And who cares collect another 38k lol! You've been down more than that and haven't even flinched. I'm not a trader either in the sense that I look for quick gains... I'm looking long-term always. It's the same as real estate. Sure, the housing market may be crashing and your capital may be tanking but you're still getting rent... And sooner or later the market will recover.
You probably thought I was joking that I did not want the wager with you..., I do not, I was bluffing When I'm up a lot, I "bet" bigger, when I'm down a lot, I "bet" smaller, or none at all This is how I manage risks... , I play defensive, I de-risk, take less risks, all the way to no risks when things are going against me I think it was noted in one of the market wizards books, or somewhere I read similar strategy Think about it, I've seen 3 bear markets, 2014+, completely wiped out on profits, 2018+ from $1M portfolio valuation at the peak, to less than $100k bottom portfolio 2022+ bear market, I have no job anymore for over a year, when bitcoin crashed in April 2021 from $65k, I started de-risking like my life depended on it, My family's life depended on it It's here on record on this very thread started selling when bitcoin was crashing from $42k, all the way to $32k within 2-4 days, sold over 25 bitcoin, do I regret it? no, i do not, I de-risked, I don't know the future, did not know if it was the start of the bear market, I did not know bitcoin was going to recover and go back up to $69k in Nov 2021... the cash, lasted until the current bull market, I am very confident this bull market is not over, bitcoin will hit $200k and even much higher... But that doesn't mean I do not employ my risk-management I posted my trades on another thread, we're all anons here, maybe no one cares, maybe someone cares, no financial advice, everything is for entertainment purposes only at the end of the day, we're all accountable to ourselves and our family, Do not get wiped out,, there is always a bull market somewhere, or some day
I think you replied to the wrong person? lol I had been stating in my journal for many, many weeks now that I'm trying to unwind my deltas and de-leverage in preparation for the AI-pop/Tether risk/Geo-Political risks. I already got out of MSTR toward the end of last year. This is why I am still in a decent position to take advantage of some of the fire-sales next week. And I am well aware there is a moderate chance those discounts may get melted-up real quick.
Just popped $2k+ and trading above Thursday's high (86988 is what I have). Still, needs to close above it EOD.
This is why you need to know the cycles. I saw this correction before it happened and I know statistically how long/low this correction can go. You have to understand that price is bound by statistics. My portfolio has gone from up 20% to down 20%. I was fully aware of this impending outcome....did I sell with plans to rebuy lower? Nope. Did I take off any risk? Nope. My only focus right now is income... maximum income. This is a natural (passive) hedge to downside risk. I am already positioned to make money on the way up...what's more important is making money sideways and down in the meantime.
Here’s my process, and a reversion to around 100k at the very least would be a nice trade. At some point if the pattern works it should take it up to 150k, but that’s based off the lead into the rectangle. Who knows though based on the presidents working commission, it was a tight 38.2% pullback which is the norm this cycle and anything is possible. typically a deep wick in a pattern like this is the flush before the good move but tbd.
Already stated that it's actually an illusion that you can take advantage of it in most cases. Remember, I have a spreadsheet that calculates one standard deviation and profit potential. Puts are too expensive. Short calls are too cheap... Inverse ETFs don't perform... Shorting is too risky. The only play would have been to sell, wait, and then buy back cheaper... But in the meantime I'm making dividends anyway so it's the same difference.
Sounds like you didn’t have much conviction in your 75k prediction. Otherwise why didn’t you short it? Missed opportunities have always bothered me more than losing a little by being wrong.