Of course you may ask but It wasn't really that pretty. I wasn't looking for 82.40, or even 82.46 (yesterday's low) I wouldn't go for, since I would not expect a full retrace of that. As we talked earlier, I was thinking that this was prolly the last of the down-ness getting done, so In my mind I know I am looking for a bit less that maybe 400 a car... In general, when I am looking for 400 a contract, I have my mouse on the close button about the time I see 300 a car. In this case, that shoulder at 82.61 on the 15 was what I had in mind (visually) as I launched a strategy that runs down the market, staying 2 ticks behind the last print, MIT. I use this when I don't really have a valid target or if the target gets overrun and I didn't have a resting order there. As you know, the market moves so fast you need a machine to execute a close like that. It can also reverse at that point, but as you said, too near the close. I told you it wasn't pretty.... The close button closes and cancels, should I feel I need it. Sort of a take what you can get thing...
That's an interesting strategy. What I do is I have a profit target in mind, usually a break of the previous S/R level if it's a with-trend trade. So in this case the previous S level back was 82.40. It's not a hard target, it's a mental target, so I can take more if the market offers. When price comes in to that price level I look for a break of the level and if it breaks I trail a stop at the previous bar's high or if it breaks with decent follow through, I trail to lock in my initial target and try to get more. In this case, price broke with momentum and so I would've had my stop @ 82.40 when price pivoted off the 82.29 level.
Can you post a chart please? I am sorry but as you know I was trading TF as well and I had my eyes on both charts, but I did not see price hit that level. We are talking about the bar that closed at 11:30 Pacific time, right?
Whenever you say to yourself "it cannot do this" or whatever you should take that as a sign to reboot your thinking. We all do it; damn human nature! As has been said, "Thinking while daytrading is hazardous to your wealth." Not sure who said it, sorry, but it surely is true. Anyway. I wanted to say that Brooks is really right on the market's tendency to have two-legged pullbacks. Worth watching for. Has some of the Elliot wave ick on it as a concept, but the money's there. Just put the stop at the failure.
The bar that closed at 11:30 pacific time closed @ 82.69, but CL continues to trade after pit close, so had I been in that trade I would've left my target (previous support) in play until it was reached or a reversal signal appeared. Chart is attached.
Yeah, I've noticed myself falling into the trap of thinking for the market - trying to keep that to a minimum.
Today I tried to do 2 new things at once: Test out a new trade entry strategy and play with NinjaTrader's chart trading. I placed many trades today, and at one point was down over 100 ticks, but ended up the day +43 ticks. This was entirely due to dumb luck when at the last trade of the day, I tried to take a 26 tick profit on a short and ended up selling another contract right before the big drop. In real life, I would have quit trading after the 3rd stop out on Trade #4. I omitted the other 20 trades I made because I was just rolling around in barbed wire and goofing. The 7 trades here are ones I was trying on, and I threw in the last short just for fun. I didn't see any trades in the morning, and with lots of news coming, I just watched. Trade #1 Against my better judgement (trading close to news), I saw the 05:40 and 05:45 bars form a 2 bar reversal, and I went long at the close of the second bar. -11 ticks. Trade #2 I saw price topping out and when the 05:55 bar came down and then back up, I drew the trend line and put OCO stop sell orders in at 83.05 and 82.85. When price dropped on 06:00 bar, I was filled and my auto trail moved me to BE+1 after 8 ticks where I was taken out right before the drop. This all happened very fast. I was in and out within a second or two. Maybe I should either drop the auto trail or put my stop sell a little higher. I put it 1 tick below the lows of the two previous bars, but maybe I should have done it at the end of the body. +1 tick. When the 06:05 bar retraced up from the bottom, I was ready to put a stop sell under the close, but either NT froze, or CL stopped trading for awhile. There's a gap between 06:05 and 06:10. Trade #3 I was waiting for the pullback to the EMA and when the 06:20 bar touched it and came back, I put a stop sell under the close. I was filled on the next bar, got a couple of ticks, then was stopped out. -11 ticks. Trade #4 I drew the trend line after that stop out and saw the 06:35 bar touch it nicely. Expecting the trend to continue, I went long on the close of the bar and was stopped out. -11 ticks. Trade #5 Price came down on 2 strong bars and closed well below the EMA. I waited for the open of the next bar, and when it started back up to the EMA, I placed a stop sell under the 06:45 bar. The 06:50 bar came back down and filled my order, then stopped me out on the high of the next bar. -11 ticks. I made about 15 trades during the next 30 minutes, just experimenting. Almost all of them were losers. Around 07:25 it looked like the barbed wire was over, and I waited for the pullback to the EMA. Trade #6 Went short on the 07:40 bar and moved my stop up after getting some ticks to the good. Price didn't follow through. +2 ticks. Trade #7 The 08:35 and 08:40 bars made a failed attempt to go higher, and after the weak 08:45 bar I placed a stop sell under that and was filled on the next bar. The 09:00 bar stopped right at the LOD. I had my stop set on the top of the 09:00 bar and watched price come almost all the way back up, then retreat. At the close of the bar I moved what I thought was my stop to the close, but it wasn't a stop. It was some default strategy that got loaded when I place my trade. Before I knew it, I was short another contract and then the bottom fell out. Total accident. I should have only gotten 26 ticks, but ended up riding it all the way down. If only life was really like that! Still need to work on some things.
Not a bad idea, except the previous shooting star that retraced 25 ticks off the high was an ominous red flag for the longs. I was watching for a short setup. Then again, I'm always watching for a short setup. I once moved my stop to b/e after 8 ticks and was taken out of a very similar trade that moved so fast without me I had no idea how to get a piece of it back. Now I only move my stop early if there's a level that needs to break and it fails. Otherwise my stop stays until price moves at least 10 ticks (if counter-trend) or 15+ ticks (if with-trend). Frank, I believe this was by far one of the best trade setups in the entire galaxy and simply by putting on this trade at 82.85, you've demonstrated that rare spark of pure trading genius that is so elusive to mere mortals. (I'm not in any way attempting to insinuate that I, too, was short 82.85 in the general time window of 05:55:32 PST or anything like that.) Maybe not the galaxy, but this was at least one of the best trade setups in the solar system. Sometimes CL just thumbs its nose at genius. Close of that bar was a second push up after a lower high and a lower low (2-leg pullback). Think short. Or think long only if price breaks the high of that closed bar OR after a pullback that doesn't break down the 82.46 pivot low. Failed breakout @ 82.01 would likely keep a bid under things for at least a little while, which is probably why there wasn't much follow through. But it looked good IMHO, nothing ventured, nothing gained. Yes, the 9:00 bar stopped at the LOD and I quickly took my 20 ticks profit when the breakout never happened (I was 10 ticks late to the short party on that one). But I shorted again @ 82.08 when price couldn't even muster up enough strength to touch the previous bar's high before coming back near the LOD, and I covered @ 81.48 based on the technically precise "damn, that was a big move" exit signal. The best part is I'd accidentally placed a 10 in my quantity field just a few minutes earlier! At least one of those last two sentences was real life. Though I have no idea what scary stuff you did in between these trades, I think you're seeing the price action pretty clear. Have a great weekend!
It's all you. NoDoji. Your help has lit up the room for me. I still have miles to go, but I see light. I wanted to name a child after you, but none of my sons would consent to the name change.
Ungrateful mother-truckers! Disinherit them! j/k Yes, Nodoji is not only one of the best traders in the boards, but also the kindest soul. (No children here to rename, sorry)