(Futures Magazine) Bitcoin - The trade that many investors use for Bitcoin exposure is the Grayscale Investment Trust (GBTC). The trust has consistently traded at a significant premium to Net Asset Value. The average premium was 19% over the last year. The bitcoin strategy for many family offices and hedge funds was to subscribe to the private placement at Net Asset Value with a 6-month lockup or "can’t sell" clause. The investors then sell the shares 6 months later in the secondary market, collecting the premium. Last week, GBTC went from a premium to a 10% discount to NAV. There's no redemption mechanism currently to exchange the shares for physical bitcoin, meaning the shares could trade at a discount to NAV for a while. It’s all about supply and demand.
Bitcoin had big selloff along with the stock market last week. The correlation with high-flyer tech stocks was even stronger The past couple of days, bitcoin has shown strength and resilience in spite of weakness in tech stocks Today is a very good example of this. Tech stocks down, gold down, 10yr Treasury yield up.... and bitcoin up! Still have to keep an eye on this, but this is a very good sign for bitcoin acting as a proper uncorrelated investment asset
That is true in an absolute sense but the BRR futures (CMECRYTPO) went from 53000 to 50200 during the sell off. That is roughly 2X of the NASDAQ drop (5.5% vs. 2.8%). My observation is that it highly correlated to the high growth stocks on the NASDAQ. I trade mainly the crypto miners and they seem to have 50% correlation to Bitcoin price and 50% correlation to the NASDAQ. That makes sense, it is the same with gold mining stocks.
Not familiar with the CME:CRYPTO, but I was watching spot bitcoin (along with my crypto holdings which pretty much follow btc) and btc only went negative briefly and mostly positive for the past 8 hours
Honest question, how much conviction do you have on your belief? Are you putting a trade (i.e. short position) that will make money?
I am long, for a long time. Not selling and not taking any short positions. I am not trading in-out as well. My statement is just a very short term prediction of price action. Short term I am bearish on the crypto market, but very bullish long term (3-5 years).
Sorry, thought maybe you were trying to trade bitcoin. Also same as you, not selling (last bitcoin sale was 2 weeks ago but was a planned bitcoin sale) Since last week, bitcoin has made some violent moves to the downside, followed by slow recovery above $50K. Maxinger has mentioned the record daily bitcoin ranges My very inexperienced trading opinion is that lots of traders are getting hurt, longs and shorts, probably more longs than shorts On a broader scale, I believe there are some big money bottom fishers that are providing a nice support $43K-$45K There's several tweets mentioning the big amounts of bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges. Imho, if a trader is on a losing end of the whipsaws, their bitcoin stash are being scooped up and not coming back for sale TL;DR, I think we have strong support at $48K, if broken, maybe next support is $46K, I very highly doubt we'll hit $43K again, since much of the supplies are now in cold storage