(Axios) Checking in on bitcoin ETFs Data: Dune; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios The winners and losers in the bitcoin ETF world are becoming clearer after a month of trading, Felix writes. Why it matters: The existence of this new asset class has been cited as the main reason the price of bitcoin has doubled since September. So far, however, the new ETFs in aggregate are responsible for only about $4.8 billion in net bitcoin purchases — a mere 0.5% of the amount of bitcoin outstanding. Why it matters to Felix and Emily: We have a bet on whether bitcoin ETFs, in aggregate, will account for more than 5% of total bitcoin market cap by Jan. 12, 2025. If they do, Felix needs to buy $1,000 of a bitcoin ETF and hold it for five years. If they don't, Emily needs to buy $1,000 of actual bitcoin and keep it in crypto (including stablecoins, if she's so inclined) for five years. Right now, bitcoin ETFs hold 3.73% of total bitcoin market cap. Where it stands: Out of the many new entrants, the ones sponsored by the biggest and most old-fashioned ETF companies — BlackRock and Fidelity — have received the lion's share of the inflows. Most of the money flowing into those funds isn't newly entering the asset class, it's just being transferred from the Grayscale ETF, more than a decade old, that charges much higher management fees. The Grayscale ETF is still larger than all the others combined, owning 454,000 bitcoins. BlackRock is in distant second place with 119,000; Fidelity has 86,000; and no one else has more than 30,000. Between the lines: There's a good reason why most holders of GBTC, the Grayscale vehicle, don't just sell their shares and buy one of the newer ETFs with lower fees. That transaction would trigger capital gains taxes, which would dwarf any annual savings. What's next: The coming months will clarify whether the arrival of BlackRock and Fidelity on the scene will help attract significant new money from the clients of wealth advisers. For the time being, however, those asset managers seem to be better at attracting outflows from Grayscale than they are at drawing new investors into the asset class.
I'm tempted to short at 70K, but if we break through, we are going to shoot way past it into unknown territory. I might just short a portion of my holdings to manage risk.
Forbes reported similarly back last fall:- Shock Crypto Leak Reveals Microsoft Could Be About To Blow Up The Price Of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP And BNB https://www.forbes.com/sites/digita...bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-and-bnb/?sh=362954986986 And reaction was meh!!
Just had a brief look and it does appear that Microsoft is BTC friendly for purchases. Wasnt aware of that.
I started shorting...will be a brief pull back followed by another rise...should get bubbling soon as all the other coins start to act stupid. Everything has gone parabolic, even if it gets to 100k or 125k or whatever the drop will be significant just like that last time!
The risk isn't worth the reward to me. There is also the possibility that we just smash right through the 70K barrier and never stop. It would be worse for me to be out of a position than to miss out on a few thousand dollars. But then of course I can short 25% of holdings which is actually not a bad idea...
Break 70k and never stop?? So I guess it will go up about 1 to 2k a week. 100k a yr will be at 1 million by 2033. Fomo is crazy these days. People buying into hype again. Risk isn't worth the reward. This thing can drop 8k in a few days...rises like this lead to huge drops. We have all seen it....to many think they are invincible in this market.