Not to rub insult to injury (ie. my previous reply), but this has got to be the most dumbest reply I've heard from you to date. Who is hurting whom? I said BTC would go down, and it did go down. Whereas you, on the other hand, kept on saying that BTC can only go up and everyone should simply ignore the market. Well, don't you feel any remorse for those who might have bought at 73K after listening to your over-the-top bullish call? Now they're completely in the red, all thanks to you. Lastly, I hope you know that my response so far has been a muted one, unlike the way I rough handle others at times. And I hope to keep it that way. But it's getting to that point where I feel it might be better to just walk away.
Touche' (Have some cheese, it will make you feel better) Sigh, you're still not learning fast enough. My job is to post only positive vibes on bitcoin, I thought you knew that by now Repeat after me, bitcoin will go to $1M and it does not matter if it takes 1 year or 6 years, and bitcoin will not stop going up Don't worry, I will remind you of the lesson, as you tend to forget Please don't do that. This is an open forum, post what you'd like and others like me will post as well ET is the best
Are you kidding me? The fact that so little supply will be created going forward means that the only way to fix the imbalance is through higher prices. People are excited for this halving because it brings it down to below gold. Apparently about 2% of the gold supply increases every year, and for bitcoin, this will now drop to below 1%. Obviously if there is enough selling this will meet demand, but this isn't the the most logical hypothesis for a bitcoiner. You're a smart guy, so how do you think Blackrock affected the price not reaching 100k? How are they able to manipulate the price? If there is demand for their ETF, they have to source more bitcoin, and this would push up the price. The GBTC selling was mostly absorbed thus far, but its clear that over the past few weeks, the appetite is slowing down and hence we have been in a range for the past month. But I don't see how Blackrock can affect anything. They are actively, from my understanding, pumping up this ETF to get more advisers to buy it. The only fear that I have is that with bitcoin being locked away in the ETFs, there is less circulating supply. The smaller this liquid "float" is, the easier it will be to manipulate price. If the official price of bitcoin is set by cross-referencing the most liquid exchanges, who have maybe 2m coins available for trading, what happens when this gets cut down? What if only 500k coins end up on exchanges? Would it take 4 times as less coins to crash the price? Of course this works in reverse where just a slight imbalance of buying pressure can shoot the price up 100% if there are no sellers. So going forward, with bitcoin locked away in ETFs, and less supply from miners, there will likely be even more volatility. I agree that far too many people are sure we would hit 100k before the halving, and its clearly taking a bit more longer. But if we zoom out far enough, there is no 4 year period where bitcoin wasn't higher after you bought it and waited the 4 years. As for the cycles, I do fear that these might break. Its too easy now to just go long after a 70-80% drop and expect at least a 10x, and also expect this occur at 4 year intervals. Its no different than any chart analysis. Eventually price breaks out of a range, so buying bottoms and selling tops eventually breaks. Likewise with a trendline. Eventually it breaks, and you have to find the new trend and wait for a new channel to establish itself. But the blind zeal I have to really push back on. There is absolutely no way to fix the problems that the entire world is in given this failed fiat experiment. Interest expense is the biggest line on the government balance sheet now. How do you think this will be fixed? The only reason that there hasn't been a collapse this year is because of the insane government spending. The bond market will not let the government spend like this anymore. You've got Yellen making special trips to China begging them not to sell US treasuries. The only way I see bitcoin not going to the moon is for the government to crash the economy and keep everyone poor, refuse to spend money, keep the dollar high, but even then, they would have to keep rates high, and they can't afford them. When the Fed has to start buying the debt it will crash the dollar. There is no scenario in my opinion where even another year can go by without something major blowing up. The elections will obviously be a shit show, but it doesn't even matter who wins. There is no equation you can write that takes into account the parameters of interest rates, debt, deficit, the need to issue bonds, strong dollar, etc. Something will have to break and every scenario is positive for bitcoin in my opinion. I'm honestly not even sure if I should believe inflation or deflation anymore as the path forward. Both sides have a strong case if you ask me, but its kind of like a car that is out of control on the highway. You see it tumbling but you don't know if it will end up in the ditch on the right or left. Inflation is of course really good for bitcoin, and deflation in my opinion will initially be bad as people will sell anything to get dollars. But deflation kills the system, and when a new system is born, I see no reason why it wont be bitcoin. Maybe the price is lower, but as they say, 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin. If asset prices collapse by 90% and people can't pay US denominated debt, the dollar dies, but bitcoin will live on. Do you see any way the government lets deflation happen? If they let deflation happen, if they allow countries to default on US debt, it will be the US who ended up killing the dollar. But even if this is how it ends, people will just use bitcoin at a method of exchange and everything will be priced in bitcoin. So both deflation and inflation lead to bitcoin in my opinion. The inflation route is the more logical one, which means bitcoin goes to a million, and the deflation route is almost the more painful route, but it ensures the dollar dies. Once again, there is no way to "thread the needle" anymore with respect to any monetary or fiscal policy. They can no longer just slowly inflate the dollar at a steady pace. They need to open up the tap full blast and hope this works. There will be no restraint for fear of that deflationary collapse. Remember, even if bitcoin goes to $15k, you can still have millions of sats that one day you can use to buy shit you need. This is why many smart people say the price doesn't matter. Just make sure you have some bitcoin.
Well, why buy it now when I can buy it cheaper later? Plus, if it's really going up to $1M, as I'm told many times by a few members here, what does it matter where you buy? Right? So why have a stinking fit every time I mention there will be a dip? Just chill out and enjoy your temporary loss. I'm sure it'll come right back up.
Very true. Its clearly a range at this point, and it can easily fall out the bottom as a fake out, but as volpri would say, its more likely that price will continue in the direction of the trend after a range. But I think we also have to understand the limit of price action. When the range was forming during March, there was no way to know how the ETF inflows would turn out for example. We never know where future demand will come from. If the demand overpowers the sellers, then no pattern setup will matter as price will have to rise. This is the thing about TA for me at least. Price will continue in a pattern until some external force causes it to change. All we can do is identify what state of the market we are in. But if we are in a range, the breakout that ends up being successful, which could be up or down, wasn't known while the range was forming. So just looking at that chart, its impossible to know which way it will break because that will require selling that hasn't happened yet. This is something I suffer from in my trading. I'm trying to predict which trades will work out, but really, all I can do is enter a trade at the most ideal place and the market either goes in that direction or it doesn't. Here is my point using his chart. Take the time up till now... 3 big up bars. How do we know what happens next unless we are watching it in real time? It ends up being a shallow pullback. Now we look at the next big bull bar. What follows is now a fairly big pullback, and nothing like the one before. So was there any way to know the first pullback will be shallow while the next will be significant? I don't think so. I know some will say the markets tend to have 3 pushes or what have you, but you never really know. So I don't think anyone can say how this range over the past month ends. What we will need is serious buying to keep the price from dropping, and we just don't know today what type of buying will come in.
I submitted the report to Uncle Larry Funk that your chart shows btc will go to $50k and he said to tell you do not worry your pretty little eyes, the whole plunge protection team will not let btc go that low, in fact, he said after the halving in 4 days, that within a month, say 5/25 give or take a few days that bitcoin will be over $150k, guaranteed by Bluerock, take it to the bank I need to remind you again, there's a process to bitcoin going to $1 Million, so it's like this, bitcoin will go to $100k first, then $200k, then $300k and on and on, but there may some pullbacks along the way, got it? Eventually you will get it, don't give up, your public school education is not an excuse, you can still go to adult school special ed
TECH Hong Kong regulators approve launch of spot bitcoin and ether ETFs PUBLISHED MON, APR 15 20248:45 AM EDT https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/15/hon...coin-and-ether-etfs-.html?qsearchterm=bitcoin
Was a genuine query re how you interpreted that specific chart. No 'fit' from me. You,however,seem to have lost your trademark 'cool'.
If price holds @ or above 57-58k it is right in time window of a chart image I posted previously (April 12th-17th) for end of correction - with 4 of 5 waves complete of a higher level ABC.