Here we are 2.5 years into the housing crisis and not one top 10 builder has gone under. Simply amazing. What about the mass bk's we were going to see after xmas from retailers? Again few big bk's so far. I have to believe before this economic slide ends we'll see many bk's which means the end of this is still far away
I read a lot and this is the first time I have heard anyone mention this, very interesting point. We may be missing something here.
wouldn't want those CDSs to trigger, would we? these are the times of no big BKs and big money hand-outs for everyone.
The big BKs are still months and even years away. These companies have huge cash reserves. You also have to keep in mind that short term rates are still at historic lows. How long can CBs keep rates this low? I don't know. I don't think anyone really knows. I do know that these companies are burning through their cash reserves at a break-neck pace and once short-term rates spike and these companies cannot pay the interest on or refinance their debt they will file bk. I can see a triple top coming in equities with the US$ tanking into oblivion. Once we get that triple top equities will again turn down and the dollar will continue lower and that is when the real carnage begins. All this can be over with in 12-18 more months if the gov't just steps back and lets the economy squeeze out the bad debt and restructure.