I get the feeling that Bitcoin investors are hedging with Gold. Not textbook BTC protcol but not the craziest idea either.
(Bloomberg) 4/22/24 And finally, here's what Joe’s interested in this morning There are a few things on my mind this morning. The first is the chart of Nvidia. This thing rocketed straight higher for so long, it's not surprising to see it eventually take a real leg down. The stock is off about 20% from its recent high in late March. Since narrative follows price, expect to hear a lot more talk about whether or not the company's dominance in AI is really as unassailable as people have been lead to believe. For fun, here's a chart of Nvidia and Bitcoin together. There's a lot of denial about the fact that Bitcoin trades as a risk asset, and not as a momentum tech stock. But the chart is pretty clear here. Plus even beyond this chart, you can just look at how Bitcoin behaves every time there's something fresh about geopolitical risk (it goes down). One thing I've been wondering about is whether Bitcoin's correlation to risky assets will increase now that the ETF exists, and it (presumably) is traded as a component of conventional portfolios. It's probably too soon to say on that.
Liquidity begets liquidity. I used to think Tech stocks especially the high-growth high P/E or high P/S and bitcoin are competing for the same amount of investment capital... I believe that liquidity is compounded, for example the higher the paper profits in Tech stocks, the more wealth effect and risk will go to bitcoin and when there is a severe correction in Tech stocks, the same type of investors also own bitcoin and crypto assets and may sell some of their holdings to raise liquidity Unfortunately (for us bitcoiners and crypto bros), the severe correction in cryptos do not translate to enough selling of Tech stocks to make a noticeable difference tl;dr, I am rooting for a bull market in Tech stocks, good for bitcoin and crypto assets Anyway, I think that there will be a lot of liquidity coming soon (or increase even more), and will be good for all assets owners and investors. Bull markets everywhere, PS, the bitcoin spot etf's are a massive game-changer for bitcoin, which never had this stream of funds coming from wall street investors, I have big number targets for the next 2 years for bitcoin
Technologically speaking Bitcoin is a glorified spreadsheet. It's price is a ponzi scheme propped up by fake Tether dollars. It's liquidity is very thin. When it inevitably collapses everyone will be trying to get out at once and price will fall off the cliff. The ETF sellers will be unable to unload, the network will likely be congested and you won't be able to send to exchanges. Get out and sell before it's too late and it crashes to $5000.
I am saying because it seems like they might take down the Tether fraud soon. Watch out for Tether printer. If they print more Tethers, they are going to try pump the price up first but eventually it will get slaughtered. In my mind without the Tether fraud, Bitcoins value is at around $5000, or that's atleast where big money would step back in. FBI warns Americans against using unregistered crypto money transmitters | The Block
This video is kind of a low blow to his viewers if you ask me. Of course when compared to any Peso, USD is better. He isn't saying anything that most people don't know. Printing money only works well for a handful of countries, and the rest destroy their currencies with this practise, so the USD shines in this regard. But everyone knows that if you store $100 under your bed for 10 years, when you to go use it, you will be shocked with how much value it has lost. So I'm not really sure what point he is trying to make. When your local currency is shit, of course you want the better USD. But when you already have USD, you know how shit it is as well in your own country. So you also need to upgrade. I'm sure that once they start dropping rates, and people can't get a risk free 5%, holding dollars will be seen as costly once again.
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/does-history-make-a-case-that-bitcoin-has-topped/ Does history make a case that Bitcoin has topped? April 26, 2024/by Peter Brandt Judge for yourself It’s called Exponential Decay — and it describes Bitcoin I hate being the bearer of bad news, but data are data. The fact is that the bull market cycles in Bitcoin have lost a tremendous amount of thrust over the years. You may like the story of this data or not — but you will have to deal with it (or at least account for it, adjust for it or just plain ignore it). In fact, I don’t like the Exponential Decay occurring in Bitcoin — Bitcoin is one of my personal largest investment positions. There have been four major bull cycles in Bitcoin, with the current advance the fifth major bull cycle [the advance from cycle low to cycle high shown in brackets]. Dec 21, 2009 to Jun 6, 2011 [3,191X advance] Nov 14, 2011 to Nov 25, 2013 [572X advance] Aug 17, 2015 to Dec 18, 2017 [ 122X advance] Dec 10, 2018 to Nov 8, 2021 [ 22X advance] Nov 21, 2022 to xxx x,, yyyy [high so far is $73,835 registered on Mar 14, 2024] Now, here is where Exponential Decay is showing its ugly head. The magnitude of the 2011-2013 was approx. 20% of the 2009-2011 cycle The magnitude of the 2015-2017 was approx. 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle The magnitude of the 2018-2021 was approx. 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle Worded another way, 80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle has been lost. Applied forward, this would indicate that the current bull cycle will experience an an exponential advance of approximately 4.5X or so (80% of the 22X of the 2018-2021 cycle). Taking a low for the current cycle of $15,473 projects a high for this cycle of $72,723 — guess what — a price that has already been reached. Well, you will ask, what about the halving? Prices have exploded upwards after every previous halving. And that may happen again. But for now we need to deal with the fact of Exponential Decay. It has happened. It is real. You may not want to believe it, but I place a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped for this cycle. If Bitcoin has topped, what’s next you might ask. Of course I have no clue. But, if Bitcoin has topped I would expect a decline back to the mid-$30s, or the 2021 lows. From a classical charting point of view, such a decline is the most bullish thing that could happen from a long-term view. If you want to see an example of such a chart structure, look at the Gold chart from Aug 2020 to Mar 2024. Do I believe the analysis just presented? I don’t want to, but the data speak for itself. End