"Well if the asset dropped 90% and then gained 1000% a couple of years later, would it still be a bad call?" I can't even read that statement while keeping a straight face. Cringe galore for a trader, or investor, to do. That's definitely considered an absolutely failed trade. A person who does that is a delusional, hopeful, praying, gambler. No one should have to weather that kind of storm to see sunshine. This is about trading, not macro economics debating and theory and academia and politics.
Did you forget to login under a different account, @deaddog ? There are not many morons who would make a rule of the obvious
I'll go out on a limb here and call a long bounce very likely today w/equity futs slightly green. As of now 5amET btc is at 22.5. Not a reco but I'd look to buy if it bounces over 24 with sl 23 and 29 target. Is there any easy way I can buy btc in my fidelity account, or other easy way? All I see is https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/overview Or buy MARA RIOT COIN I wanted to short btc from mid 30s via inverse etf but couldn't find one. I'd cover short if btc got over 24.
You confuse survaillance with permission. If you do a bank transfer, you can click a button in your online banking account but the final decision for initiating the transfer is still done by a third party. If it doesn't like the transfer, it won't go through. On a permissionless system you can still initiate the transaction whether you get prosecuted for the transaction or not is another question. @M.W. trustless means you don't have to trust a third party to do the transaction for you. If you don't understand the implications behind that, I can't help you. In addition, we're not talking about buy and hold here and you're absolutely right in not adding to losers. Crypto is a high octane market and you absolutely need to know how to manage risk. Right now you'll add to a winner if you are either a OG crypto hodler from 2013 because you are still up by a massive amount OR you're a good trader who knows how to construct a portfolio and you gained massively from the crash. If you top ticked the bull market and you're praying to god for a turnaround, you're fked, just like you're fked if you top ticked tech (ARKK), equities in general or gold. Someone has to pay the bills and right now it's the FOMO boys from 2021 who went all in on shitcoins, ETH and BTC at the beginning of the year. The reason why monkeys like @JackMorgan are so ridiculous is the fact that they don't understand that crypto is the best market to trade and to invest in BECAUSE it is a growth market with massive swings. It's the most discussed, most impactful, most dynamic market of the decade and it will stay that way for a long time. You WANT risk, you WANT low liquidity, you WANT people getting either rich or bust, because opposed to equities where you can don't have any advantage over the competition, this market is extremely inefficient and the risk premia are extremely high. ES opening 2% lower with a carry of below 1% on the futures and an option risk premium of 5% over realized...is that what you want to trade? I preferr 20% carry and 30% risk premium in a market that can trade +/-20% in an hour. Nobody bets on the ES going to zero or to a milion, but people do in crypto. Last year you could have sold a 25 delta ETH call with 60% premium over realized for a 3 month option. That's where you can cash in.
I don't trust Binance and the margin required on IBKR is too big for me to do it. So I short via ET posts (that should be a thing.)
Thing is, there is a need for a market that is free of boundaries which nobody controls. You can see that in the Eurodollar market. It's a market for interest rates that are not controlled by the FED nor any other government entity. The caveat, however, is the fact that only banks can access it. There is no way for John Doe to trade interbank spot rates for dollars outside the US. You can trade futures to bet on rate shifts, but not spot which would open lending/borrowing for you. Does Joe Public need a USD spot market that isn't controlled by the FED? No, absolutely not, because his daily business is operated by a network of service providers that tells him what he's allowed to do in exchange for a seamless experience in payment, credit and trade. But guess what? There are millions of people out there who don't have access to that network and there are also large players who want to operate outside of it, because it's slow, cumbersome and expensive for anything that isn't already baked into the system. Ever tried to wire 1m to Interactive Brokers for margin reasons and access the funds to trade on that same day? It takes a week for the transfer to be settled and cleared because risk, compliance and AML has to check it first. Because of that, business is slow and not very capital efficient, which leads to a system of credit lines...and credit lines are subject to counterparty risk, which is what almost ended the financial system in 2008. In crypto you can transfer any amount in less than an hour and you can access it right away. You can transfer it wherever you want to without anyone blocking the transaction. It is the only free market out there and people take advantage of it. And like it or not, the majority of business is done in a gray area. That's how Marc Rich established todays oil market which was oligopolized by the seven sisters before he traded with Cuba, Tunisia, Iran and probably every country sanctioned by the US. Was it illegal? Yes. Did it matter? No! There is some really dirty business out there that is outside the public view. Bribing, payments for weapons that nobody must know, financing a coup to gain political influence. Usually the government has to use a complicated network of trusts, offshore entities and shady banks to cover up the flow of money. Right now, they send crypto...and on top of it they are able to follow the money to the last satoshi because everything is on chain. Thinking about Bitcoin as a means to pay for your meal at Taco Bell is completely wrong. Joe Public will never need it for money transfer. But crypto allows for things that weren't possible before. The public discussion about price moves, regulation and it's viability as a payment medium and store of value...none of that really matters. It isn't a medium of freedom from the government, it isn't an inflation hedge, it's not the new payment network to replace cash, it's not a world currency and it's definitely not here to save everyone. It's a permissionless, censorship free and trustless way to transfer money and each transaction can be tracked forever on a public database. Let that sink in and think about what you can do with it that is not possible within the traditional financial system. And then tell me why it will go to zero
That's a good post. I'll let it sink in before I reply. Let's be clear though: I never said it will go to zero. In fact, I never made any predictions about where BTC will go at all. There's some in this thread who seems to think that's a possibility, but I don't think I belong in that camp. As for the issues you point out with today's financial system, i.e., your issues related to speed and settlement. Can they not be solved without Bitcoin? If I wire funds to my broker from Norway to the US they have quite often been posted to my account within the same day. Never tried to wire a million to IB, but I hope to have that problem on day. The financial system in the US does seem antiquated in many ways. In Norway the check belongs in the museum and I'm sure there's quite a few people here who don't even know what a check is.
As some people in this thread are worried about the excess spending of governments and money printing. Why would Bitcoin be priced any differently if shit really hits the fan? Haven't these last few months shown precisely that Bitcoin isn't a hedge against that? As I don't personally see any utility for me by holding Bitcoin my only motivation for buying was that it could possibly act as a store of value and yes, a hedge against inflation and an asset that would continue appreciating in value due to the finite supply. Or simply put: an investment. Yet, each and every time there's turmoil in the financial markets Bitcoin is what drops hardest and the dollar tends to appreciate. So, for me personally I don't see why I would want to buy it. If I were the richest man in Norway I'd buy for $500 million, too. But I'm not, so I'll have to be more selective.
Well, if that's the case then just buy Bitcoin-bonds instead of Bitcoin-coins. Fun fact: In the 80s, the bonds-market had superior returns over equities (high interest rates), yet by far the majority of investors kept aping into equities right up until the crash of 87' So that being said, even if we are into a new paradigm of high interest rates to stay, that doesn't for sure mean stock market will reach a fair equilibrium with bonds. Another fun fact: As Roy Niederhoffer likes to point out, the funny thing about bonds, is people tend to use them in portfolios to count as a hedge, instead of using puts. He feels as though there is some sort of flaw in that as there isn't much a premium for that sort of insurance (when there should be).