You've done as well as anyone I can cite directly with confidence. I like how you have protected profits from Part One while keeping a stake on the table for Part Two. I can't help but admire someone who has locked in security for their family in a way that looks sane and sober. Fuckin-A.
4 pages and no mention of Tether or USDC? That's the real fraud in the markets. Price was prioritized via Fed like printing and the agents all over selling BTC as an inflation hedge. It's like gaslighting on an international scale but one that is allowed in some ways from the top for literal criminals and convicted Ponzi schemers running the show. It's sure a redistribution of wealth. The source and destination are not advertised to keep the scam going longer.
John selling?? Is this capitulation? FOMO overcome by FOLM (Fear of losing more) Is trading vs investing starting to make more sense?
just some food for thought: i think we need to separate bitcoin from shit-coins from smart-chains that have true disruptive potential. i find it hard to believe this was a tulip-bulbs-style bubble. but if it was, and i bought at the tippy-top, i'll have to change my handle to "boughtatthetop", but i think it's already taken. statistically, what are the odds of crypto simply ending now and society moving on from blockchain buzz. imho, i think that true blockchain believers have to start buying this dip and DCAing in.
You're framing it incorrectly I've been through 2 crypto bear market cycles In a bear market, you sell to cash so you can buy when the discounts on cryptos are 80% or more but do not expect that is the bottom Cryptos can stay at -80% price for a long time and even go up and then down more The key is to plan for long term in cryptos. It's not going away, and only would come back 10x bigger You don't understand? that's ok few understand... for context, btc went down 85% from the high in Jan/2014 to Jan/2015, but this was not the bottom nor the end of the bear market which was another 1 year and half in 2016 but the price difference was only less than $25 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...itcoin-believers-still-comfy-about-it.288985/ I know I'm talking way over your head and you're not going to understand any of these since you were not there PS: the stock market is crashing like hell, but you guys can ignore that and only focus here
John; I'm just going back to a conversation we had a while back where you argued that trading bitcoin was unreasonable. I won't take the effort to go back and look it up but I'm sure you remember the thread. You wanted to make sure I had skin in the game. Your buy and hold against my trading. I haven't bought any yet because the price is still trending down. As for the stock market; you're right it is correcting. As a trader I'm moving to cash. The really astute traders are taking shorts. I'm not saying bitcoin isn't going to the moon eventually, I'm saying that it hasn't started in that direction. Nothing wrong with taking some off the table and waiting for a better price. It's just not buy and HODL. I'm suggesting that you might have changed your attitude towards trading.
You don't need to go back, I know and remember the discussion Your frame of reference is incorrect as I said on my previous post First of all, I have bitcoin and cryptos, you do not have any. We are not the same As my post mentioned, I will always hodl 10 btc To have 0 btc or no cryptos is irresponsible from a risk management, imho What if China invades Taiwan causing a massive disruption in the global trades and as a result Canada defaults on its debts and Bitcoin goes up to over $1M Canadian dollar each overnight? FOLM is your term that implies I'm afraid of losing more fiat value. This is incorrect. I already have enough fiat in my portfolio I value cryptos more than fiat. We are not the same What I would like is to be able to pick up cryptos including btc at a huge discount during a bear market. I'm interested in more cryptos not more fiat I believe in cryptos as a forever savings account. Fiat is needed for spending We are not the same
I couldn't agree more. And that's a good thing. It's what makes a market. I'm not arguing fiat vs crypto. I'm suggesting trading one for the other. When crypto is high trade it for fiat. When the price of crypto drops trade your fiat for crypto. For the most part I can't spend crypto right now. I have to convert it to fiat. If a merchant accepts crypto I'm assuming it gets converted to fiat value. That is you can't buy a $100,000 dollar car for 2.5 bitcoin you would have to convert it to dollars worth of bitcoin for the dealer to accept it. The price in bitcoin would depend on the exchange rate at the time. Now for the tough question. A month ago (around 47k) you wouldn't trade your bitcoin for fiat. Now you are willing to part with some for 37K. What changed?
You make valid points, but I think he is speaking more in a practical just trading way. I mean BTC is almost working on a 50% haircut from it's highs. He's saying if you sold some BTC there, now you can buy it back here and almost double your position. Also seems you did very well for yourself and you were smart, so you deserve to be where you're at. At the same time what about an 18-20 year old just getting started in life? For most of them (like 99.9%) they can't practically hold a consistent 10 BTC or have a reasonable way to ascertain that much of it yet. In other words of course if someone has ample resources, it's smart to diversify. If you have for example 100 units of something, but only need 10 units to sustain your lifestyle. than of course putting 10 units in BTC, 5 units in gold, 5 units in silver, 5 in cash, 5 in other assets and etc etc is a great hedge to make sure you can maintain your lifestyle, virtually regardless outside of a mad max scenario. From reading his post he was speaking more of a practical view of just interchanging them to gain profits. Like trading it.
This is my 3rd reply to you but we're still not meeting eye to eye, lo. We are not the same and that's a good thing as you said Notice your post is talking about fiat and its value? You referenced a car, good. Next year, if inflation is 7%, that car would be more expensive in fiat Listen, I get the value of fiat and spending on goods and services. I'm not against fiat. I have enough fiat in my portfolio Your last sentence again tries to lead the argument for the 3rd time to fiat value which is the most important for you Savings of value and wealth in bitcoin and cryptos. Remember our convo from a couple of months ago What changed? nothing changed. I and many cryptos people are waiting for a bear market to snap up some good deals Don't reference the fiat price A month ago, I was more sure it's still a bull market in cryptos. Now I'm considering that it may be more likely we are in a bear market in cryptos But I have not decided that it is a bear market I'm looking at many aspects. I'm a fundamentals investor With the Fed tightening and rate hikes, less money for all the markets including stock market and cryptos It's not rocket science it can cause a bear market in stock market and cryptos But here's my thread from the beginning of the year discussing bear market so you can't say I changed overnight https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/