ok, but just remember from 1776 to the present, USA economy has always been bad. Even when it seemed good if you really looked into the facts it was bad. Best conclusion is, "Economies are always bad." So now that we have that settled we don't really need to listen to economists, since the economy is always bad, but sometimes the market is good for trading.
You know, I really like that. It's so easy to be a pessimist. You see it here often. But there's some excesses that need to be corrected. I mean, China has been basically in a bull mode since at least 1992. I never thought I'd see the day when all their market manipulations would come home to roost.
Yes and another factor that pulled us out of 2008-09...I know the CB's will do whatever it takes, but that's a much easier task when the markets are in bull mode, it's monumentally more difficult if/when global markets are all in decline simultaneously...and again I'm not going to say it's 2008...
The reason I don't think it's 2008 is because it already happened and there doesn't seem to be the same level of risk out there. The high yield market is always vulnerable when the markets contract like this. Also some trader said that biotech was the new bubble, but I don't follow it. Any company that has high debt and iffy demand is vulnerable now.
I was thinking the same thing as I read the title...a manager of a bond fund preaching doom and gloom, definitely an agenda.
In 2008, we had the housing market - and everyone knew that it was a bubble. I would have been short that from about 2003 and probably would have been wiped out for being so early. I don't see anything that rivals 2008 today, not even close. China has a legitimate expansion happening and 6% growth is poo-poo'd when it was double that a few years back...it's still good but they are still learning how to manage monetary policy. For those of you that are old enough...remember how Japan was regarded in the late 80's? They were going to rule the world and we all needed to learn to speak Japanese. The air is still coming out of that balloon. It's sad when these CNBC heads appear on screen and you don't need to un-mute it to know exactly what they are saying.
this thread is the best reading ever ever.... for me anyway. thx everyone, each of you are so very right. an old chap along the andaman shore watching the sun rises from the gulf of siam and in front of his cave, and; watching it sets into andaman sea, in his backyard. just love this thread. much thx again everyone. the attachment is humbly included for your personal pleasures only which contains no commerical value in trading, implied or otherwise; with the full realization that many many here have been raking in much much more, but just choosing to remain incognito for various reasons.
has it been that long? No matter how bad everything else was going I could always count on my bond fund for 6% I only use to check it once a decade, then just like Bill, I started selling, way too early