You'll want to exit all crypto during December and never buy back. Best case scenario for the bitcoin bugs is this thing pops above $100K, media adding oil to the fire with "magic breakthrough", going to like $115K and topping... And then towards the end of December or perhaps more likely in January Tether executives get arrested, Tether depegs and bitcoin drops -90% in an instant.
This post came across my feed, but I realize its kind of late since its from Nov 13. Its also a very small sample size, but I can't help but agree with the sentiment. Nothing will happen with the cuts, at least not meaningfully, and if anything, spending will just go up. So why post this here? Because there is no way out of this mess. The fact that they are desperately trying to control the $2T deficit means we are at the end of the line. Inflation is coming in hot based on the numbers just this week, and Trump's tariffs will accelerate this. So rates have to go up. This means the interest expense for the governments gets even worse. For the DOGE team to make a real impact in government spending, like $500B or more in cuts, means a massive hit to the GDP. You lay off all those government workers, that affects tax receipts. I listen to Luke Gromen quite a bit and didn't realize how important tax receipts are to this whole conversation. Sure, cutting government spending is good in the long run, but the immediate hit of high unemployment, having to spend heavily on unemployment benefits, coupled with a decrease in tax receipts, means government is spending more, not less, for the next few years. All these spending cuts will put the economy into a recession, or depression. I also know that Prof St. Onge is talking about the benefits of sending back all the illegal immigrants. Yes, good long term, and a huge savings from not having to support them. But once again, all that spending by the government is real GDP for someone else. All those hotels now go bankrupt with no customers. All the retailers who provided these migrants with food and clothes lose this customer base. For those who had jobs, yes this means locals can now get these jobs, but locals want more money, so inflation goes up. So the point I'm making now is any tinkering with the current system is a massive disaster. The system is balanced on a tight rope. There is no way to save anything except for just abandoning the old system and moving to the bitcoin standard. Yes, I'm worried about a massive deflationary event that causes people to dump bitcoin sending the price crashing. But I'm also so worried about selling, and hoping to scale back in 50% lower, and being completely left out when a $100k bull candle hits. I hope we are close to this event, and think we must be.
Agree with the sentiment except the nonsense part about illegal immigrants. They (both legal and illegals) support the country. They work and consume as much, if not more, than the average American citizen. Always have, always will. And just like Jesus says in the bible about the poor, in general, they will always be with us.
I think there is a huge bit of nuance here. Right now, most of the very recent immigrants who are staying in hotels of free and given free phones and food are the biggest drain. Yes, there are many more established immigrants who work shit jobs for minimum wage, and even less money if you include farm workers, so these people contribute to making life better for all Americans. But I think right now, there are far too many doing absolutely nothing. Maybe a good majority want to work, but its at the expense of locals who can't get into the workforce themselves. I honestly think there is no need for immigration. What a country needs to find is a way to be self sufficient. If you only rely on young people coming in, at some point, those young people get old, and now need services themselves. You're just pushing the can down the road. A country needs to focus on striking the right balance. If people don't want to have children, you find out why and fix that. Its obviously expensive to raise children, but the answer isn't to important young adults. In fact, its kind of sad that locals who think about the costs involved with having children choose not to, but then some immigrant comes in with 5 and all of those are supported by the system as the expense of the responsible local who thought it would be too expensive.