I missed that, must be someone I have on ignore. Probably my friend John. Can you imagine ET without name calling. How will you make your point without cursing out the poster you disagree with?
I've never owned a bond but the investors I know who have a portion of their investments in bonds don't put the entire bond allocation in the 10 year then wait ten years to cash it in. They ladder in and out every year. Rince and repeat. If I knew I needed cash a year from now for a major purchase I would buy a moneymarket fund or term deposit to guarantee that I had that amount fo cash availabke when I needed it. I certainly would not buy bitcoin because I don't know where it will be trading a year from now.
I’m in it baby… thanks to @johnarb. I was in the 255 plus % . Now a touch lower. edit : 216% currently
The post from semperfrosty that started the whole thing specifically talks about an alternative Store-of-Value for the bond investors According to all the bond experts, there has been a bubble in bond for many years, but when it popped, the ET bond apologists say it is hindsight The words bubble and risk-free are contradictory The ET bond apologists would explain that if you purchased a US 10yr treasury with 50 basis points in 2020 that there is no loss as long as you hold to maturity Then why is there a secondary market for it? It seems like a very bad investment, 50 basis points per year for 10 years but the current US 10yr treasury will give you more than 8x interest comparatively speaking With inflation so high, it was and is one of the worst investments to have your money locked in for the next 5.5 years But the bond apologists will say you will get your money back $100k in 5.5 years, just do not take a loss and sell it now If a bond investor is looking to put $100k today in a newly-issued 10yr treasury with an interest rate of 4.30%, how safe would that be? Clearly it is not risk-free as the Fed promised rate-cuts with none delivered so far, what if inflation starts to go up again and the Fed is forced to raise interest rate instead of cutting Would that be hindsight? No, it means there is a risk and ET bond apologists calling government bonds as risk-free are lying Investors will figure it out. The $130 Trillion of money invested in bonds will figure it out. There is no risk-free investment On a related note, MSTR has issued convertible notes 3 times in the last 5 months and they have been oversubscribed every single time even though the interest rate is less than 1% and much lower than US Treasuries ET bond apologists take note
After tormenting the Bitcoiners for years, unbothered by any words and seemed to revel on triggering others... The one thing that really hurt Frederick the most is if you asked him the current price of a newly-issued 10yr treasury purchased in 2020 at 50 bips interest lmao
I offer my apologies, I was taking a shortcut ET bond apologists = ET posters who defend bonds as investments And to tie this to the Bitcoin price thread... (government) bond investors are exactly the type of investors who will get hurt by central bank fiat debasement Bitcoin fixes this
Are we seriously just going to ignore this amazing feat? I can keep re-posting this until I get my kudos.
I looked into puts but I think they were expensive...anybody have historical data so we can backwards engineer? Oh yeah now I remember the spreads were ridonculous. Here is a similar scenario just not as long for the July26 BITO 20 strike...BITX the same. Even if you eat it, now your break even is 18.98 Look how price has to move to make any money lol...what a racket. 10 BITO Jul26 $20 puts @ .79
This will be a hard pill to swallow for some of you, but be prepared for 50K. Not saying that's a certainty, but the probability is high, considering that we've traded down to 56K once already.