Yeah I agree with that 100%. It could def punch up above 17 and settle in there and I'd expect the ranges/bands to slowly, angrily, crawl in that direction if it does. It's hard for me personally to buy at these levels - but that's just me and some of it has to do with my age. At 53 I'm not looking at BTC the same way as others. For me it's more of a five to ten year thingy, not a twenty or thirty year thingy. In the short-term I'll stay mildly bearish on it, I think there is an argument for some reversal, but I'm definitely bullish over the long-long-term and any decent pullback is just another opportunity to potentially buy at a discount.
Throwing my two bits in here again... If we hold here, I think it shoots to +21. If traders starting getting nervous and let it slip below 17.1 , I think we cycle back below 14. The contrarian in me thinks we're gonna get a correction.
Hey John, I know you like BTC, but I have an honest question. Its had a decent ride the last several weeks, it went from about 16.3 to 18.3 in about a week. Nice. But what I'm missing is, the folks on Reddit and Twitter are like cultists.... I mean they are going on and on and on. I can appreciate their glee, but I guess what I'm missing is.... what the hell's the difference between owning this vs owning 1000 shares of an $16 stock that went to $18? And again I'm not belittling these people, but its like BFD ya know. A stock like Corsair ($CRSR) went from $28 to $38 this week. And you can bet there'll be a new stock just like it next week. I honestly don't see what the big deal about BTC is. I know there's the whole "store of value" mantra, but hey the thing also went from 13K down to 3K. And trading in and out of stocks aside, a long term investor can do the same thing with a quality growth stock they know and follow. Like ISRG, or CRM, the FANGS, even TSLA. I mean it seems like these people are waiting for some kind of Armageddonish collapse of the worlds banks. Ok, well maybe... but in the meantime... Like I said, I hope it goes to million for ya'll, I just don't see the logic behind this cultist glee. And again, not you; I'm just talking about the folks on other social media. Seems kinda overdone from where I sit. That's just me though.
You make a great point, vanzandt. When looking at the price of bitcoin, one can strip off 3 digits and then you have an $18 priced asset. In some ways, this is similar to how GBTC is marketed to the retail investors, it's very affordable, anyone can buy a few hundred shares or even thousands. For at least a couple of years, I've posted in here that I own very little amount of bitcoin (less than 1 btc) until a few months ago, I started buying btc in the $11K range, average cost and for a time after that, btc was doing nothing and I was even under water on the position. I even posted in here griping that all my other short term investments in DeFi were flying and btc position was doing crap. But I never sold the btc position.... You won't see a post that I sold the btc position. Why is that? Because the btc position had a single purpose, a "stable" core position in my crypto portfolio. This leads me to the mentality of the reddit and twitter btc crowds, imo. Bitcoin btc is a golden ticket that anyone in the world can purchase. It's an open ticket. If you are able to own say 1 whole btc and hold through the ups and downs, what would btc at $100K each mean to you? What would btc at $1M mean to you? and inversely, what would btc at $0 mean to you? 1 whole btc is just arbitrary, maybe more, maybe even less, 0.1 btc at $100K might be life-changing to someone, somewhere in the world. This is why Bitcoin is very exciting to the reddit and twitter crowd. It's a permission-less way to participate in an investment that has a very big potential and unlike Uber or Air BNB or WeWork (disaster) where the risk and much of the rewards went to the VC's and the investment bankers, in bitcoin we're getting ahead of all Wall Street players. One last thing on the price, many of the institutional investors and hedge funds and investment funds, could not really buy bitcoin at a lower price as it's too small of a market cap. That's a good thing for small players and if this proves to be true, $18K per btc is still a good price and when btc hits $50K, we might get an accelerated price increase, which is counter intuitive [edit: saw a twitter post video of this kid, younger than 15yo, who got $100 worth of bitcoin in the candies bowl during Halloween, and this kid was so excited yelling at his friends he just got bitcoin!!! woo hoo!!! First the kid knew about bitcoin and also his friends, and Wow, a kid can own an investment asset just like Paul Tudor Jones or a big company like MSTR or SQ? Think about that.
Here is a chart of monthly ATR on Bitcoin. It confirms the typical 'from contraction comes expansion' activity. What I noticed is the the times spent in tight consolidation are getting shorter. Better accumulation robots entering the Bitcoin arena?