And this rule of yourz, that BTC can't be lower in price within any 3 year period must hold because it held so in the past?....
Nah, dude, OP is one of the fair Bitcoin critics and my post was not a reply to him, hence I did not quote him and I'll have to deal with the no-coiner shitposts for a while, this crypto winter is far from over. I'll be ok, dude
Just want to check I don't violate forum rules, are we only allowed to comment on cryptos if we trade them?
You can comment. No problem. I was simply pointing out that the most vocal critics of cryptos in this thread seem to have made no effort at all to actually short any of it in accordance with their convictions, which is baffling to me.
So the big picture you are communicating to all of us is: It's a shit show so lets all get dressed in suits and jump right into the mud. No, thank you. First lesson ever taught to me by my former mentor when I started out trading professionally was to never add to losers, ever. So far, the usefulness of cryptos have exactly been ZERO. So, staying away makes absolute logical sense to any rational person. Not just for now to sit out the crash debacle but for good. We happily let you guys take the fall...perhaps you win the lottery at the usual odds.
That is actually a fair comment. I stay away because I do not even consider it a tradable asset, just a complete and utter unbeliever. Why not short? Because there are nutty morons out there who have no problem to pump up some of those coins and bomb the hell out of shorts until the next bad news hits another coin. Not tradable volatility imo.
Not exactly permissionless since now active databases of transactions since inception are analyzed and CFTC maintains a list of blacklisted addresses. Tons of examples of people getting busted by BTC tracking and also exchanges consuming customers BTC because it came from suspicious addresses etc. In fact last year several mining companies bent their knee to the CFTC and have agreed to blacklist the transactions themselves. So even if someone wants to pay a hefty fee to transfer out or into blacklisted address, you'd have to have >45% Hash rate of the entire BTC network. Not practical since long ago when ASICs were celebrated by those who would grow to become maxis and con artists. This list is also growing. BTC has led the way to CBDCs as maxis have also continued to fight AGAINST privacy ("crypto") because they loved the fact that the govt allows this Tether fueled open ponzi to suck the cash out of people making it easier for them with whatever their agendas are these days. BTC is full of such narratives and it seems there smaller level con jobs happened in forums, reddit (where r/bitcoin notoriously censors info and is the most censored sub in all of reddit), twitter, you name it. Also all of this censorship resistance nonsense failed in the Truck situation in Canada. They swiftly banned the addresses and also traced the donations coming in/out everything. Journalists have been busted in El Salvador and the govt tracks their official wallets too ala CBDC. To me this is low Alex Gladstein level propaganda being pushed still here in the forums.
Absolutely would this be a bad call. Look, you seem to look at this in terms of absolute numbers. But that is not how long-term profitable records are built. Holding onto a 90% drawdown is from a relative risk perspective insane, dumb, and an absolutely poor call. No matter it goes up a million percent afterwards. Why? Because the overwhelming empirical evidence points to the probability of an asset losing 90% and then gaining 1000% to approach zero.
The main issue you can not short this shit and be sure to collect. Yes we have CME futures, but have you seen the margins???