Which can be determined from any start point to any end point. Unless you can provide an unequivocal, universally applied arbiter of such H-H, L-L is the only way to apply it?
It is, but Coinbase is doing lots of things internally, so that is one problem. They have a lot of retail customers, and are the custodian for almost all of these ETFs. Only only ETF publishes their address so we can see the total of coins held and the flow. El Salvador has also published their address I think. I have seen lots of posts lately about the many coins being taken off of Coinbase. Obviously it will never go to zero as people are either too scared to self custody or want to be able to trade in and out, but the lower this number goes, the better. Bitcoin gives us the most transparency that we have ever had, but we probably need more time for all the coins to end up in stronger hands before these flows become more of important. When you really think about it, if major supply happens at 60-70k, its much better than at 100k or higher. This amount of selling at a higher price would cause prices to drop faster. Eventually, the coins to get distributed more, and if they get distributed at these lower prices, chances are the new owners might hold for much higher. If I was an OG with the idea that I want to support bitcoin adoption, I'd make a bunch available now, so more people can participate in the price appreciation. I know that's too altruistic, but it almost makes sense. If bitcoin is really going to where we all think its going, even 0.1 bitcoin will be a huge fucking deal when it underpins the entire financial system.
At the same time, here's another interpretion. First, not everyone is a HODL, and watching Nasdaq and other equities hitting ATH just about everyday while BTC is just sloshing around is no fun. I think they're losing their patience. In any case, let's see if 60K will hold, which I'm pretty certain we'll revisit soon. In my view, we shouldn't even be trading down here for the Nth time (sorry, I lost count).
Unless this happens to be the intermittent top. Not saying it is, but I feel the stock market is getting very frothy at the moment. Should the equity market roll over and tanks, you know Bitcoin will fall off the cliff as well. You can no longer deny the fact that BTC can insulate itself from the stock market.
You dont think they will hold it as a store of value? I see bull catalysts as its capped supply and increasing demand. Is supply and demand not a thing anymore?
A senate bill passed "A Senate bill meant to fund U.S. intelligence operations included a section borrowed from an earlier bill aimed at preventing the use of cryptocurrency to support terrorism." (Senate Bill Could Open Crypto to U.S. Sanctions, but Industry Trying to Head It Off (coindesk.com) Those are the rules that US Treasury Deputy Adeyemo asked so that they could pursue stablecoins that claim to be backed by US dollars, but try to escape the US regulatory regime. AND THE NEXT day the CEO of Coinbase personally goes lobbying to the senate. This thing is ROTTEN to the core. This is beyond Banana-republic levels of corruption. If they have an infinite ponzi money printer that can be used to prop up the prices, there is no way the price can dump. Things can change stocks might dump and then naturally Bitcoin would also falter. But so far the funding rates are low(sentiment kind of bearish), but charts still kind of bad, so probably going down a tad lower (but not a full collapse yet and ATHs seem probable). Don't get me wrong, once the conditions change, Bitcoin will find itself below $10K very quickly and Tether will go under.
I agree fully and short term, I'm more bearish than bullish now. I think Bitcoin is front running a major correction, and since it's so liquid, it's the first one to be sold. We will likely need a major printing response from the Fed in order to stimulate new highs. But because everyone expects them to print, maybe they will try a bit of austerity first.
The bitcoin whales are buying Who's selling? mostly retail who bought in 2021 above 50k and happy to cash out now, also Bitcoin miners who are no longer competitive since the halving 2 months ago closing shop and selling their bitcoins to settle debts and obligations
I'm happy to see any bullish news, but there really have been far too many rejections at 72/73k, which is not too high above the previous high. So strictly from a Price Action point of view, this is concerning. Below is a quick chart of how I see things. It seems like when the rally is solid, in past examples, there is no trouble breaking out. If retail is in fact selling, that sucks, because what we really want is for those coins to be dispersed more widely. We don't want the whales having too much to be able to dump again at a later date. I think Bitcoin in more hands is exactly what we need for mass adoption.