I think that's the ETF effect. Before all this institutional money there was probably less of a link but people who trade IBIT just see it as another leveraged QQQ or ARKK play.
I said IMO. Am I no longer allowed to have an opinion or has that been cut too? Anyway your statement is the one that is clearly dumb. He had a chance the first time, then tried to overthrow an election. That IS his record.
We all feel pain and frustrations... and if it turns out that bitcoin has peaked for this bull market cycle, that would be really fucked up I do not think this is the case, our guide is 2021, 2017 and 2013, but disclaimer is that past performance... The bitcoin spot etf's and mstr and others have purchased (acquired) over 1.5M bitcoin since January of last year and the price of bitcoin has doubled, very disappointing performance, which means there were many many sellers lots of early bitcoin whales sold a portion of their holdings at $100k and lots of buyers of recent bear market lows below $30k were happy to sell as well at 300% profits As you had said, the bitcoin sold, whether they came from early bitcoin whales or the recent investors of 2022-2023 bear market, can only be sold exactly once to the bitcoin spot etf's and mstr and meta planet and others The bitcoin is going from previous owners to very long term hodlers The number of bitcoin held by bitcoin spot etf's, mstr, and all those public companies are disclosed per stock market regulations One of the biggest criticisms in the past of bitcoin is that the early whales own 90% of the supply, the selling and distribution we're seeing now is extremely positive for the future of bitcoin... As I have posted several times, though, even on another thread, long posts, we have to manage our own individual risks in case this is now a bear market, or a recession, or other grim realities
Holy crap, those are some pretty sad stories. Since I've been trying to trade for so long, I have developed the instinct that you can't argue with the price. As we have both been saying, there is so much selling, and so it doesn't matter what the narrative was, we just weren't able to push higher, no matter how good the news was. Now, I'm not quite ready to call it the end of this bull market yet. It fits the narrative that nobody really knows the future, and this would be the most ironic end considering the fights were between 150k, 200k, 500, 1M top price. I didn't hear anyone say 109k was the top price... LOL I think given all the liquidity talk we've had, and the fact that I even saw that Josh guy that you recommended say that the liquidity is coming in 5 days, makes me think that we don't need to be scared just yet. All of this can turn on a dime based on what the Fed and Trump do. But for people who need money now, or are leveraged, this totally sucks. I learned my lesson when I was using the BITX ETF, a 2x long. It bled out so much, and I would have done very well, but I was getting out early fall and totally missed the massive move after Trump won. Oh well, that was just a small account with play money. I haven't touched long term holdings in both cold storage and the IBIT ETF. But as you also say, the distribution away from the whales is a wonderful thing, and much better that it happens now below 100k rather than at much higher prices. I think the cycles are dead though to be honest, and the future price depends on macro environments. A slowing on the economy, and a bad stock market, is apparently very bad for tax receipts, and so no matter how much Trump cuts from spending, this could be not enough to cover the lower income taxes collected. Its crazy to think that drastic government cuts actually make the finances for the government worse, but it all checks out. So its only a matter of time until the printing starts, and the cycles can't account for this.
Very sad... higher risk and higher rewards with altcoins as they are further out the risk curve, but with bitcoin 30% down from peak, the consequences are severe for alts Josh started "this experiment account" with $2.1M in Sept 2024, and was able to cash out massive profits in Nov at the height of the fomo, go (hedged) short (covered calls), cash out massive profits at the bottom 1st half of January, go (hedged) short (covered) calls again! plus ibit puts, plus short bitcoin etf and cash out massive profits again last week, now completely long again, no short positions He turned $2.1M to over $20M, although it's probably around $18-$19M or maybe even less, as he has over 50k mstr shares that are long term so those are taking a beating today All of these documented on his Twitter Today, I'm very happy to be on his side of the trade, but last week he mentioned he has had an incredible run, and does not know when it will end, perhaps this time but Pi day plus or minus a few days was the bottom he predicted when he was going short the last time All we can do for now is pray and wait PS: The early bitcoin whales and 2022-2023 profit takers were selling above $95k I'm afraid the sellers now per on chain data bitcoin movements are selling for a loss (short term holders realized price) as discussed on a YouTube video, might have been Checkmate on What Bitcoin Did episode or Simply Bitcoin episode
I have a big pile of dividends arriving in the middle of the month. I hope BTC can stay in the 70s, and I'll be even more happy if it can spike down lower. The sad news, is every time I plan to back up the truck during the BTC dips, there is ALWAYS a rally just before my dividends hit the account. lol
Using these metrics is kind of what I planned to do for exit areas. Nothing is overheated now, but it may just be that this cycle doesn't reach the exuberant stages like previous cycles. Perhaps going forward, none of the previous "indicators" will work. I do think that with so much stuff happening internally at Coinbase, all metrics like MVRV will be less useful. Its almost seems like Coinbase is kind of like shadow banking, or dark pools, where it has a significant volume, but none of it can be tracked. So all on-chain metrics used in the past are now way less useful.
I think you absolutely should. Tinkering with stuff is the best way to learn. And then maybe you will come across the knowledge of how different RosyBucks are from Bitcoin. There is only one mechanism to create more Bitcoin, and you're welcome to get into the mining game, but be prepared for major expenditure of resources. And then when you learn now resource intensive it is, you will start to understand why the price is so high. And then you might even have the brilliant thought that since RosyBucks are easy to create, just like USD, maybe the thing that is difficult to create should be what is used to underpin the entire financial system. Shit, maybe your foray into RosyBucks will turn you into a hardcore Bitcoiner!!! Welcome aboard!