I did not sell any bitcoins, decided to ride out the pull back Got an email update today, the bearish signals per onchain has run its course. Not saying we're going to shoot up from here, but at least not calling for a correction any longer Whales are accumulating again setting up for another supply shock as we've seen from 30k to 50k
https://maxbit.cc/billionaire-john-...rthless-bubble-will-eventually-crash-to-zero/ “I would say that cryptocurrencies are a bubble. Regardless of where they’re trading, today will eventually prove to be worthless. Once the exuberance wears off, or liquidity dries up, they will go to zero. I wouldn’t recommend anyone invest in cryptocurrencies,”
In the spirit of this thread, just received the latest newsletter from my paid subscription service The expectation is that we will go to $60k per btc in the next 2 weeks, but let's say before end of September On-chain analytics fwiw
I love a prediction that is quantifiable both in time and price! But at the same time, I think the selling prediction of a few weeks ago was rather a dud. If Willy saw selling by the whales, and yet no significant selling occurred, does this mean that on-chain analytics isn't that powerful of a predictive force anymore?
That was last week (Tuesday) when the emergency email was sent, price went down over $2K from $49.3K to high $46K The newsletter does not know how deep the correction as we don't know if there will be buyers stepping in, which happened, hence the newsletter update a few days later said no longer bearish and I posted here Since it's old, I think it's ok to share Top level summary for 24th August 2021 (current price $49.3k): Short term: New data that came in today shows long term investors are in the process of a medium sized sell off. Our demand and supply model is in a bearish divergence, suggesting price now needs to correct to lower levels to find balance. Price action expectation: I’m expecting a bearish reversal this week to initiate. The scale of the pull-back is not yet known, and will depend if more sellers come in. I await further data.
ICYMI, when charts were saying we will hit $20k or lower pointed out here by several ET posters and also on Crypto Twitter by many crypto traders, on-chain analytics were talking about supply-shock as whales were accumulating in the $30K area I bought 3 btc's and posted here $29-$30K and another 2 btc's at $46K There were at least $2B worth of BTC's that were bought in the $30K area If the buyers are publicly-traded companies, they will be have to announce those buys as it gets closer to earnings season (September) Looking forward to fireworks in the next few weeks
I'm just looking at this visually. If we consider the call as you state, and mark it on this chart, I will be extremely generous and call it the move outlined via the red line at the red arrow. (there was a large counter move where it moved up before dropping a little lower, but I will just call it one move) Next, if I copy this exact same move to other areas on the chart where we have a roughly similar move, we can see that there really wasn't anything that special about this move in question. I of course understand that its a forecast and nobody knows what will happen and if buyers will step in. But if the idea is that on-chain analysis is predictive, it should more often than not lead to moves that are more pronounced. For me trading futures, its like analyzing levels with resting orders. Sometimes its clear that the price of ES for example will trade very close to a thick level and either pause, or move away, or in some way show that people are reacting to this. Other times, its like the level just isn't there. There is no extra volume, there is no counter move, etc. The liquidity is just swallowed up and it keeps on going. And on just a rough estimate, its practically 50/50 as to that thick level providing a tradeable idea. So if the on-chain analysis says selling is coming, but the move is so small that we don't want to sell, then its not valuable information. If every sell signal produced a 5k or great drop lets say, then fine, we could sell all out coins and start to accumulate lower. I'm not trying to argue with you and I appreciate your posts, but I'm just trying to make sense of the worth of this info.
I was watching like a hawk and saw as well how 30k was providing very good support. But I was too scared to buy more thinking that we will go down to 20k and I missed the whole move.
You have very good points. On-chain analytics is not very useful to traders. It may even be counter-productive as it could make a trader lose money The reason for this is that it's not an instant market indicator. During the time when we traded sideways for many weeks, William Clemente's newsletter (which is free by the way, link below) has been calling for a supply-shock-induced move to the upside, but it was extremely frustrating watching btc chop sideways The value of on-chain analytics is for long-term investors. I do not want to ride down an 85%+ slow-grinding crash 3-year bear market in bitcoin/cryptos Yes, we had a 60% peak-to-trough correction (bear market in a bull market cycle) and I did sell when newsletter said we had a mountain of bitcoins being moved to exchanges and some big wallets were selling https://www.blockwareintelligence.com/archive?sort=top
77K Bitcoin seems to be a shoo-in for the New year...here we come 2022, They say time does not count on money, but money without interest in time never ages...