THIS is why you guys lose money because you can't even see what's right in front of your face! Let's forget about the intricacies of EW which is a phenomenal forecaster as I have shown...even simple triangles are telling you what future price is going to do lol. I don't know how you guys can trade so blind lol...it would be like stumbling around in the dark.
You're right that everything is on the blockchain, but the trouble is that Coinbase is the custodian for so many of these ETFs. I'm not even sure if when bitcoin was coming out of grayscale and into ETFs, if this was all done internally at Coinbase, or if Grayscale had to actually sell the coins which were then bought up by Coinbase on behalf of ETFs like IBIT. This info is of course out there, but I'm not well versed on the specifics. But I will say this. Bitcoin's network is 100% transparent, and I would hope the custodians are as well. Many of these ETF issuers are looking into doing proof of reserves, which I think would be welcome. Also, it is suggested that a company as big and important as Blockrock would in no way be risking their name to do rug pulls. I think I even saw a post where they asked Coinbase to make settlements for the day within 12 hours. But I honestly have no idea what this means if Blackrock never actually holds the keys and just trusts Coinbase that the BTC at certain addresses are theirs. Further to this, the Bitcoin company River has an amazing Proof of Reserves model along with Proof of Liabilities. I saw the guy from River on a podcast and he explained how using just your email address, you can verify in a crytographic way that the reserves do actually cover your portion, and there was something similar to showing proof of liabilities. They also have this system where they automatically have to transfer bitcoin from addresses in order to prove they have access to that bitcoin. As Bitcoin grows, I think this will become even more important and transparent. Banks that will custody bitcoin will I think absolutely have to prove to their customers that they have their bitcoin. Its not going to work like it does now where the bank tells you that you can't withdraw your money because they don't have it, and their investments are down, so they only have 70% of assets against the deposit liabilities. Lastly, and this is perhaps most important, where is all the bitcoin coming from? This question pops up all the time on Twitter. Whales absolutely have to be selling. When Germany for example sold 40k or 50k bitcoins, it got absorbed fairly quickly. Maybe big buyers stepped in to cushion the blow, and maybe they now redistribute it when prices stabilize. I honestly have no idea. But I fully believe that this network is the future. There will come a supply shock at one point, and the true value of bitcoin will be realized. Maybe some major custodian goes down, and people learn the importance of self custody. This time, it might even cause price to spike rather collapse if a major player goes down. Gold could easily already be worth $10k per ounce, but because there is no way to verify who has what, its a dead idea to me. Nobody can verify what the US has, and its supposedly the largest holder. With bitcoin, this will all be easy to do, but we likely need the tide to go out in order to bring this to light. For the record, I don't think there is anything too shady going on just yet. The fact that we have been going sideways means that lots of people are likely selling, and this will repeat again at $73k, and also likely $100k to a large extent. But at the same time, I fully believe that a large portion of real estate money, as just one example, needs to come into bitcoin, as will treasury money of large corporations. There is imply no way to for money like this to come into an asset class that is only $1T without the price shooting up drastically. MSTR is worth what... $47B or something like this based on about $16B in bitcoin? But this is 252,000 coins. Apple or Microsoft could easily spend $16B tomorrow to buy bitcoin because of how large their treasury is, but where will they get 252,000 bitcoins? Its honestly going to get very, very difficult for any company to accumulate 100,000 coins (and hence catch up to MSTR), and its also going to be very difficult for any individual for own more than 1 bitcoin once the entire world wakes and realizes they need bitcoin. I am waiting for the government to provide the catalyst. If you look at the accumulation via ETFs, the buying every week is relentless, and at some point, the supply will be exhausted, and at exactly that same time, governments will introduce something stupid in order to signal massive liquidity. On top of this, there might be some custodian or exchange blowup, and the rush to withdraw bitcoins will be on. It will be the perfect storm. This is no different than a bank run. Even the FED agreed the other day that bankruns in the current environment are easy. We saw last year about $30B leave a bank in one day, which caused it to collapse. But no problem, the government can just print to cover the hole, and they did via the BTFP program meant to calm the banking sector. At one point, I think over $100B was borrowed to ensure no other banks had major withdrawls. Its easy to do now because its all electronic. Bitcoin can of course facilitate the need to withdraw very easily, but will the coins be there? The Fed or government cannot print them. Last time Bitcoin dropped in price when FTX didn't have the 80,000 coins they say they did. Next time, bitcoin will go to the moon if there is an exchange blowup because the coins that you have your private keys for will be worth exponentially more than the coins that no longer exist in your exchange account. Oh.. and one more point. I know that these ETFs are also looking to one day do "in kind redemption". They just need the regulators to get on board. So can you imagine IBIT for example who has lets say 300k bitcoins all of a sudden now able to send this onchain to thousands of people who have over 1 BTC exposure? This will surely bring to light any "paper" bitcoin or rehypothecated bitcoin, and if there is any discrepancy, Bitcoin will instantly go to the moon.
If 1 bitcoin is worth a billion dollars then a company would only need to hold 1 coin...potential supply problem solved by simple supply and demand. I think what we should be talking about here is that IF the government feels that companies are hoarding coin that could be generating them hefty taxes, they could implement an unrealized gains tax on crypto, which would force these companies to sell their coins to pay the taxes owed. Currently this is only be floated for assets over 100M but they could easily make it across the board, and only for crypto. https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereks...ing-economy-killer-proposal-on-ultra-wealthy/ Powell gets it: “(Bitcoin) It’s more a speculative asset that’s essentially a substitute for gold rather than for the dollar.” If other countries switch to bitcoin, the states might have to as well. "Prior to 1971, the US dollar was backed by gold. Today, the dollar is backed by 2 things: the government's ability to generate revenues (via debt or taxes), and its authority to compel economic participants to transact in dollars." https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...ny-other-countryso-why-arent-they-selling-it/ Bitcoin distribution around the world:
Bitcoin is only a tool to keep track of value. How high it goes will be a function of how much adoption there is. If the entire world begins to understand that any other method to keep track of value is corrupt, then bitcoin should easily go to hundreds of trillions of dollars. It's pretty simple really. If you go to work, what are you willing to accept as payment? If its the USD, and you constantly see they print more of it, that's a pretty dumb trade. Gold is of course wonderful because we all know that to get 1 ounce of gold out of the ground, someone had to work very hard for it. It has universal appeal. But its also very difficult to use, and you can't really keep track of how much of it there is out there in order to value it properly. Everything else that we talk about when it comes to bitcoin is built on top of this. When you truly understand this first simple principle, there is no need to discuss the idea of it being a speculative asset or anything like this. Its simply the best ledger for the world and that's it.
I'm sorry. Who has the 2008 Lambo??? You guys act like you have some authority knowledge on bitcoin you don't know s***. Listen to the people with the lambos. Everything you're saying was the whole reason Bitcoin has reached the levels we are current at. If you didn't load up on bitcoin in 2019 then you shouldn't be talking about Bitcoin.
What is wrong with being late? In fact, most of the world still needs to get on board. The good thing is that nobody is late. Once you switch to a system that can't be manipulated, everyone wins, except for the manipulators. If you truly understood the implications of this, you wouldn't talk like you do.
Edit 2019. If you couldn't determine after that retrace that it was buy time. You are disqualified from ever discussing Bitcoin. This whole Epiphany you and johnard are having right now has been known by early hodlrs for years.
I didn't seriously look into bitcoin until 2021... so sue me! But wallstreet didn't start looking into it until 2024... so there is also that. Treasuries of major companies aren't going to start looking into it until 2025. When will governments of other nations get on board? Everyone is free to join whenever their level of understand is sufficient enough.
Comes down to not when you bought it, but when did you hear about it. That's why I say the smartest traders are retail... They got in early before Wall Street, governments, hedge funds, banks... everybody.
Come on... you can't blame anyone like this. For the record, I think I heard about it in late 2009 even but thought that I don't want to fry my computer by leaving it running 24/7 mining. Plus, if I recall, the software at the time was all line based, not GUI, so that was over my head. I next considered it in 2012 when I was buying silver. Instead of spending $1000 on 3 silver bars, I thought I could maybe get 10 BTC for $100 each at the time. But alas, I didn't know how to buy it and figured I don't want to go to jail since it was mostly used for drugs. Then in 2020 and 2021, you see me here arguing with John. I was angry each time he was posting when bitcoin went up another $1k higher. You can literally follow my posts and notice the change in my thinking. At work, nobody gets its. People I talk to are sometimes open to it, but they don't do anything. But I wouldn't call them dumb. People see the light when they are ready for it. They talk about real estate and all this other bullshit, but in time, it will be impossible to ignore.