Tried something a little different today. I modified my auto trailing stop to just go to +10 when I have 20 ticks, then the goal was to manage the stop bar by bar. I also changed my target from 25 ticks to 35 ticks, and monitored the 1 minute chart. On the 1 minute chart I adjusted the grid lines to 11 ticks, which was the stop I was using. I must say that being able to clearly see where my stop kicked in on that 1 minute chart was very helpful, as was using it to time an entry. Once again I'd like to thank Picaso and NoDoji for excellent advice and help. Premarket was up, so was looking to rejoin the trend. Got a sell signal at 04:50, but it was against the trend and too close to the EMA for me, so I just watched. Missed another sell signal after the close below the EMA. The big outside doji was a stop sign for me, and the next 4 bars were barbed wire. A double bottom formed at 06:10, then price started a climb up. Trade #1 After the close above the EMA, I used the 1 minute chart to time an entry. After 20 ticks, the auto trail kicked in and then I was stopped out. +10 ticks. Price got very whippy after that, and it wasn't until the lower highs started forming after 07:15 bar that I was looking to get back in. Trade #2 Still lots of overlapping bars, but except for the outside bear bar at 07:30, each bar formed a LL and LH. Again I used the 1 minute chart to time an entry. Got 20 ticks, then stopped out as the auto trail kicked in. +10 ticks. The next 3 bars were overlapping, and I decided to take the rest of the day off from trading. After looking at how the day progressed, and the fact that I was stopped out on 07:50 by 3 ticks right before a 200 tick move was kind of exciting. Obviously I need to work more on the mental part of this, because even if I held on to that short at 82.15, I'm sure I would have gotten out on the 08:00 bar retrace and not rode it all the way down, so it really wouldn't have mattered. I hope all you better traders out there raked it in!
Congrats, Frank, a positive day is always good. Try this: in the DOM > right click > Select Advanced options Then you'll see at the bottom of your DOM, below your "Stop strategy" a Selector for "Shadow" (strategy). This allows you to compare the ATM strategy (or manual handling) you're using vs. some other predetermined strategy (such as never touching your stop/target, moving to breakeven after x ticks, trailing once or trailing every x ticks, etc.). http://www.ninjatrader-support.com/HelpGuideV6/helpguide.html
frank, I really enjoy your journal as your chart is the same as mine (Ninjatrader) and it's CL, which I trade too. I'm interested in the way you trade because it sometimes will cause me to look at the chart differently. I read that you decided to stop trading early today. My suggestion would be to trade until at least 12pm EST. If you would have stuck around there were some really good signals in the last part of the trading morning. I've found that volume and/or the patterns and/or the signals tend to dry up sometime after 12pm EST so up until then it is usually fair game. Check out today's chart in my journal. Good Luck!
Frank, now that you see the benefit of not moving stops too quickly, consider getting rid of the auto-trail of 10 ticks and using S/R levels (or channel lines if you're trading a range or channel) to exit your trades. If it's a with-trend trade (2nd lower high or higher low), look to target the next support or resistance level in line to be tested. So when you shorted 82.15, you're with the new trend (down) based on a 2nd lower high and price now breaking the 20 EMA. Next support to be tested was 81.89. Target a break of that level (once price makes a lower high, price should make a lower low). Depending on the range of the bars, I generally target 10-20 ticks below that next support level plus 3-4 ticks just to ensure a fill. So in this case 81.72 or so would be my initial target. If price is really moving in hard to target, I'll move my target farther away and start trailing a stop at that point, but I don't trail 10 ticks early in the trade because when I was CL noob who kept doing that, Schizo told me to stop doing that
Thanks FD, normally I do try to trade a little longer, at least on Tuesday's and Thursday's. MWF I usually take off at 10:30 to go to the gym for a couple of hours. I haven't yet cleared my plate of all distractions, and occasionally I have some pesky client stuff to do. Since the morning was ho-hum for me, I decided to use the time to get a rock out of my shoe, so to speak. Tomorrow will probably be a short day as well, if I trade at all.
How did you get 81.89? I don't see it. I'll try to grow a pair tonight, and if I do any trading tomorrow, I'll (gulp) hold on for awhile longer.
Pivot low of the 10:00am ET bar is 81.89 on my chart (which doesn't mean it's accurate, but it usually is).
Made a couple of non-fatal mistakes today. Otherwise, a decent day. I decided to drop the auto trail stop, but kept the BE +1 move after 8 ticks. I changed my target back to 25 ticks. The overnight session was starting to give back some of its gains, so I wasn't sure which way things were going. The big outside bull bar at 04:50 started a run back up to the EMA with a close above the EMA. The recent trend was still down, so I wasn't too eager to go long at this point. The next 8 bars just chopped around the EMA as it started to flatten and turn up. Trade #1 After the big bull bar at 05:55, I looked at the 60 min chart, which was still up and had just come off its EMA. Then I looked at the 1 min chart for an entry and went long at 82.50. Resisted the urge to lock in 10 ticks (yay). +25 ticks. After the run, price moved in a 35 tick channel for over an hour. I saw the triangle forming and knew these things usually break to the flat side, but it was too close to the EMA for me. Turns out this did break to the flat side after all. In hindsight, I see the double top price made at the HOD, and the first bar of that triangle I drew was a lower high. That, along with the price topping out at 83.19 was a sell signal that I should have obeyed. There was another short signal at 07:55, after the failed attempt to recross the EMA. This was just above the open of the day, and for some reason I was ascribing mystic support properties to it, so I passed on another winning trade. I hunkered down to wait for a pullback to enter the trend. Trade #2 After the failed attempt to cross the EMA, followed by a trend bar, I entered an order near the pullback trend line and got a great fill. After 8 ticks, I went to BE+1 where I was taken out right before the move down. +1 tick. I wasn't paying enough attention to see the other, better opportunity to short that leg on the very next bar after I was stopped out. Overall I played on the conservative side. Right now I'm still more afraid of losing a trade than I am eager for a winner. Hopefully this frame of mind will relax over time. I remember reading somewhere that small, consistent wins builds confidence.