I couldn't have said it any better! Counter-trend my stop goes to b/e +1 rather quickly and I often place a hard target as well knowing that rabid trend-followers are just waiting to pounce on a trend line entry zone. I'll then gladly join the rabid trend-followers once the price action signals it. The most difficult part of price action trading is simply trusting how well it works.
Reading it is important! Complete retracements are for sure (just a matter of time)! And price always goes where price has been before. Once you are able to pick out zones; things seemed to drop into place (for me). However I still use BBands set at 20,2. and a MA at 20. It's just a confirmation signal, and it means nothing without supply/demand zones being close. Lately, I've been looking for addons for any charting software that will draw out the zones or recognize the bar patterns like Doji's, hammers, morning stars then draw line out from there. However I haven't found any. Has anyone else?
Easy Darling, I'd hate to see you tarnish your ET reputation over a skid in the oil futures. :eek: frank8800 I've been reading your journal as of late, and I must say, you've attracted the creme de la creme of the ET oil traders to your trading room . Breathe it all in my friend, you're having a rare opportunity. I too noticed you removed your indicators, that's OK, if the shoe fits. I was working on a system based on six indicators, nothing seemed to work. After weeks of time and months of data, I kept noticing a failed signal at a particular time of day. I ran down that rabbit hole and found a little ATM machine. Still to this day I can fade that one signal and catch a move. The rest of the system I never look at, I just open and close that chart at the same time most every day. You never know what you may find, with PA or TA. Keep up the good work
Yes, I found one of these, too, at a particular time of day, after ending up on the wrong side of it a few times. We're taught throughout life to stand up and fight for what we believe is right. In trading, however, when you come across something that's "not right", you're better off leaving your ideals behind and joining the "wrong" side that's kicking your butt
Got a little chopped up today. Overall I came out +4 ticks, but I didn't start making money until I switched to sim, so I lost where it counted. My goal for the day was to pay attention to higher time frame S/R lines, and not get caught making trades within a range. The 30 min chart was in a trading range between approx 84.60 and 84.15 when I got to work. The 06:40 bar broke support, then came back up. Support now became resistance. A short of the 06:50 bar close was the right trade, but I wanted to wait for more confirmation. Well, I waited too long. Trade #1 Short 83.69 but too bars too late. Got out BE+1. The market rose back up into that range, with the 07:35 bar hitting the top. The next bar had a failed breakout over the range. Trade #2 Shorted the close of the 07:40 bar, figuring this was the top of the previous range. I was looking for a trend back to the bottom, around 84.15 and only looking for 15 ticks on the trade. Shorted 84.60 with a tight stop. -4 ticks. Price made a triangle at the upper part of the range. Trade #3 The 08:05 bar broke down through the triangle, and the next bar kept going. Put in a sell limit at 84.51, figuring price would test the bottom of the triangle which would now be resistance. Dead wrong. -11 ticks. The 08:15 bar broke up through the range and I started watching the 1 min chart for an entry Trade #4 I waited too long on this - until the second 1 min bar closed, then went long at 84.80 which was about the worst time. This long trade sure looks dumb on a solid red candle. Managed the stop aggressively, but still came up short. -7 ticks. After 3 losses, I switched to sim. Trade #5 When price failed to continue up and the 08:20 bar trended down, I waited for a trace back to the higher level where I went short at 84.72. Ended up with 1 tick of slip for a BE exit. Trade #6 The 08:30 bar broke out of the range, switched to the 1 min chart and put a buy stop 1 tick above the 1st surge bar. Was filled and take up for a hard target. +25 ticks. Trade #7 Entered at the close of the 08:35 bar and was stopped out on retrace. -11 ticks. Trade #8 Entered a sell stop at the bottom of the 08:40 bar when it made LH and LL, thinking this might be a trend line break. Managed stop agressively. +6 ticks. Trade #9 Entered sell stop under doji. Was filled but price help support at 08:30 swing high. +4 ticks. Trade #10 After a few failures to break 85.38 I shorted 85.37 with a tight stop. After the 10:10 bar failed to do anything, I moved my stop to BE+1 and was taken out. If there's a lesson here, it's S/R lines are fuzzy areas, and don't be too ready to jump in until price starts to move.
Why are you switching between sim and live intraday? Why not only trade sim or only trade live on a given day. I can understand switching to sim if a daily max loss is reached, but other than that, it makes no sense to switch around, that's my 2 ticks.
I got 3 losing trades in a row, so I switched to sim. I would also switch to sim if I hit my daily loss.
After seeing your post. I went over and drew my supply/demand zones. I believe that you are not looking at the BIG picture. Price always retraces to where it has been. Basically what I look for is bouncing price out of the (green/demand zones) to the red zones. And vise versa for a short. I've attached my chart so it might help a little. Remember green=buy, red= sell. Zones only last for price to bounce into them or test them 3 times max. This is just my two cents Hope it helps. FYI, I pulled out $750 per contract on 2 trades with the emini S&P 2 trades on 30yr bond market for $552.50 per contract, before 9am PST. I'll post my charts on those if you would like to see or think it might help.