Price was flat to up, but the most recent attempt to go higher failed. Trade #1 Thought I'd start the morning and new month off with a stupid trade. Went short at 82.05 even though there was all kinds of support at 81.94. Got what I deserved. -11 ticks. Price went nuts and I switched to the 1 minute chart for an entry. Saw entry after entry go by as price kept rising. After every minute I kept thinking it couldn't go any higher. Trade #2 Saw an entry at the 1 min chart and took it with shaking hands. +25 ticks. After the big run, I was waiting for a violent break of that trend line, but didn't get it. Instead price went sideways, making lower highs. Trade #3 After the 06:45 bar's failed attempt to go higher, placed a sell stop at 83.71 and was filled on the next bar. Took 10 ticks of heat on my 11 tick stop, but eventually came out OK. +25 ticks. The 08:05 bar doesn't meet the strict requirements for a hammer, but it looked like one, closed at the EMA, and the previous attempt to push lower failed. I was looking for a long trade. The next bar was a HH/LL and so was the next, even though it was a little bear spinner. Ready to go long. Trade #4 After that second bar closed below the pseudo-hammer's tail, I started becoming a believer and went short at 83.06. The bottom didn't drop out like I was looking for, and the T&S was twitching like crazy. I was worried about slippage, so I moved my stop to BE+3 and was stopped out with 1 tick of slip. +2 ticks. Switched to sim. Trade #5 Price ran up 40 ticks, then settled back to the EMA. Went long at 83.36 and when it failed to break out over 83.42, moved my stop to BE+1 where I was stopped out.
As I recall, my hands were a bit shaky when I placed a buy stop @ 83.67, believing it could go no higher, yet knowing full well it would Nice trading, BTW!
Thanks. My plan for now is to put profit targets on the back burner for after hours analysis. I'm going to focus on making clean entries. Oh, and the fear thing, too. Gotta work on that.
Today was a scalping day in CL, which I was not doing. I was going for 25 tick targets, which were few and far between. I only made 1 bad mistake today, which is good. I watched the 05:25 run with an eye to getting in on the 1 minute chart, but lacked the courage. Decided to wait for a setup I was comfortable with. Trade #1 I didn't take the short opportunity as price stalled after the run-up because it was too close to an up-trending EMA. When price closed down past the EMA, I waited for a confirming bar before entering my short at 83.72. I thought about a tighter stop, because my entry price was so aggressive. Meaning that if I get filled, the retrace is substantial, and maybe it's not a retrace but an up leg. Decided against that and was stopped out. -11 ticks. And so begins 3 hours of chop. Trade #2 Still an uptrend and was looking for a long entry. That long legged doji was ugly, but it did make HH and HL. Entered long at 83.79 at support. Was filled, got some good ticks, then out BE+1. Trade #3 Just like Trade #1. Out BE+1 After the hanging man closed above the EMA at 09:05 and the next bar made HH and HL, I was looking to go long. There were 2 limit orders that I placed that didn't get filled. Frustrating, but I'm reluctant to play the break out game. Trade #4 After the HOD was taken out, I got in at support on a nice fill, but didn't go anywhere. Another BE+1. I saw the triangle forming and was ready for a break out . Trade #5 Here's my bad mistake. I left my game plan behind and decided to play the break out game. I placed a buy stop 5 ticks over the high, figuring that was high enough to avoid a false break out. Price went up 6 ticks, filled me, then dropped. -11 ticks. So now I've made 5 trades. Great winning percentage, but I'm down 19 ticks. Switched to sim. Trade #6 After the shooting star and big bear bar, went short. Got 8 ticks, then BE+1 Trade #7 Starting to get mad now. I know this #$^$ wants to die. Short 84.11 and BE+1. Trade #8 Had a close under the EMA. Short at 81.01. Kept a tight stop because of the big wick on the prior bar. Same story. BE+1. Overall I'm happy with the day. I only wish I hadn't tried to catch that break out.
I had 18 b/e trades today, 15 of which showed me 10-17 ticks profit. If I was a 10-tick scalper it would've been one of my best days based on the sheer number of trades I took. I think I'm on to something here...
It is indeed. I went to the Dark Side's house to play one day and was filled with dangerous thoughts. All it might take to push me over the 10/10 edge is a "double dog dare, ya"
Got stopped out of my first 3 trades, and even though I didn't hit my daily stop limit, that's telling me to hit the showers. Today I tried to manage my stops better, rather than pick a fixed number. That saved me some bucks. I've been mulling over that idea for awhile, and I'm going to spend the next few days experimenting with that. I'll be in sim the rest of the week. Trade #1 Even though the market was trending up, this short trade fit my rules, so I took it. I figured 4 ticks would prove I was wrong, and I was. Saved myself 7 ticks. -4 ticks. Trade #2 The hammer of 05:40 closed below the EMA, but the next 3 bars all made HH and HL. Went long on the next bar and figured 5 ticks would prove me wrong. Wrong again. -5 ticks. Normally, an outside bar is a stop sign to me, and ignoring this one was costly. Trade #3 The 06:05 bar was an outside bar that tested the lows, but it finished strong near the top and with-trend. Went long and was stopped out. -11 ticks. At this point I switched to sim and made many, many trades testing different ideas, time frames, etc. Far too many to recap. Still have 7 hours before dinner. Back to replay.
Tried some tactics today that have been on my mind. Mostly I did OK. Too bad it wasn't real money. Trade #1 Got a great fill off a shorter time frame and it hit my hard target of 25 ticks. The next thing on the agenda is how to manage my exits. This trade and another trade later would have netted me 70 ticks with better trade management. Trade #2 After the big run, price started to drop down, making some bars with long wicks. The 06:15 - 06:25 bars failed to breach 86.48 and when the next bar closed below the real body of the previous bar, I went short at 86.34 but didn't get much follow through. +2 ticks. Trade #3 Big bearish engulfing pattern with another bar that closed under the EMA. Short at 86.21 but stopped out. -7 ticks. Trade #4 Looked like it was finally starting to drop. Shorted 86.06 and trailed my stop after the bar closed. +7 ticks. Trade #5 Really messed up my stop trail. Used a shorted time period to move it, but got anxious and was stopped out with BE+1. This was really dumb because my risk on the trade was only 6 ticks. Trade #6 This trade was very stupid. I saw the huge support at 86.19-ish, but shorted anyway. My rational was the last break of that support and the failure to move higher.
I took this trade, long @ 85.78 and it was technically one of the most perfect moves I've ever encountered for letting a winner run. There was virtually no backwash the whole way up, not even a 1-min bar breaking the low of a previous one. Did you notice that your hard target was 1 tick above the overnight high? That is a breakout long entry in and of itself. I'd recommend hard stops and mental targets, because you never know when a trade will turn out like this one.