Bill Fleckenstein Froth: The Stuff of Market Tops Anything that gives off a slightly bullish whiff is latched onto these days. am i the only one who thinks fleck is over rated as a guru. he always talks the same negitive tune. he never tells anyone what he is trading so we dont even know if he makes money. i respect a good shorter but it seems like fleck would be better off if he went with the market more often.
Agree with you, to think there was I time when I actually thought some of these twits knew what they were talking about. All they do is defend their positions, a cardinal sin in the mkts.
He will eventually be right, and then that is all you will hear about. Not the years of being wrong (and short).
there were 2 people who were pretty accurate in calling an october bottom (and not having called 27 other bottoms wrongly before): jeff cooper and fleckenstein. also, i've seen him say he doesn't know about (some) things. that scores points in my book.
Do you guys read his stuff? He stated in March that the market was ready for a rally and that he had no short positions for the first time in a long time. He's been bullish on gold and very bullish on silver for some time now and has been long NEM for several months. Also long NLY and recently AMD through calls, and he has mentioned other positions. He's been getting gradually more bearish as the market has rallied, but even now he isn't getting aggressive with the shorts as he isn't convinced that the market is done rallying. I think he's a good read, even if you don't share his views on the market. In many ways he's one of the few voices of reason out there and not just a cheerleader. And he quotes some interesting sources that you don't read about that often, like IT managers from fortune 500 companies and chip equipment salespeople, etc. Never hurts to know what those on the other side of your trade are thinking.
Actually, no I do not read his stuff. I assumed the original poster of the thread was correct in his criticism. It appears I may be wrong, and I will make an effort to look at his writing. Where can I find him?
He has a column here: http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p57427.asp It's not his latest stuff, but the price is right.
i will give him the bottom call and he did go long a few techs for a trade. from what i can tell he only stayed long a few weeks and has been negative on tech especially semis ever since. he has been bullish on silver for as long as i can remember (at least 10 years)so cant give him that. most bears are bullish on metals.
I think Fleck is over-rated*, too. That's not to say he isn't any good. He is. He usually makes an interesting point or two and he can be useful -- as can many other "gurus" -- for comparing your own perspective with. I don't really read him much anymore, maybe catch up once a week, but he's one of the few decent things left on RM (which isn't really saying a whole lot.) You're right though, he is very repetitive. And when things are going against him, it can look likes he's just making excuses. However, because he is very much focused on long term directions, his articles can be a sort of a, "Hey! Get a grip folks -- nothing's really changed!", as a reality check against the daily "developments" in the market. (* How early was he with the "Bubble" top? 4 years? I don't know, that just seems like WAY too much to miss out on.) btw -- he actually does often mention "trades" -- I don't think he views that way -- that he's made. A lot of the time these are in hindsight, or rather, he simply talks of a position he exited.
Check this thread I found, gaj. Best call I've seen made on ET (imagine if Romeo/JimRandid/RogerHerhey/etc had made THIS one!): October low call