Birinyi rides the bull, sees S&P 500 soaring to 1,700

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Sep 15, 2009.

  1. S2007S


    Cant believe I missed this one, 1700 hahaha, wow this guy thinks highly of our economic growth going forward. Reminds me of DOW 36,000 predictions just a decade ago.

    Birinyi rides the bull, sees S&P 500 soaring to 1,700 by 2012
    Aug 24th 2009 at 1:00PM

    Filed under: Economy, People, Investing

    Double-dip recession? Lack of aggregate demand? Don't tell that to institutional investor Laszlo Birinyi. The founder of Birinyi Associates, a money management and research firm based in Westport, Connecticut, said Monday he's still very optimistic. "The markets are suggesting that the economy has turned the corner and is going to do a lot better than most people anticipate," Birinyi told Bloomberg News on Monday.

    In May, Birinyi predicted that the S&P 500 will soar to 1,700 in the next two to three years: a roughly 66 percent gain from its current level of about 1,030. The index has rallied about 15 percent since Birinyi's May forecast. The S&P 500 is up more than 52 percent from its 12-month low, recorded in March.

    During the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen about 13 percent, from about 8,450 to the current 9,550 range. Birinyi said the benchmark S&P index may rise another 5.9 percent, to 1,087, in the next three months "if it continues to progress at the rate it's progressing."

    Cites market breadth

    One technical indicator ray of light for the markets, Birinyi says, concerns market breadth. "We're seeing an awful lot of breadth in the market, which tells me people are being a lot less discriminating in the market, and they're buying everything," Birinyi told Bloomberg Television. Monday. "It's a sign that people who have missed the train are starting to jump in." He added that he bought General Electric (GE), and also likes Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), and healthcare and retail stocks.

    Birinyi, who traded on the renowned Salomon Brothers desk for more than a decade, is known for his breakthrough money-flow analysis. In October 2007, Birinyi warned that a recovery in banks would end, due to bad loans and lower revenue from underwriting: the prediction proved accurate, as the period marked the beginning of the global financial crisis.

    While some experts counter with bearish outlooks -- New York University economist Nouriel Roubini cautions that substantial risk remains of a double-dip global recession -- as financial-system stabilization funds are removed, the weight of recent fundamental data appears to support bulls like Birinyi. Recent U.S. factory and housing market data show signs of a bottom, or even improving conditions; Q2 earnings reports among S&P 500 companies were not the disaster that many had foreseen. Equally significantly, S&P 500 corporate earnings guidance for Q3 -- considered a clue regarding near-term corporate performance -- was largely in-line with Wall Street's expectations.

    This week's economic data also should gladden the hearts of the bulls. The best reports will likely occur on Wednesday, when the Commerce Department announces July durable goods orders, including appliances like washing machines, refrigerators, and ovens. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect a 2.5 percent increase.

    July new-home sales data will also be released on Wednesday, with economists surveyed expecting a two percent increase -- which would be the metric's fourth straight monthly increase -- amid additional signs of housing sector stabilization. Another potential positive for the markets: Tuesday's release of S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index data for June, which will continue to show a slowing of year-over-year home price declines -- historically, a sign that housing demand is picking up.

    Market Analysis: Should investors be bullish or bearish? Under the thesis that no one ever made a dime waiting for economic conditions to be 99 percent safe for stocks, the argument is tipped in favor of the bulls. You should position yourself in stocks (or add to positions) consistent with your risk tolerance and investment time horizon. But if you wait for U.S. GDP to flash positive in Q4 or in Q1 2010, most cyclical stocks will have been bid up by another 15 percent to 20 percent, and in some cases, much more than that.
  2. "In May, Birinyi predicted that the S&P 500 will soar to 1,700 in the next two to three years"

    its possible. i hope its not in a straight line.
  3. pitz


    Well look -- giving business owners a return on investment -- is the only way to get business owners to invest more, to grow their businesses, to grow capacity, to grow industry, and to grow employment.

    Growth cannot, and will not take place, if outsized returns are given to people who take no risks (ie: bond owners, savings account owners, mortgage borrowers), at the expense of business owners.

    Everyone else who has owned assets of any kind, whether it be a house, savings account, etc., has enjoyed glory in the past decade with outsized returns. Why isn't it time for stock owners to enjoy a higher standard of living? Haven't Americans been shorting the stock market like crazy in the past decade? Surely, such shorting isn't sustainable in the long run.
  4. Birinyi has a history of losing money because of going long during bear market rallies...

    His indicators are also of limited value. You can see it yourself by looking at his website..
  5. Yeah, you don't hear a peep out of him when the market is heading south. This is a surprising prediction.........I guess he sees nothing but blue sky.
  6. I subscribed to his service back in 1998 and his volume weighted "price" methodology was totally worthless. Even though his indicator viewed certain blue chip stocks as positive and under accumulation by institutions, they still went lower.
  7. I can believe that you missed it.
    In fact, you've missed A LOT during this rally, haven't you???

    You've been a HUGE BEAR for nearly 400 S&P handles, bragging about all of your purchases of various inverse ETF's betting on lower prices - - - and you've essentially been wiped out.

    Your "predictions" have been absolutely worthless. The majority of your 9000 posts on this website which include one cut and paste prediction after another have also been worthless.

    Time to go back to school, dude.
  8. S2007S


    That's another bubble in the making.

    The education bubble, people running back to school and paying tens of thousands of dollars to try something new because they think the other millions of people arent doing the same exact thing.

    They lose the job they had at 48 years old thinking they have to better themselves they go back go college to become a teacher or pharmacist only to realize when they get out that 3 million other people applied for the same job. Thats a scam in the making.
  9. So did Lazlo get long in March, or is he just getting in now and trying to talk the market higher?

    If Joe Granville turns bullish it's over.
  10. Lazlo needs to show "proof of performance"....

    Not just "freedom of speech" rights....

    At the moment is just media fodder....
    #10     Sep 15, 2009