This type of conspiracy theory is why conspiracy theories get a bad name. Adults look at Bitcoin and say "hmm, that's actually a good idea, how can we do the same?" That's really the extent of how much Fed has thought of Bitcoin.
In a rush? Fed releases long-awaited study on a digital dollar, but doesn’t take a position yet on creating one https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/20/fed...esnt-take-a-position-yet-on-creating-one.html
Selling is still going on now since november. We almost hit 38K. Sooner or later the "correction" will result in a wipe out. It is just a matter of time. Each spike upwards is used to sell. Confidence is getting lost, or maybe reality is getting in more and more. The daily compounded rate of return drops already for years and continues the way down. It is interesting to read the journal of @Baron about his investment in BTC. It looks like it that, every "opportunity" he saw to buy, in hindsight was just a fake buy signal. Every single trade he made ends up as loser till now. I consider @Baron as a person who has an "above average" intelligence and knowledge about trading, but if even he has problems to find good entries, how difficult will it then be for the "joe average" to find the good entry and exit levels.
Ever thought that the real reason might be that more and more people realize that crypto's are just scams? You are wishfull thinking that it is because of the FED. Reality is maybe total different. Future will tell us what was the real reason.
I'm fine with your criticism of what's happened so far but the downside risk is the main reason why I've been layering in instead of going all-in back in October. That's why I clarified in the first post of my Journal that it would be a crypto accumulation journal more than a crypto trading journal with frequent entries and exits. I also think we should put your chart above into a broader perspective:
I took the chart from the moment I had a short signal on the weekly. I told at that time (half november) it was too early to buy. I still think it is too early. If you trade on the weekly chart you can limit your number of ins and outs to the minimum, while still getting all major ups and avoiding all major downs. And, more important, avoid the risk of being long in a total crash of BTC. That's the real downside risk to me. You would have to get in or out just once every few months with a far superior return and a lower risk. In this specific situation your average price would have been 30- 40% lower/better. The CFTC wants in any ddisclosure document about trading/investing this sentence:PAST PERFORMANCEISNOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS I think you cannot use past behavior for future. The higher the price the more difficult to go still higher. The huge returns in BTC happened when the value was low. You see clearly that the compounded return is already going down for several years. That confirms that huge return will not come back soon, if they ever come back. People like to buy crypto's just like penny stoicks, because the smallest rise is percentage wise big. Now the price needs a rise of a few thousand $ for a 10% rise. When BTC was at $100 it needed only $10 for that. Watch how the compounded return behaved over the last 12 years. Blue is compounded return since 2010. Return is dropping since 2011 and never recovers. Red is 1 year compounded return. The 1year compounded return has a lot of difficulties to get over the LT compounded return. The 1 year compounded return is, 77.13% of the total period, lower than the LT compounded return. So even getting above a sinking LT compounded return is almost impossible. That proofs that BTC has a lot of problem to outperform any other investment in future.
Thank you. I was wondering if you would consider starting your own journal trading whatever instrument you want so we can see how your weekly chart trading technique plays out in real-time?
I cannot, because to show how and why, I should show my trading plan. And that I will never do. I daytrade futures and wish to enjoy life the rest of the time. If I would have to start a journal, I would need to spent lots of time on that. And as I daytrade already a few decades I have not the energy and/or I am not driven enough to do that like it should be done. I just post now when I want and when I have time. I just want to give my vision on crypto's just like any other ET member. And 99% of them never open a journal either. I know several people who traded or invested in BTC without a happy ending. So I sometimes post about crypto's because there are too many people who create unrealistic outcomes for their own hidden agenda. I use OHLC which are real, objective and verifiable numbers and put them in a chart. I show the real compounded rate of return which represents the performance, or lack of it.
If you have a method that works reliably, I'm sure there would be many people who would love to get a glimpse into how you trade profitably. But if you don't want to start a journal, that's certainly your prerogative. I do have a question for you though. Given the incredible rise in the crypto industry that we've seen over the last several years, not just from a price appreciation standpoint, but also from outside investments into crypto projects of all types from VCs and other funds, is there any event that could take place in the future that would cause you to say, "Ok, I was clearly wrong about Crypto being a scam." For example, we've seen worldwide adoption of Bitcoin take place, both in terms of major companies mining it to individuals, companies, cities, and countries buying and holding it. We've seen all kinds of new applications from decentralized finance to NFT marketplaces come out of nowhere just within the past year. And even with the recent dip in crypto prices these last few months, we're still looking at a market that has essentially gone from zero to 1.7 Trillion in market cap just within last several years. Is there any signal whatsoever that would prompt you to ever say in the future that you were wrong about Crypto?