Bitcoin Price Thread

Illini Trader · Dec 7, 2017

just21 said:
But most people who do not have coin at an exchange will ever collect the fork. It is complicated.
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Actually it is the exact opposite of what you say. Those who have coins in the private wallets get the forks and those on the exchanges are not guaranteed to get the fork.

johnarb · Dec 7, 2017

neke said:
Yes, 10K to 17K. That will withstand the correction? Just laughing. You think bitcoin is a Microsoft, that a 40% correction is abnormal. What about 99.9% correction on the way to extinction? - no I am not saying this week, or next.
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It's ok, we'll agree to disagree, but you didn't ask me how I know you did not perform any meaningful research, because your arguments are superficial and not at all technical in nature. Good luck with your trades.

Clubber Lang · Dec 7, 2017

I have no dog in the fight here.
Just one question-
What if the G7 plus Russia and China announce tomorrow that trading or buying goods with BTC/crypto is a felony?
I know it sounds impossible, but countries and governments will do anything to defend their currency.
I think that could happen when they develop their own cryptos

johnarb · Dec 7, 2017

Gotcha said:
...All you really need is regulation in the US to shut it down...
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I don't know about the other hodlers, but this is the thing that scares me the most.

There are more and more signs that bitcoin will not be banned like the internet poker sites, but still there are no guarantees. I do welcome the bitcoin futures and hope it's very successful so the lawmakers don't get any hostile ideas.

Illini Trader · Dec 7, 2017

Gotcha said:
I have resisted replying in this thread for a long time because frankly, nobody knows anything. Those guys calling for tops are clearly not taking into account mass hysteria, but the perma bulls are also I think very ignorant to the fact of how much can go wrong with this. All you really need is regulation in the US to shut it down, or even some major hiccup by one of these big exchanges. Seriously, anything can go wrong at any time and given the fragmented nature of all of this, there will be no rescue, unlike more traditional investments or holdings.

I also wonder how any of this can have mass appeal when I read about the amount of computer power and electricity that is needed in order to facilitate these transactions. Its a total joke to assume there will be any large scale adoption given these technical issues, and its also a joke to think that governments around the world will not one day come down hard.

Clearly, until something happens, it can keep going up to the moon because all you need is some sucker to pay more, so there could be lots of money still to be made on this parabolic rise, but those guys who sit there with their coins on their computers and not in their wallets might one day find they have something with absolutely no value in the blink of an eye.

I find it quite ironic that in order to trade this, you need to have your coins in a wallet, but while they are in a wallet, they aren't all that safe. There will be lots of people screwed in the end, the guys holding to the very bottom, so the only true winners will be the ones who are lucky to get out. I never hear of anyone selling though. I only hear people excited cause the price is going up, but until you sell and get cold hard cash in your hand, you really don't have anything and shouldn't be excited. Too many exchanges have problems when activity heats up, and during the down move when people want to get out, that's exactly when you want to log in to sell. So it seems to me that this thing is going up only because the long side is the only way to trade this. But once enough people want to take profits, which you clearly have to do at some point, there is no telling how this will end.

To assume that this wont end, to assume that this thing will be mass adopted despite the technical challenges, and to assume that the governments wont do anything about this is really like hoping your lottery numbers come up. The blockchain technology is separate from BTC, and really, I don't see that much use for it when you need shit loads of computer power to get it done. Besides, even if the blockchain technology takes off, there is no guarantee that BTC will go along for the ride. Back when the internet was new and hot, Netscape and AOL were major players, but where are they now? BTC can also be finished, even if the technology gets adopted in some other form.

So in the mean time, I'm not calling for a top, but I'd like to hear after it all ends where the perma bulls stand. Maybe they will be lucky and cash out at 100k, but if they are hanging on for 1 million and it crashes and disappears before then, I hope we get that update too. Not everyone will be a BTC winner.
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You make some good points, and some I disagree with, but I do thank you for a very thought out and intelligent response. This is what should happen here on ET --- a discussion on all aspects of the situation.

johnarb · Dec 7, 2017

Clubber Lang said:
I have no dog in the fight here.
Just one question-
What if the G7 plus Russia and China announce tomorrow that trading or buying goods with BTC/crypto is a felony?...I think that could happen when they develop their own cryptos
More...

The regulations are a big concern as I put on the previous post. Japan has already put in their legal system that bitcoin is valid currency. China doesn't have the same effect. I doubt Russia will either. G7 or the US, yea, that would be bad.

As far nation cryptos, forget about it. It won't work. Why? Because no one's going to use it. Oh, but it's legit approved by the country? Yea, it's the same as their current money, there's no point to having a crypto issued by the same country. Tbh, I'm waiting for the first one to be issued to see if I'm right.

Clubber Lang · Dec 7, 2017

johnarb said:
The regulations are a big concern as I put on the previous post. Japan has already put in their legal system that bitcoin is valid currency. China doesn't have the same effect. I doubt Russia will either. G7 or the US, yea, that would be bad.

As far nation cryptos, forget about it. It won't work. Why? Because no one's going to use it. Oh, but it's legit approved by the country? Yea, it's the same as their current money, there's no point to having a crypto issued by the same country. Tbh, I'm waiting for the first one to be issued to see if I'm right.
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Thanks John
Good luck. HODL! LOL

Zr1Trader · Dec 7, 2017

Regulations eh. Here is something in the works...

"US Senate Bill S.1241 to Criminalize Concealed Ownership of Bitcoin"

https://btcmanager.com/us-senate-bill-s-1241-criminalize-concealed-ownership-bitcoin/

johnarb · Dec 7, 2017

Zr1Trader said:
Regulations eh. Here is something in the works...

"US Senate Bill S.1241 to Criminalize Concealed Ownership of Bitcoin"

https://btcmanager.com/us-senate-bill-s-1241-criminalize-concealed-ownership-bitcoin/
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There's a discussion on Reddit about this. Definition of a financial institution being applied to individuals seems far-fetched and there's division in the reddit comments with some suggesting it's for businesses. I'm on a wait and see mode...

algofy · Dec 8, 2017