What makes you want to wait till after that date to sell if you don't mind me asking? I'm trying to figure out when I should sell, thinking about shorting right near 100K, then buying at the bottom and seeing how high it goes after. I am sure there will be a lot of resistance at that price and assuming we go near 150K. But WTFDIK? LOL
**** not financial advice, this post is for entertainment purposes only **** I'm assuming that the peak for this bull market cycle is late 2025 one year after the halving like Dec 2017 or Nov 2021 The chart from SemperFrosty hockey stick chart after election is what I'm hoping for the next 12 months but selling before the peak https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...r-asymmetric-risk-reward.379915/#post-5981373 The plan is also to own 1000 shares of mstr (it was 100 shares, but 10 to 1 split occurred), this is a long term hodl investment which I believe will be worth $10M within 5-10 years Selling after July will be after 1 year of buying the Leaps calls, which might result in a lower tax bill for 2026 (i'm not a tax expert, I'm assuming here, please consult a tax professional) I have made big gains this year from mstr short term call options Good luck, bro, I personally think the peak for this cycle is over $250k/btc, but like you, WTFDIK I'm so biased it hurts
All I will say is... year after year after year after year I keep getting these perma-bulls telling me that for SURE this year BTC will reach 100K. You can even see it in old Andre Jikh videos. It's almost become a meme in itself with YouTube fin-fluencers. While this year, "this time is different" could be a possibility.... I did flatten my FOPs into the rally using today's market as a liquidity exit. Just... in case. I may be kicking myself for closing a bunch of my positions lately, but risk management "trumps" all. Everyone's going to start over-leveraging harder again.... and as I like to say in those cases... shit's going to get interesting...
No one is here, mate. Retail is definitely not here in crypto Check out the google search trend of bitcoin and crypto In 2021 bull market, Coinbase app shot up to number 1, this bull market cycle so far, Coinbase app is hundreds of apps lower in the app store Retail is doing bitcoin spot etf's? possibly some, but majority is big money, over $30B into Blackrock ibit alone, 13F filings show big institutions It ain't retail struggling with rent and living expenses with high inflation... Retail crowd will come back to cryptos when bitcoin is over $300k... or maybe never
I'll have to look into MSTR. Remember the 2017 bullrun? We went to 20K before going back down in January, (or Feb). You also have to think, who in their right mind is going to buy Bitcoin at over 100k? I think the buying pressure will go down significantly after that price. But according to the historical chart, Bitcoin has the potential of reaching levels of up to 600K in 2025 So anywhere from 100K to 600K is the reality, lol. I just know that whenever I sell, I am going to shut off the computer and never look at the Bitcoin chart again! After I sell into a stable coin I might put all holdings into Soil, (Worth Checking out) and earn 8%, and hopefully have a retirement. I wish you the best!
Thank you very much! I wish you the best also life-changing wealth this bull market! **** not financial advice, only entertainment purpose **** There's a channel on youtube called Quant Bros (very bullish bias, of course) that provides a complete breakdown of all mstr related stuff, they have 13 videos so far They seem to have made millions and some tens of millions of $ already on mstr through options or shares and still rolling over to new options and shares holdings we like the stock --------- Institutions are buying ibit and fbtc and other bitcoin spot etf's regardless of btc price, ibit already has over $30B inflow and fbtc has 10 or 15B, i haven't looked and that's in less than 1 year the bitcoin spot etf's have crushed all etf records since etf's first started 30 years ago.... not even close First year is usually the start, so over the next 5-10 years, the inflows will increase, even if bitcoin is 100k, 200k, 500k, 1M or higher If you want to know who's buying, they release 13F filings every quarter, pension funds, banks, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, goldman sachs, morgan stanley, wealth fund managers, 100k/btc is just a drop in the bucket for them ----------- On a bullish bitcoin bit, mstr is doing a $42B buy of bitcoin over the course of 3 years, that's like a permanent bid on bitcoin from mstr alone a little over $1B of bitcoin buying every month but on a shorter time frame, we just gotta enjoy some kind of probabilistic scenario like the one put on this short video, as Blackrock ibit's options will start trading this coming Friday... If there is a change on the bitcoin spot etf's where they do in-kind and mstr uses ibit options to exercise then do bitcoin redemptions, we could see btc rip up to 400k in a short time and mstr hitting $5k/share and I'll make $10M on my options position instead of $1M pretty wild, why not?
Yes you have to consider who is going to be buying bitcoin at these levels...the days of loading up a prepaid credit card because the banks blocked buying crypto are over. That said there are trillions of dollars out there...billions in gold alone. Canadian banks blocked the purchase of crypto with debit/credit cards after the 20k run in 2018, because they deemed it too risky, but they would let you blow up your account on a 0 dte in 10 minutes. https://www.investopedia.com/news/canada-banks-ban-users-buying-cryptocurrency/ If banks start to feel threatened there is no telling what kinds of regulations could be implemented. Also, if it dips to the blue zone in the rainbow we are back to 60ks.
@johnarb @NoahA @semperfrosty @Tokenz AI Overview No, buying options does not increase the price of the underlying asset, but it can increase the value of the option itself. Has GME taught us nothing? There is also no guarantee price will increase/squeeze when the contract is delivered either. See FTD's and etf redemption wrappers if you are interested in actually understanding the inner workings of financial instruments versus just quoting random talking heads. I realize this may be a little too advanced for the crypto crowd. Let's not forget that NONE of them forecasted the recent pullback to 67k, and I believe you even posted a screenshot AFTER the fact of someone trying to explain it was due to a drop in inflow...now price is up they are all jumping on the bandwagon again...its laughable. If any on them had any clue where price is going they would be trading quietly in their basements like BNF.
You entire post strikes me as rather negative. I do agree that at 100k, there might be a significant pullback, but you have to remember, that you are selling bitcoin to buy fiat. What exactly do you think is going to be happening in the world over the next few years? Do you have faith that budgets will be balanced and that debt will be slowly repaid? I keep saying this one point, but I think its most important. The US is running a $2T deficit, and that is just to maintain some level of positive GDP, while a significant amount of people are suffering. So even 2T of borrowing isn't enough to keep this going. The future will require even more money printing. So you're going to be trading your bitcoin for the shit that they will have to print in greater and greater quantity? I do worry that when shit hits the fan, they might not be eager to re-accelerate liquidity right away, so we will see all assets get hammered, and as always, bitcoin will be hit first. They might even let deflation take hold, scared to introduce even more bubbles. But none of this will last long in my opinion and it will be political suicide. When you say you'll probably never look at bitcoin again, I think you're missing the whole point of bitcoin. You're only looking at it as a trade. Bitcoin wouldn't be where it is if the value proposition wasn't what it is. I fully believe that it will underpin the entire financial system. Yes, there will likely be a pullback at $100k, but I also believe that people will be selling houses and putting all that into bitcoin, and I believe that governments will be accumulating bitcoin. I can very easily picture the race to accumulate as much bitcoin as you can over the next few years. If you consider all the assets in the world are about $900T, shouldn't the hardest money that was ever created get to at least $100T? So much value in real estate and zombie companies will flow out of their sectors and into bitcoin.
Oh ok, looks like you are done being a troll. We can talk like normal people now. And, so you know, with Trump as president he will be more crypto friendly than Biden was. Because all these attacks on crypto were not just from the SEC but from Bidens administration. And banks have already started to accept crypto transactions, and are also looking to be a part of it. Yes and you're right about the ETFs. We are also on the verge of going into a huge supply demand, because the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is starting to run very low. We will wait and see, I just don't want to be one of these people that never sell and end up not taking profits because of being too greedy. Or maybe just sell a little bit near 150K and see what else happens. I bought at 20K so there is enough room for error. My post was not negative, but rather I was trying to be realistic. Because I know that from past experience with Bitcoin we have huge pumps, and then, huge dumps. And with all these institutions buying and ETFs, what is going to happen when everyone sells? It can only be defined as a huge 'Death Drop'. Do you reallly want to be someone that is still holding after everyone sold because you think "The price might go higher"? And that's the thing, if you don't start making a plan now, you will never sell because your emotions will take control when it's peaking Also, Bitcoin will never be a currency. It is a store of value. If you want a crypto that is a good currency, look at Solana. Thousands of transactions per second with almost no transaction fees. And if you don't ever sell your Bitcoin, then what is the point of holding? Eventually the United states will come up with something for inflation, there is already a stable token in progress, World Coin is supposed to be the name of it.