The only thing saving the Bitcoiners at this point is the stock market. As soon as there is the slightest smudge of weakness in stocks, say bye Felicia!
I'm not an expert on options but I had a position from 2 years ago on MSTR that was down 90% from $27k investment to $2.3k at the low in October/Sept 2023 and went on to do a come back all the way to over $120k (cashed out at over $60k value) (used some of the profits for the next play below) I had a position on MSTR calls 6 month duration that was down 85% from $40ksh to $6.5k m2m value at the low went to over $1M m2m value within 2 months (cashed out at over $700k profit) When I say position above, those are multiple call options, I'm just giving the exact position values Of course on both instances the delta was very low at the low maybe 5 basis points or lower, and close to 1 when it went ditm Just a comment on IV you mentioned, both plays were probably in the order of a six-sigma event, no? $2.3k to $120k is over 5000% and it happened within a short time Oct-Jan $6.5k to $1M is over 15,000% and it happened within 2 months Jan-March My comment is that extrapolating probabilities outcomes based on IV or delta is probably not going to be accurate in the real world For example in the first mstr call options position which was initiated in the middle of a bear market June of 2022, the greeks would be far different during the bull market Which goes to a related situation on the 2nd mstr call options position as mstr NAV premium kept expanding as bitcoin kept going up, forcing hedge players to short mstr and buy bitcoin thinking it would compress, it did not, it's at the highest premium mstr share price to NAV bitcoin treasury at the moment Which leads me to my last point regarding price of anything... I've been fortunate to experience too many bubbles, since it's frequent in crypto assets... When you cite those numbers as they relate to probabilities of $100k/btc occurring before eoy, I believe they are a picture of what the current price movements have been for the past 12 months, easily 5 months of those have been during the doldrum market period (Sell in May and go Away) What I'm trying to say is that there is a price reflexivity that happens during periods of high NGU (numbers go up) or another way to say it is during FOMO periods As price goes up, the more people buy ,the faster the price moves, the more people buy... It happened with NVDA recently, happened in DeFi summer cryptos, happened in NFT's, happened in L1's, bitcoin, solana, ethereum, ftm, happened in meme coins, pepe, bonk, doge, shiba inu With bitcoin, it's also got the Veblen premium as the price goes higher, the wealthy want it more for their SoV allocation similar to collectibles, arts, paintings
recency bias The past 5 months are usually choppy with a downward bias Things are about to change starting as early as this week (Fed meeting and interest rate cut) A flood of incoming liquidity A strong period for all investments Q4 new bitcoin supply has dramatically decreased by half the past 5 months Put all together, even if the demand returns to the same as the first quarter of this year, the supply has been reduced which will result in a very strong price upward movement Two weeks to Uptober, then Moonvember then Mooncember I will not post the chart of the previous bitcoin halvings Q4 results, let's just wait and see
Still holding onto my plan of refusing to add any more deltas this month to the main trading account. This week we have Fed Minutes which 'could' add a lot of fear/greed to the wind-gage, so I'm keeping the ship steady as she sails for now.
Is this guy actually being serious lol?? I looked it up and bitcoin and silver were $35 in 2013...today, that's a 168471% increase for bitcoin and a 11.4286% decrease for silver. Bitcoin and gold were $1200 in 2017.