I guess my thinking is that bitcoin going to $1M isn't going to happen in a vacuum. When it gets there, it will be because so much is going wrong. This is why I keep saying that the government is going to push it there because of the stupidity of policies, and not that bitcoiners somehow just manage to create the most spectacular campaign. It will also likely be the result of other major players accepting bitcoin. Consider that the Fed has to do yield curve control, and buy up most of the treasuries that they are issuing, very much like the state that Japan is in. US can of course never default, and USD will be the last fiat currency standing But knowing that someone has to buy the debt, and knowing that the bonds can't be trading at 10-20% yields, the Fed will have to step in and monetize all the debt. This will tell most people to just buy bitcoin instead of US debt. And frankly, this is my best case scenario. Lets look at the facts. US is gonna be about $2T or more in deficit this year. At 5% rates, the interest expense is already the number 1 item. There is no war right now and apparently a good economy. Going forward, there is no ability to cut any spending. The only release valve is cutting interest rates. This if course ramps up inflation, unless the economy is so bad, that nobody is buying anything so inflation doesn't rise. If the economy is this bad, GDP is negative (if they even print this), and then tax receipts are even worse, and still the debt can't be paid. There is no scenario where something doesn't break over the next couple of years. I guess we could see the biggest deflationary collapse where they don't do anything. They let asset prices fall, bitcoin tanks, everyone is unemployed, nobody can pay back debt, but cash is king and US treasuries are like gold. But how strong will the US be when everyone is in a great depression? So I don't see this as likely.
I think we likely just need to break 73k, and there will be no looking back. One more higher high, and even more people won't be able to ignore it. Of course there will be profit taking at 100k, but each successive higher high brings in more people. If OG's want to dump, there will be more lemmings, more funds, more nation states, all ready to buy. As much as it sucks to be sitting through this action, as you said, we are down at 60k and everyone thinks its over. The drawdowns have still been the smallest for this cycle. That could change, but if we make a higher high soon, and the drawdowns remain the smallest, it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume this cycle will be huge. And I also think the cycles will be broken. I really do think mass adoption is coming faster than people think. Maybe as Arthur Hayes says, everything will go to shit after the massive bull run, but I think this cycle we see major structural changes in the monetary system, and how this impacts the role of bitcoin and geo politics and US treasuries, etc, I don't know. I can just feel that major changes are upon us, and kicking the can down the road is no longer possible. I don't know if its a deflationary collapse or something close to hyperinflation, but people are mad, everything sucks, information is out there, and more and more people are getting informed. How the authorities continue to control this and pull the strings I have no idea because I don't think they can any more.
Bitcoin is going to $1M with no catastrophic thing happening in the US or in the world Ark (Cathie Wood) has the presentation, the breakdown on how bitcoin goes to $1M is there and there's no mention of any doomsday scenario The big part is investment allocation from all the TradFi wealth The 13F filings are out. They cannot hide BNP Paribas, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Susquehanna and a bunch of other wealth asset managers had to report their bitcoin spot ETF investments They are playing games now, waiting until the very last minute to show their hands, they do not even do any press release, people are digging through the 13F filings to find JP Morgan and other bank holdings Watch this clip from Bitwise insider. It is fucking wild how sneaky the TradFi companies especially the banks at hiding their interest in bitcoin They cannot hide for too long. Every quarter they have to file. And everyone's in a race, end of the year looks like all these doldrums in price will be like when bitcoin was below $20k and always went down whenever it got above it Patience is key. But not greed, or we might offend the ET pussies
No dude, I aint' spreading fear. On the contrary, you're spreading unsubstantiated bull shit. You say we're going to $1M but on what basis? It's nothing but your opinion, just as $40K is only my opinion. So stop with this crap, will ya? BTW manly balls I have 2 already that helped me survive more than 30 years as a trader. Can you last that long? We'll see about that. Anyway, good luck to ya (and I mean it).
Good luck to you too Bitcoin is going to $300k within the next 5 years Bitcoiners are not greedy, we'll take less than 1/3
Well, now that Johnny boy with low esteem jumped onboard, I won't pursue this any further. When will we have a decent banter like grownups? I just wanna say before I go, never underestimate the US government. From what I see, it will be the last bastion standing. It still has plenty of tricks up its sleeves to fight inflation and other woes. Other nations don't have the same privilege, hence they cannot turn their back against the US. As for bitcoin, unless it's able to replace USD as a reserve currency, which is doubtful, it will continue to face an uphill battle with the US government. After all, it is seen as a threat to its sovereignty.
BTC will have to decisively take out the highs of 3 years ago before it can go to $1M. As for Cathy Wood, so far as I know she has the distinction of having destroyed more value than any active manager ever. Her presentations are best ignored.
You're right. No investment provides ownership in anything that produces something. ... Oh wait, I found a few here. But bitcoin is truly special. After all, how many assets create new religions?
Did you just lower your guidance? I'm pretty sure you said elsewhere that BTC will end this decade at $1M.