Bird flu and grains....

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by bsparkyman, Feb 3, 2007.

  1. Another European bird flu outbreak could take some of the heat off the grains. Corn is already putting in lower lows and had a sharp break from the 405'6 level on Friday putting in a reversal bar on the last hour. Most ethanol companies have put the brakes on any new plant construction as construction costs have risen 40%. Could see a break back to 380 in my opinion.
  2. I took a look back at some old news, and it looks like bird flu has been around since as far back as 1998. That's almost 10 years. And funny thing is that the scientists then have been saying the same thing as scientists today - panic. That's not to say that it can't happen. But maybe the market could have priced in birdflu by now...
  3. Farmers are going to be planting for spring soon. With corn so high, do you think most will plant corn rather than beans? What is your take on long beans, short corn trade?
  4. Bottom line as much as they may want to plant corn you have to rotate your crops or sacrifice yield. If you really want to know what is going on call a few coops, county elevators, county extension offices or merchandisers and pretend to be a journalist doing a story about grain, ethanol etc, for the city folks. That's the great thing about the ags, there is no inside info outside of crop reports, just have to know where to get it. They will tell you what the local farmers are planting and at what price point they will do what. Sample a few growing regions and report back to us.

  5. Taking some off the table on this one and moving all stops.