Seems reasonable. But I don't think crypto needs anything more cataclysmic than a wakeup call to implode. I've got safer toys in my playpen to keep me occupied.
Don't re-balance. 3% risk against 97% of your other-assets portfolio investments is nothing, but when btc hits $1M within 6 years, that 3% will grow to over 30% of your portfolio vis-a-vis how the other assets perform When bitcoin is $5M within 10 years, that 3% will be over 90% of your portfolio Hodl
Laser eyes until $100k/btc Are you back in crypto? Lots of life-changing wealth already with meme coins (still ongoing) but of course I fumbled and sold too early Pepe and Wif, if they do another 10x from here, I might be on suicide watch (/kidding) I am holding popcat, still... Meme coins are a conundrum, no utility, but have become the major utility for blockchain at this time, i.e. liquidity, volatility, activity, speculation, VC's, embrace-the-meme-culture-yo
lol, no meme coins for me, just BTC. I perceive the utility is much like a lottery ticket, also as an inflation sink. I'm sure there are a select few that can make bank, but those not in early not-so-much. My opinion on crypto is that it operates much like a cargo-cult, even BTC. BTC has the most compelling narrative but there is always another animal spirit coin up & coming. My stance towards crypto is having 'strategic ignorance' rn. Maybe playing with smart-contracts and making my own just to understand programming on the blockchain. Just curious about if whether you ever did the numbers on comparing just having held your BTC vs participating in the meme-coin circus casino.
Meme coins are side bets, no way I would risk even 10% of my btc's to put on meme coins, and I did not I used my gambling funds budget, not bitcoins And there is no need to risk that much on any meme coin, there's a wallet right now that bought $140 worth of popcat when it first came out and worth over 9 figures, the address is posted on Twitter (most likely an insider, a popcat dev or team member) lots of addresses on crypto twitter watch, lots of meme coins wealth 7-8 figures $ If you have time and it's brain-twister, try to analyze why the meme coins are happening during this early stage of the bull market and still ongoing Don't look at my previous post and start from scratch with a fresh eyes This cycle has been challenging but is also the most fun. Lots of ups and downs, a lifetime's worth, and for a degen, control the emotions and enjoy the ride I'm taking a bar-bell approach, the riskiest assets and the least riskiest asset in the whole world (bitcoin) Bitcoin is the best! Always be stacking! Go ugly fucking early!
Darn it. I have a confession to make. A week or two ago I said to someone else that arguing with you is a waste of time and the person making the argument is the stupid one because it should be obvious that you aren't arguing in good faith. I have broken my own rule here. You're not dumb, but if you can't see the truly transformational benefits of knowing exactly how much supply there will be of money, and exactly how it will be issued, then I perhaps need to reconsider my opinion of you. Look, the Fed keeps saying they will be data dependant going forward when it comes to interest rates. They are trying to instill confidence in the markets about their own ability. They understand the markets need rules and structure, and yet, everything they do is more sporadic than a woman on her period. The fact is that bitcoin would only need to do just one thing better than the Fed, but it does everything better. Everything can be easily audited, and all future supply is known. It would be like the government saying "this year, we collected $5T in taxes, so this is how much we have to spend, and not a penny". But of course it doesn't work like this. Imagine if the government could only spend the amount of Bitcoin it collected via taxes (since they can't print any more), and then this is all it had to use to run all the programs it needs to run. This sounds horrible, doesn't it? (sarcasm of course) But you want to continue to fight for the exploitation of not only US citizens but also every other country in the world that the US does business with, and all of this is to enrich the elite that run the show. So you keep supporting this. I'm out.
I honestly don't know what is happening with Tether. Based on how it's supposed to work, they should be taking in USD and minting the USDT on a 1:1 basis. There is a chance they were printing in the past, but I honestly don't think so at this point. The fact that the 2022 bear market didn't take them down means that they are likely untouchable at this point, just like Fort Knox and all the supposed gold that is stored there. There will never be an audit of either. But now that interest rates have been so high, they have been making very good profits, so any deficiency in their backing is likely going to be plugged. Also, as John explained to me a long time ago, lots of USDT is locked up in contracts and squirrelled away in so many places that the fear of significant redemptions just doesn't exist. This of course creates moral hazard, and they operate more like a bank who doesn't actually have your money even though they say they do. I personally wouldn't hold significant amounts of USDT, and never for long term holding, but I know access to a digital dollar has major benefits to many people around the world. But contrast all of this with what the US does. The printing isn't hidden, its right in your face. When congress spends and nobody wants to buy this debt, the Fed has to step in to print dollars to buy it. I think the stat is that since Covid, 40% of all money has been created. That means an instant 40% devaluation because of supply issuance. Imagine if the Fed couldn't print dollars to buy the debt, but instead, it all had to get auctioned off and bought by someone. Where would the rates be for this toxic debt that will never be paid back? We can see foreign buying of UST has steadily gone down over the years. It is slow, but obvious.
I just read Peter Brandt say something similar, but different. He was shorting ETH futures this weekend, but not spot he said because of too much counter party risk. If the market goes against him, he will buy spot, I guess since this is a 24hr market, and then exchange it for the futures position on Monday. But I think this just means the profit on the spot purchase on say Saturday night will offset the futures loss that he will incur when he closes the position on Monday morning. At any rate, yes, I'm sure there is lots of complex shit going on. But I'm certain that at some point, major players will prefer using Bitcoin over USD for payments and savings, and then the real fun begins with price. There are many countries that have been decimated by taking on USD loans. Its like going to a loan shark. If you can get better terms with someone else, you do it when you can.
I would think that the price would have to become more stable to become a prefered currency. I don't think I would want to deal in a currency that can fluctuate +10% in a week.