https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2019/04/16/bitcoin-is-the-new-gold/#21cb38b5239a (photo credit: Getty) GETTY I always write about this basic idea when it comes to any investing: which way is the market going, up or down? If you know, you are in great shape; if you don’t, you should not be playing at all. This is the question on bitcoin. All last year I was saying, “It’s going down, hopefully to about $2,500.” It hit the low $3,000s. Now bitcoin is going up and I will be saying “It’s going up.” I think it will hit $6,000 soon and go on to $10,000. At $10,000 I will look to recalibrate. For now the crypto winter is over. Here is the chart: The bitcoin chart: the crypto winter is over CREDIT: ADVFN This is a simple chart with some guidelines and there is a clear pathway upwards. There is apparently a lot of China interest in crypto right now, with tether selling at a premium. This makes sense if the market considers a yuan dollar depreciation on the cards. Tether has been shown to be resilient, even if it is still a controversial coin. It remains a good place to stash capital from short-term moves, be that from bitcoin volatility or ‘fiat’ privations. Money flowing into stablecoins is going to lift bitcoin because fundamentally money flowing into crypto is what sustains and raises prices. Bitcoin and altcoins have to have positive money flow because they are "mined" and have their monetary bases expanded with every block. For bitcoin $9 million of new money must enter every day to match new supply. It's not that straight forward because if miners hodl on to some or all of their bitcoin, less money needs to enter on a daily basis to prop up the price. In the end, however, supply and demand creates the price and for new supply to be matched at current levels, more than $3.3 billion dollars has to flow into bitcoin to make it go up. That might seem a lot but it is not when you see the scale of modern markets. Gold production is $140 billion, so that’s the amount of fiat that most come into the system to keep its price around $1,300 an ounce. Both assets have about the same emission as a percentage; the difference being the market cap of gold is about $5 trillion and bitcoin is $0.09 trillion. Gold is the global asset to hedge against risk and investors are incredibly interested in it. It is a mainstream asset dwarfing equities and other assets in the mind of the man in the street as an "investment." Google searches for gold and bitcoin in the U.S. CREDIT: GOOGLE When you drill down into mindshare, when you look at interest in the financial news, you can see what looks like bitcoin eating into the interest in gold, at least in the U.S. If you look at the global picture this trend can’t be seen as clearly and when you appreciate global interest in gold is driven by countries with low tech penetration it suggests that as time passes, bitcoin and crypto will increasingly share the flight capital/risk asset crown with gold. Google searches for gold and bitcoin worldwide CREDIT: GOOGLE Even if bitcoin takes 20% of that market, bitcoin will be through its previous $20,000 high. That is without bitcoin continuing to be used for transactions or any other emergent use case or situation. Bitcoin winter is over, the price is going up, the only question is how high. For now $6,000 is an easy target and $10,000 a coin this year is not such a hard target. I’m still accumulating. Forbes Special Offer: Be among the first to get important crypto and blockchain news and information with Forbes Crypto Confidential. It's free, sign up now.
It can go up, but not until all shenanigans (USDT and etc) are out of the Crypto market, it will be a "artificial" fake price.
I've owned a lot of BTC in the past. That being stated, the daily volume is under $10B. It's a joke. There is no depth to the mkt.
I think you bought 300 bitcoins a while back. Did you sell them all or have you kept any? Bitcoin (cryptocurrencies) are still growing and the price will reflect that. Market cap for bitcoin is less than $100B so 10% of that in daily trading volume is reasonable, and it's 24/7/365, not like other markets out there closed for holidays. When Bitcoin market cap is $1T, daily trading volume might just hit $100B
some similarities : gold has dropped from 1920 (in 2011) to 1280. It may not recover in our lifetime. BTC has dropped from 16800 ( in Jan 2018) to 5220. It may not recover. people might steal gold. People might steal BTC. some differences : Gold supply is limited. You need to put resources to mine it. cryptocurrency supply is unlimited or infinite. You can generate infinite amount of cryptocurrency as it is virtual. _______________________
I don't like to answer these questions for a variety of reasons. 1) I get more hate and 2) nobody would believe that I sold 110 at $18,800 average.
Sorry about that, didn't mean to put you on the spot. Thanks for answering, though. Very happy for you that you sold near the highs.
I had a shitload locked up at Coinbase and was forced to move smallish blocks, day after day. My premise was, once it broke 17K, that it would get close but not penetrate the 20K figure.
Yea, Coinbase had a lot of issues during those times as they were not prepared for the volume of trading that was happening at that time. Other exchanges closed down account registrations and people were buying exchange accounts. I suck at trading but I did spend bitcoins when it first hit $5K in 2017, thankfully it was going up fast so not that much at that level, a few before it hit $10K, and much of the spending above $10K but don't remember spending any above $17K valuation, though. And to reiterate how bad I am at trading, still holding most of the portfolio in bitcoin-equivalence, but I do believe in it long term so no cashout plans, except if a certain value is hit, I might take out a certain amount as "fuck you, money".
I just had a "what the fuck moment", lol. I had no idea who you were until I looked at your profile. I thought you left ET a long time ago... I was reading your touch, no-touch, binary options and other journals and options-modeling discussions with Maverick74 a long time ago, even though they went way over my head! Reason I have arb on the nickname, lol Good to know you're still active on ET. Thanks for all the knowledge sharing you posted many years ago. I'm on my 2nd Taleb book, for some reason you remind me of him, and hope you don't get insulted if you're not a Taleb fan at all.