I think the 3 most important effects on BTC's price currently: 1. Constant selling pressure from miners. That is at least 1000 extra coins every day (assuming they sell half right away) looking for new money, that is an extra 17 mill bucks needed, again, every day... 2. Institutions now can invest in Bitcoin via futures (not to mention cheaper), thus they don't have to buy it outright. Extra demand is much less than before. 3. The Bulgarian and Japanese governments unloading tens of 1000s of coins.
According to the https://goo.gl/XdJFTu about 130-150k coins trades every day. So 1k coins is less than a percent of ADV and will have a negligible effect. LOL. If you buy an S&P futures, you don't think the stocks will go up? PS. Personally, I feel bearish simply because I think rally fatigue gotta be setting in at these levels and some ground has to be given. Korean regulations have to also weigh a little. But arguments above (maybe excluding liquidation by governments) don't really hold water. PPS. If the major coins sell-off 50%-70% I'll probably add a little to my stash. At these levels I got all I want.
Agree. I really hope we dump hard before Dec-31, then we have a fresh 2018 to rally again to ever moving ATH's. {Tax-wise that would be great as well....}
4. Current holders and buyers are in it to sell it , the public , the average Joe who just joined the hype , they bought it to sell it . BTC is under huge selling pressure .
I think the argument to be used here instead of the ADV was: 16 mill a day is very little compared to the world wide interest in bitcoin. Still, my point stands that there are 1K more coins to be sold than bought every day and these coins are getting more expensive as price raises, so more money needed to keep the price at the same level.Look at it this way: every year 6+ billion bucks new money is needed to support the current price. It is exactly like Tesla! We don't know just have well arbded bitcoin and futures are. Also, just because institutions bought shitload of ES that doesn't mean the market didn't fall from time to time. You can't just keep the market up by buying futures. Since BTC futures are cash settled they are not more connected than weather futures to the outcome of tomorrow's temperature. But thanks for trying actual arguments instead of personal attacks, I appreciate it. I forgot this: 4. Some of the alt coins are getting really good publicity and returns taking capital away from bitcoin. AKA competition raising. As they go up exponentially, they are taking away investment capital exponentially too. Remember LTC taking away $5 per coin a year ago, now it is taking away 50 times more.
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4129397-bitcoin-series-7-endgame Interesting in-depth analysis of some of the structural risks of the BTC network. The aspect of digital lock-picking of inert addresses, the similarities to diamond marketing and the numbers around electricity consumption are well-defined risks.
volume on XBTf8, which I believe is the Jan contract has been somewhere around 400 to 1k. It is 1k today so far. what would be considered respectable volume ?? thanks