Today the European Parliamant voted/approved the following proposal: According to the proposal, you will have to verify every transaction of more than 1,000 euros with crypto coins. This means that you must clearly indicate who is the sender and who is the recipient of a transaction. In the past this was not mandatory. In addition, you will no longer be allowed to manage your private portfolio yourself. You must have this done by a recognized body. (something like a bankaccount???) The European Council will still have to approve this proposal. Russia wants to ban crypto's too...
From 12/8/2012 till 02/01/2013 the close price was between $12 and $20. In that period there were about 1 million coins extra. So your statement only makes sense for 1/21 of all bitcoins, or less than 5%. And from these 5% not a single coin was bought by an ET member. So you are arguing about an irrelevant number of coins.
We are now a few weeks later. LINE1: prices and predictions for 2018 and the same day 10 years later. BTC was in 2018 around 8500$. Watch the average compounded rate of return that should be generate DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY to reach the target. LINE2: What was the result after the first 4 years, so 40% of the period already past: BTC is today around 38,898$. Due to the underperformance of the first 4 years, the compounded rate of return for the remaining period should increase around 32.38% to still reach the target. LINE3: What did in REALITY happen? What was the real return for the first 4 years? The compounded rates of return are all 47% lower than needed for the prediction to become reality. So in the first 4 years they were dramatically behind and had difficulties to even get close to 50% of the needed compounded rates of return. The actual returns should be 2.5 times the actual return for the remaining years to reach the target. To reach the target, the actual price of BTC should be $231,902. So the value is $193,004 behind, or BTC reached only 16.77% of the projected price at this moment. I do agree that things can change quickly, but that has already be said for many years now and the actual situation is what it is. A complete failure for the $10 MM prediction. So in just a few weeks and despite the help of Russians and Ukrainians that are "massively" buying BTC. Or the endless list of financial institutions that are entering the crypto market, prices go down, returns go down.
I think Bitcoin is much too volatile for anyone to be able to tell where it would be in ten years. For example, only a few months ago, its trading volumes were through the roofs, and now they're falling like a rock according to the newest data. Who knows how it will be like in a year, let alone in ten years.
In best case you can trade it like a stock or a future. Only take position if your charts are clear and out when the trend reverses. Surely nothing to hold for the long term. Because there is the risk. And if your trading system is good, you will take more money than the hodlers, in the long run. And never catch a real drawdown because you will be out.
Paper-hands will do that. When something is going up, they all come out of the wood-work. When the euphoria dies down, they run back under the rock they were previously hiding under. They remind me of another group of people in the equities-markets. These animals are called dividend-chasers. It's a losing strategy, but they think their system is outsmarting all the BUFFETT type investors. If a soon-to-be bankrupt company has a high dividend (this is logical if you think about it), they swoop in and think they are geniuses. And when the dividend is finally cut, they sell off at huge losses but think they are being super-smart, and dash into the next equity that has that 'super high dividend'. Rinse & Repeat. No matter how folly this is, from their own perspective they think if they just find that ONE super-duper stock that keeps paying unsustainable dividends, they can retire early just like those Motley Fool articles talk about.
We are now again a month later. LINE1: prices and predictions for 2018 and the same day 10 years later. BTC was in 2018 around 8,500$. Watch the average compounded rate of return that should be generate DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY to reach the target. LINE2: What was the result after the first 4 years, so 40% of the period already past: BTC is today around 29.420,73$ (was 38,898.07$ last month). Due to the underperformance of the first 4 years, the compounded rate of return for the remaining period should increase around 42% (was 33% last month) to still reach the target. LINE3: What did in REALITY happen? What was the real return for the first 4 years? The compounded rates of return are all 58% (was 47% last month) lower than needed for the prediction to become reality. So in the first 4 years they were dramatically behind and had difficulties to even get close to 40% (was 50 % last month) of the needed compounded rates of return. The actual returns should be 2.5 times the actual return for the remaining years to reach the target. Situation april 18: To reach the target, the actual price of BTC should be $246,145. So the value is $216,723 behind, or BTC reached only 11.95% of the projected price at this moment. Situation may 21: The performance of BTC is a huge problem. The opportunity cost is skyrocketting and still increasing. Each day the situation gets worse as the backlog of the real returns versus the needed returns are growing exponentially. The evolution also shows clearly that only the PRICE matters. And that price does not follow the flow of optimistic news that is posted everywhere to pump up the "value" of BTC. It reminds me of Comical Ali in Bagdad.