Apparently, Mt Gox trustee has been selling hundreds of millions $ worth of bitcoin which was why bitcoin price seemed to go down hard every time it was on an uptrend...
In my opinion, bitcoin will hit $50,000 per coin before the end of 2018. [Oops, need to put context on the attachment by a famous author. I will be holding no less than the equivalent of 20 bitcoins in my cryptocurrencies portfolio from now until 2019]
The technicals explained everything. I didn't know about the large sale, yet I was able to predict correctly the moves both ways.
So apparently the Japanese court guy has been selling since September and got an average price of 10K, and that is a pretty good price compared to the range where BTC has been in that period. Could have put up a huge sell wall at 15K, but we don't know the details, maybe he wasn't allowed to sell all at once, had to be stretched out most likely...
I have to correct my previous post. The sleuths at Reddit followed the BTC transfers from the Japanese government wallet to the exchange. These are the dates put on the price chart: https://i.redd.it/f7ukb9j2rek01.png Looks like the sales had some effects although I think the meltdown would have happened anyway, and I am sure other whales were also busy selling. Now the kids are crying about the BTC dump, although if 40K coins had such a supposedly big effect, what if they sell the remaining 160K? Not to mention the Bulgarians with their stack.
This was based on price bouncing from the lower BB (9.5K on the daily chart) usually up to the SMA, what was around 10.5K. That is where price turns around if the market is weak. Well, the bounce only went up to 10.1K and bitcoin is weak because we are down to 8.6K and I don't see any reason why it should stop before reaching the previous low of 6K. Again, the interesting thing is that all cryptos act together, there is no safe place, showing that nobody values them according to their features, they are just investment ponies.... Edit: Looks like Ethereum Classic stayed in the green.
Thoughts on mt. Gox sell off? 400 million since November with possibly 1.8 billion remaining (depending on whether victims get paid in appreciated pricing or not,). Current market cap is 148 billion, much more in December, so not entirely sure if this a big enough dent for the market sell off (0.2% of today's market cap).
Check the link in post #1547. The first batch wasn't sold until late December, close to the top. The second around 16K. Even the 3rd batch was around 14K, and that was already 18K coins combined, almost half of the needed amount. Those were pretty damn good timing. Dumping the last batch (18K coins) together didn't seem to be too wise, but price was falling, and most everybody couldn't see where it would stop. He was supposedly using a Japanese exchange, kind of makes sense from a legal POV. Personally I can't believe he was the only whale effecting the price: 1. My predictions from that time frame were incredibly accurate, although I didn't know a whale was dumping. Technicals worked just fine. 2. Anybody with a little brain could see the writing on the wall, that a 20K price can not be sustained. So other whales must have been selling too. If they are a crypto fan they could always buy back in later on for much cheaper. All in all, BTC behaved like any high flying on thin air stock, and in a thin market whales rule. There is no law against crypto dumping, but of course long term holders are crying.