My 100,50 Unirenko chart on Dec BTC futures says there is a very very good chance it will happen. Note the dates at the bottom, and the relevant highs and lows for each day. That looks like a bottoming pattern to me.
5-day chart now shows BTC running out of momentum. I now have downgraded the Yes to a No. BTC will continue downward.
"Past success does not guarantee future performance." You'll see this warning tacked onto everything from annuities to virtual currency funds. By law, asset management firms must remind you that all investments carry some risk, even the "safe" or more successful ones. Past results can be helpful when analyzing an investment, but it's important to look at a long time horizon. When analyzing past returns, it's best to generally ignore returns from the past few years and focus on 10-year returns—or longer. About the chart: · BLUE LINE: compounded rate of return starting 01/01/2011 till 01/01/2021, and all ending December 2021. · RED LINE: compounded rate of return starting 01/01/2011 till December 2021. Hodler scenario. From the start already we see a decline in the performance of BTC. Year after year we see the downwards evolution. In 11 years time, the compounded rate of return on a daily basis went down by 61.84%. When BTC was very cheap the smallest change in price gave spectacular returns. From 0.0001 to 0.0002 equals +100%. To double today we need a rise of 50K. The more the value of BTC went up, the more problematic for BTC as people tend to buy low priced crypto’s as they generate % wise more profit. So the long term return declines as less people are interested , so less buying. There are more and more crypto’s available and most of them are at much lower price levels, so they attract buyers who will not buy BTC anymore. Remember the smalls coins that went up thousands %. They hope that these coins will do what BTC did in his early stage. Only 10% of the coins (addresses were created before 1/1/2015) were bought before 1/1/2015. So the generated profit for the majority of buyers (90% of all coins) is much lower. Their compounded rate of return is not 0.2997% but only 0.1980%. So 34% less. BTC was then at $314.25 instead of $0.3. So 1000 times higher. Speaking about the theoretical returns (IF invested in 2011…billionaire) makes no sense as you never had that return. Only really achieved returns are valid. 70% of all coins were created after 1/1/2018. Do for the majority, all these wonderful and spectacular profits from before 2018, never ended in their pockets. So these billionaire examples have no value for the 70% group.
If you have interest in credibility, then you might want to check your last statement; "70% of all coins were created after 1/1/2018." https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/Bitcoin_Supply
Something got messed up. I will answer later, no time now. In the meantime you can read this, speaking about credibility of wiki (so also your credibility): https://paperpile.com/g/wikipedia-credible-source/ "Although Wikipedia is a good place to start your research, it is not a credible source that you should use to cite from." On wiki anybody can post anything. Wiki does not check anything.