I have a huge amount of spare time and I spend it studying markets mostly, I'm up all hours of the day and night. Gold and crypto imo are speculative. Gold in particular has a reputation of being manipulated, mainly via derivatives I believe, as gold derivatives apparently swamp physical gold in size. The story of gold, a store of value, imo is a myth, a convenient myth to sucker in suckers. There is a mathmatical rythm to how markets cycle, a type rubberband machine, it is algo driven with humans corrupting it via fear and greed. However, there is one thing I havent sussed yet, and may never. There appears to be some smart money (insiders/manipulators?) who throw big money into and out at very tops and bottoms, I'm not sure if that is able to be calculated.
All the places you mentioned plus Lebanon, in SE Asia, and many other places, they are going to crypto dollars (stablecoins) Lyn Alden has discussed stablecoins extensively on some of her reports. One of Scott Melker's (YouTube) regular macro analyst, I think it's Mike McGlone has already talked about stablecoins being the killer app for crypto And somewhere in this video, it was discussed that stablecoins is the fastest growing payment method in the biggest store In due time, the ones who need it most will slowly move their long term savings to Bitcoin but the reality of every day life forces them to choose stablecoins as their crypto gateway
We have seen the past years many "smart people" predicting 50K,100K, 1MM or even more. In hindsight it all appeared to be BS.
How many years decades did it it take for Gold @ $2000 to become a reality? Meanwhile Bitcoin did hit 50k and was over 2/3rds of the way to 100k in a little over a decade of existence. Even if it is all based on hype Bitcoin plainly has more of it than the shiny stuff, therefore more likely to attain such "crazy" targets sooner - as its short history shows.
Hey Virt, I realise its all very personal for you,and your determined that this investment idea fails,for whatever reason-you don't have a position in either direction. For me,win lose or draw,I was showing appreciation for the math and insight that people shared.
Reminds me of the definition of a calculator: an instrument where you input two or more seat-of-the-pants estimates, multiply or divide them or whatever, and get accuracy to the 6th decimal place.
If a dozen years ago someone had described where we are today in terms of the Fed's $8 trillion balance sheet and the complete disregard for fiscal discipline among the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government, I wouldn't have believed it. Something's got to give, and the past provides no reason for optimism that the U.S. government will figure things out.
And so Bitcoin is your salvation because...its enthusiasts promise you all kinds of riches? (Refer to previous extrapolations.)
I'll be fine if my small allocation doesn't pan out. Caution is a good thing when it comes to uncertainty. But the emperor truly has no clothes. I'm much more optimistic about bitcoin now at $28K than when it was at its all time highs because of what's gone on with inflation and the inability of the federal government to control spending. The powers that be inspire zero confidence, and the U.S. economy no longer generates the tax revenue needed to fund incompetence at the top. That $31.5T national debt is not going away.