train" Metaphor: Originating from Breaking Bad, this describes the unstoppable and accelerating nature of US fiscal deficits, regardless of economic conditions or political intentions. Decoupling of Deficits and Unemployment: Historically, deficits rose with unemployment (recessions) and fell in good times. Since ~2017, deficits have remained high (6-7% of GDP) even with low unemployment, a significant departure from past trends. Impact on Scarce Assets (Gold & Bitcoin): Real Interest Rates vs. Gold: Historically, higher real interest rates (Treasury yields - inflation) meant lower gold prices. This correlation broke down around 2022, with gold (and Bitcoin) rising despite high real rates and a hawkish Fed. This signals a shift where traditional safe havens (like Treasuries) are less attractive due to the fiscal situation, pushing investors towards scarce assets. Shift from Private to Public Debt Growth: Pre-2008 GFC: Private sector debt growth typically outpaced public sector debt growth. Post-GFC (especially recent years): Federal debt growth consistently outpaces private sector debt growth, even outside recessions. The Fed's "Impaired Brakes": With federal debt over 100% of GDP, raising interest rates (the Fed's tool to slow the economy) now increases the federal deficit faster than it slows private credit growth. This means the Fed has lost its primary mechanism to control total credit growth and inflation effectively; the "brakes don't work" or work in reverse. Reasons for Unstoppability: Math & Systemic Issues: High Debt & Interest Rates: Decades of rising debt were manageable with falling interest rates. Now, with rates not structurally falling, interest expense on the massive debt is soaring. Social Security Depletion: The trust fund (~$3T) is projected to deplete by ~2035 as Baby Boomers retire, injecting this money into the economy. This drawdown started around 2017-2018, coinciding with deficit decoupling. Ponzi Nature of Fiat: The fiat/fractional reserve system requires constant debt growth. Total debt (public + private) rarely decreases; attempts at deleveraging (e.g., 2008) are met with massive base money expansion. Human Nature & Politics: Public resistance to higher taxes or spending cuts. Politicians lack incentives to address deficits. Social Security is a "third rail" politically, making reforms difficult. Historical Parallel (1940s): The US has seen a similar cycle before: private debt bubble -> zero rates -> crisis -> shift to massive federal debt growth and deficits. We are in the second such cycle. Relentless, Not Hyperinflationary (Yet): The issue is not immediate hyperinflation, but persistent, "clockwork" ~7% deficits year after year. Bitcoin as a Contrast & Solution: Fiat: Flexible ledger, opaque, error correction via printing more units (debasement). Bitcoin: Absolute scarcity, transparent, fixed supply, error correction via deleveraging without affecting the unit itself. It's presented as a way to protect oneself from the ongoing debasement of the dollar system.
Probably PTJ or some other practitioner of EW...it clearly follows the 5 cycles. The book was published in 1938.
Arrival is a brilliant movie, an all-time favorite. The original newsgroup postings of John Titor (self-proclaimed time traveler) in the early 2000's are pretty trippy. His connection with forecasting the emergence of Bitcoin is largely attributed to 'Retroactive Mythmaking' https://www.perplexity.ai/search/locate-original-newsgroup-post-jUbdzN_MR2Kz7sNnW5gxfw#2