I thought highly enough of this setup to have traded it myself and here's why I went long there (88.08 to be exact) yesterday: Overnight and into the NYMEX open CL was in a deep down trend with a significant measured move out of the NYMEX open. The pullback from the measured move was followed by a weak breakout, meaning the trend was looking tired. Price broke up through previous 87.95 resistance, and closed above the 20-bar MA (10:15am-10:40am ET). Price pulled back shallow to 87.93, broke out weakly through previous R, back to 87.93 again, then left a small inside bar with a slightly higher low (11:20am ET bar). Internal double bottom support was established @ 87.93, which is a "previous resistance becomes support" zone, a good sign of a possible trend reversal. A break through the high of the small inside bar (88.07) takes price back up through the flat 20 MA and should at least move toward the high of the range (88.25). Buying this break allows a tight stop, and a quick exit if price fizzles without reaching 88.25. The trade was a 1-tick scratch for me, too, but the low risk stop vs. the reward of a potential run back up to at least 88.60 made this trade well worth a try. The failure to reach the top of the range and the break back down through the 20 MA was a solid with-trend short signal.
It says a lot that u didn't make any trades today. It was whippy, great job. I trade the ES and i finished a little in the green because that last push up, I timed it perfect.
Great explanation. If u look at 6:30 on franks charts your gona see a lot of volume on the 5 min bar. What that says to me is thats where the professional started to sell hard, in order for the market to change trend it needs to get through that level with a decent amount of volume. Any time there's high volume, most of the time the market will pullback then continue in the direction of the trend or change trend. JMO. There's no right or wrong, it sounds like you knew exactly what you were doin.
The one setup CL offered me today was a pullback entry long on the 09:40 bar, but I didn't take that because price had just bounced off of the overnight high of 86.99. In hindsight, I should have taken this trade for 2 reasons: Price formed a double bottom at 86.63, and this was 3 ticks higher than the 86.60 resistance-turned-support level. On the 6E side, I didn't really like the looks of the 60 min chart. The trend was up, but the bars were all sideways doji's. The last 60 min bar was an outside bar and my short entry was at the bottom of that bar. The current 60 min bar formed a LL and LH. Trade #1 Got a giant red bar at 05:10 and then a long-legged doji that closed near the bottom of the range. The 05:20 bar was a strong green candle, but the next bar was a small inside red candle. Didn't like the 60 min chart, but this looked like a good short. Entered sell stop 1 tick under and was taken out by the next outside bar. Moved my stop to 1 tick above the signal bar at entry, but got 1 tick slip. -7 ticks. Trade #2 The bar that stopped me out rejected the EMA, and the next bar was a strong red candle. I waited for the next bar before entering a limit order to catch the retrace. Got a perfect fill and had 10 MFE. I was tempted to lock in the 7 ticks previously lost, but instead trailed my stop and was taken out on the next bar. +1 tick. The range was pretty crappy and I mostly just watched. Switched to sim to play. Sim Trade #3 Had 4 big whippy bars that closed at or above 1.3671. The last 2 bars formed LH's. My plan was to wait for the breakout below that level, then wait some more for the retrace that would probably come, and THEN be the 2nd mouse at the cheese. Price broke, then came back up. Put sell stop in at 1.3671 and was filled. Was tempted to scalp some monopoly money, but instead trailed my stop. +1 tick.
Busy all day yesterday, and this morning I got tired of my crappy old computer and monitor. Bought a new one 7 hours ago. Spent the next 4 hours getting it on my network, then discovered they forgot to put an antennae in the box. Back to Fry's. Downloaded NT and fired up the 64 bit version. After putting in my license info, I tried connecting, only to be told that NT 64 bit doesn't work with Zen-Fire. OK, fine. Tried opening NT 7 and it won't open. Going camping in a few hours for the weekend. Jeez.
6E was already raging when I turned on my platform. Debated on taking that first pullback at 05:15, but I hadn't done any pre-market prep, so I passed. 6E Trade #1 Took the next pullback opportunity at 1.3704 on the 06:35 bar. It was about this time that CL started to tank, if you can believe that, so I moved my stop to -4 ticks to tighten it up. Stopped out -4 ticks. After this trade, 6E moved sideways for awhile, then blasted a new high. The first pullback made a LH, then it fell below the EMA. The green candle at 08:05 closed above the EMA, but the next one was a red candle. 6E Trade #2 Waited to see how that 08:15 bar was going to behave. It went up weakly, then stalled. very wary of going short here, but price was stalling. Placed sell stop under previous candle and was filled for a quick scalp. +15 The morning trend in CL was down, so I was looking for short entries. CL Trade #1 After a big push down, got a pullback to the EMA. Entered sell stop under first red candle. Was concerned about the size of the 3 previous green bars, so monitored the trade closely. +1 tick. CL Trade #2 The first trade failed to follow through, then CL bounced off the EMA and headed down hard. Entered a limit order
My focus wasn't the best today. I turned my back just for a minute, only to see a setup pass me by. This happened several times. At other times today I noticed great setups after-the-fact. I didn't see them while they were printing. The amount of concentration necessary to pull this off is very high, and today wasn't a great day. If I did anything right today it was patience. I didn't revenge trade after I saw opportunities pass my by. CL was trending down after hitting last night's high, then bounced off a 60 min trend line and headed back up. It popped up past yesterday's high, then fell back to that trend line in a very nice channel. I'm sure people skilled at that kind of trading tore it up. CL Trade #1 After the 2nd bounce off that 60 min trend line, CL popped up over the EMA, then headed down. After the close below the EMA, I was looking for a short trade. After the 08:50 bar formed, I switched to the 1 min chart to time an entry because the 5 min bars were so big. Went short at 91.52 and was filled on the low of the next bar. Took 9 ticks of heat on my 8 ticks stop before CL dropped 20+ ticks. -8 ticks. CL Trade #2 I was waiting for a break of the 91.06 pivot low. When the 10:40 bar came close, switched to the 1 min chart to time an entry. Went short at 91.07 and price was price was jumping around so fast, I moved my stop to BE+2. I was going to try and scalp more, but there was a 2 tick spread on the DOM and it was very jumpy. +2 ticks. On the 6E, price was moving slow and steady. I had 3 limit orders that didn't get filled. 6E Trade #1 Price reached a high around 09:50, then went sideways/down for the next hour or so. Price dipped below the EMA on a nice shaved bottom red candle, then had a weak leg back up, culminating in a red doji. Went short expecting some profit taking selling. Held the trade a long time, but ended up +1 tick.