Ok, buddy. I hope you're right because I can see more tears for you every night if Microstrategy is over $2,000/share
I couldn't fail to notice the lack of arguments in your post. Price isn't everything specially when it is going down. Since BTC is just a 2.5 beta tech stock, you can get the same results by going long on margin with NDX. And you don't have to worry about stablecoins, regulations, whatnot.
There's a reason that I sometimes put a disclaimer on my posts. Imho, we have a responsibility to the audience and to others who lack experience or knowledge I know lately I've been saying for you to buy bitcoin and say it's financial advise, but you're a very much informed audience and been around the crypto space for a very long time even longer than I am who got in when btc was already $100 An inexperienced person might see our exchange and think "this Bitcoin is too difficult to understand, but this post from Pekelo about achieving the same results, I can relate to, since I've invested in the stock market and tech stocks for many many years" The person initiates the trade, we get a recession, they get liquidated and lose a significant portion of their portfolio. Or an escalation of the war, nuclear strike is used, we get a flash crash like a 9/11 event same effect Recommending a leveraged position as a proxy for a long-only with no leverage position is dangerous ---------------------------------
Swan Signal Monthly — Vol. 22 Hi there, Welcome to the Swan Signal monthly newsletter. On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 8.5% officially hitting a new 40-year high. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at around $40,000. In other news, the Swan team just got back from an unforgettable week at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. We cover the big themes and announcements from the conference below In this month’s letter: Liftoff: a short essay about Bitcoin A curated list of recent Bitcoin content Behind-the-scenes updates from the Swan team As a reminder, Swan is the best way to buy Bitcoin in the US. Ready to begin investing in Bitcoin? Sign up at Swan and receive $10 in FREE Bitcoin today Liftoff: Bitcoin Goes Mainstream? This past week 25,000+ Bitcoin enthusiasts descended upon Miami for the Bitcoin 2022 Conference (and countless satellite events). 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The best and brightest are flocking to the industry to change the world. What other industry can attract this caliber of global, diverse talent? In many cases, individuals donate their time and talents to support Bitcoin with no expectation to be compensated. How many people work for banks without pay? The writing is on the wall. The Swan team ran the BitcoinerJobs.com booth and we were blown away by the volume of high-caliber people from all industries wanting to work on Bitcoin. Even public intellectuals such as Jordan Peterson and Eric Weinstein are increasingly drawn to Bitcoin. Miami has become an annual pilgrimage for Bitcoiners around the world. People attended the conference to learn, educate, connect, and discuss this revolutionary technology. Here are some highlights from the event: Tesla, Blockstream, and Block team up on solar-powered mining operation Swan partnered with Trezor to provide direct-to-self-custody Bitcoin buys Impervious AI Releases Internet Browser Built On Bitcoin TARO, a new protocol proposed by Lightning labs, to bring stablecoins and scalability to Bitcoin Strike announce Shopify integration and partnerships with NCR and Blackhawk bringing Lightningpayments to major merchants Federated Chaumian Mints: Future of Bitcoin Privacy? There were so many powerful moments, and thankfully Bitcoin Magazine uploaded all the presentations on YouTube. Bitcoin is gaining traction at the nation-state level. Politicians (on both sides of the aisle) and world leaders descended upon Miami to learn about Bitcoin, form alliances, and share in the movement. This was unthinkable just a few years ago… a reminder of how fast Bitcoin is spreading. One of the biggest announcements of the week was Samson Mow’s announcement of pro-Bitcoin legislation in Mexico, Portugal, and Honduras. Geopolitical game theory is heating up. What will happen when more nation-states realize Bitcoin’s benefits? The early days of a revolution This past week was evidence that Bitcoin has indeed gone mainstream. It’s merging with the culture and politics of our time. The number of people finding hope and optimism in Bitcoin continues to grow while faith in our financial and political institutions continues to decline. Bitcoin offers a chance to build a better world and Swan is glad to fly alongside you. Get started today and make your first deposit with Swan. We’ll give you $10 in Free Bitcoin for opening an account with us. Why Swan? Swan is easy to use, fast onboarding time, low fees, and great service. In addition to automated Bitcoin Savings Plans, Swan also offers instant buys up to $10 million, Swan Private for high net worth individuals, businesses, and Bitcoin IRA purchases. What Swan Customers Are Saying We pride ourselves on offering the best client services in the industry. "My mom, who has trouble using her iPhone, was able to set up Swan without any help." - Swan Client "Thank you for your help in setting up my IRA Financial Bitcoin Trust and Swan accounts. The wire cleared earlier this week and I've already purchased Bitcoin." - David “Of all the companies I’ve worked with to purchase Bitcoin, I am most satisfied with Swan. For many reasons including customer service, prices, and others.” - Mark "I reached out to Swan and instead of an email, I got a phone call from Steven…Unheard of customer service." - Swan Private Client Bitcoin Content Showcase Inalienable Property Rights by Gigi Gigi explains the law, language, money, and morality of Bitcoin in this powerful essay. BTC vs ESG by Peter Thiel at Bitcoin 2022 Paypal Co-Founder Peter Thiel delivers the keynote speech at last week’s Bitcoin 2022 conference. Highlights from Swan's Content Bitcoins! Get Yer Bitcoins! Get’em While You Can by Tomer Strolight Tomer explains the window of opportunity to buy Bitcoin that exists today for all investors. The Importance of Actually Owning Bitcoin Cory Klippsten on Hedgeye Webcast Cory joins Hedgeye Analyst Rob Simone to discuss why actually owning spot Bitcoin is better than any other alternatives to gain exposure to the asset. Behind the Scenes at Swan Our team feels more connected after spending the week together in Miami. With the Swan team spread out across four continents, these in-person interactions are invaluable. Save the date: Swan is hosting the Pacific Bitcoin Conference in Los Angeles on September 29th and 30th, 2022 Thanks to everyone who attended Swan’s “Bright Orange Future” event in Miami Swan announced a new integration with Specter, a desktop wallet. Now Specter users can buy Bitcoin directly through the wallet powered by Swan Our gifting service enables all Swan Customers to give Bitcoin to friends and family. (gifting is a great way to onboard new people). We’re seeing continued massive growth in our concierge service, Swan Private Client Services. If you’re a high-net-worth individual or want to acquire Bitcoin through a business entity, let’s connect. Swan in the media: Brandon Quittem went on Robert Breedlove’s Show, Swan CEO Cory Klippsten made another appearance on Coindesk.tv, was quoted in this Business Insider article, and went on the CryptoWendyO show to discuss Bitcoin vs CBDCs. Swan is hiring: for a Mobile Bitcoin Wallet Developer (Flutter), Mobile Designer, Client Sales Rep, Social media Manager, and more! Check BitcoinerJobs.com if you’re interested. Swan Force: Join Swan Force to get paid to recruit Bitcoiners. When you recruit someone to Swan, you’ll earn 25% of all Swan fees for 1 year (paid in BTC). Our top Swan Force members have already earned over one full BTC! The world is waking up to Bitcoin Can you feel it? Sign up for Swan today and we’ll start you off with a free $10 in Bitcoin. Thanks, Swan Team
Call me crazy, but I saw something interesting in the action of the Nasdaq and BTC on Friday. As the equity markets continued to sell off, BTC stopped following. Yes, its been dropping as well for the past 2 sessions, but look at this divergence in the afternoon as outlined by the blue lines. QQQ keeps dropping while BTC found strength. On a similar note, InvestAnswers had a comment about how lots of people are calling for gold to hit $5000, and then a subsequent poll about which asset class will hit their respective milestone first. Here is the results of the poll after voting. Clearly there is a bias towards BTC among people who follow him, but for gold to go 2.5x for such a huge market would I believe make BTC going up significantly higher. Its almost a non-question from my perspective. The amount of manipulation with BTC only goes so far. Sure you can have "paper" BTC via futures contracts, just like there is lots of "paper" gold for sale, but I believe the limits of manipulation are capped, especially when people want to take their BTC off exchanges. I do believe the day will come when BTC disassociates itself from following tech sector, and it may be happening slowly already. Furthermore, people expect a crash in BTC if the tech sector crashes, very much like March 2020, and although this is a huge possibility, the fact that everyone expects this means that its perhaps not as likely this time around.
That poll is just a measure of what is popular on Twitter, but I would say BTC would be the first. The QQQ correlation to BTC is a consequence of institutions getting involved in it and in the same vein that is the reason if there is another dislocation like March 2020 or September 2008 BTC & the rest will all go down since they will be sold in order of liquidity assuming they don't want to exit their equity positions. Gold really thrives in a negative real rate environment or Government instability.
But what if people figure out that running into USD is just throwing money away at 10% per year? Maybe more will start running into BTC and the rest will be history. I of course agree that gold can also do well, but paper gold might not seem as attractive this time, and all that paper gold can even artificially suppress the price, and maybe people won't be able to purchase physical gold of silver. It might set up a perfect storm for going into self custody of BTC. You simply cannot control BTC nearly as much as you can gold. As a far out conspiracy theory, the gold market can even be paused... look at what happened to nickel trading at the LME. But with BTC, there are probably hundreds of reputable exchanges that will still be functioning.
If the SHTF then throwing money away at 10% per year might seem like the least worst option. Unless we get hyperinflation, USD will remain a safe haven in times of severe market stress. During a crash, give me a choice between USD and everything else (including gold) and I'd always choose USD. I don't believe the old adage "cash is king" has changed.