All I am saying is that great effort is being taken to keep stock prices afloat. If the public really understood what was going on they would exit the market in mass. I am fully aware that prices don't go in a straight line. I look at this price action very much like after the first drop in stocks in 1-2 quarter 2000. I was living in Las Vegas at the time and I went to one of the trading forums where Cramer was talking. (This was November 2000) So I sat in and listened to what he had to say, He was saying buy all good quality tech stocks because prices were going higher in 2001. People sat with pen and paper and ate up every word he said. Well we all know what transpired throughout 2001 especially 1&2 quarter 2001. I think we are very much in this type of situation. This is why I said I would NOT short the mkt at this point. I believe we will have a better spot to re-establish short positions. Obviously everyone is aware of what's going on, feels fine with government and wall streets antics and that's great. I guess there is no further point to be made and we can leave it at that.
I think there is not much manipulation in the market. It is more about the huge hedge fund short positions betting against the dollar, long commodities, short us equities. As value buyers come in and prop up the market, short sellers feel the squeeze thereby distorting markets that would normally not rise such as $tran up with oil up. This is just the true greed from the short funds showing they were way over leveraged on the short side. I think there's enough fuel to head higher for a month or so from here.
I have been trading quite awhile, I have plenty of losses to show for my efforts. Admitting losses are not an issue for me. So again, don't apply your usual reflexology to something I may have said. If I say I don't own any stocks or real estate at the moment, it is because it's the fact.
I read references to 2000/2001 a lot recently. "This market feels like 2000". What about 1982? 1990? 1995? 1998? I wasn't trading at that time, but I look at historical charts a lot. Who are we to say this has to play out like post 2000 did?
'82 I was graduating high school. all the other years were sharp declines within an uptrend. The question today is if equities have put in a long term double top, and the begining of a long-term trend change. The point I was making was in regard to the extraordinary effort in price action to show that the market is doing well in the face of extremely detrimental circumstances in order to keep the public from exiting the market enmasse.
You make a very good point. One that i have made often, but it usually falls on deaf ears. In the present case i am not expecting the Fed to be able to keep the markets from falling some more in spite of further weakening of the dollar, but indeed, we will see these markets propped up to a considerable extent by the weak dollar. There will be a recession, there will be unemployment. There will be loans going bad. There will be excess real estate. There will be a slump in the building and associated industries. There will be a contraction in consumer spending. Wages will not keep up with inflation, which will be considerable. The market will be considerably propped up by a weak dollar.
Comments like these are why I never post on this site. Everything turns into a pissing match. Of course people post completely ridicules things at times and should be called on them. But I do not have a history of this type of behavior. I am not here to convince or boast of anything. I was pointing out an observation and to make known that I wasn't talking my position. Again, I don't care whether equities or anything goes up down or sideways. It is that these are extraordinary days in terms of government and and wall street antics.
What is so extraordinary about the government and wall street antics today? Has nothing like now never happened before? What about JPMorgan bailing out the entire market in the early 20th century? Would that be considered extraordinary and propping up the market? What about the financial crisis in 1998? I guess I'm just trying to understand what is so different now than what has happened many times in the past. And I'm not trying to start a pissing match with you. This is a message forum where discussions take place and questioning your opinion is just part of conversation.