One of the dumbest threads of all time. U.S. stocks are not even close to being a bubble. Jeez doesn't anyone remember 2000? Compare MSFT, CSCO, INTC, YHOO JNPR, ect.'s prices then to now.
Bubbles may be in the eye of the beholder. By a metric I follow, equity valuations have been at historically high levels since 1996 (consistently higher during the past twelve years than 1929's peak value). This can lead us to two conclusions: valuations have hit a permanently higher plateau; or, the 2000 bubble never fully deflated.
Or bond yields have come down compared to the 70s and 80s, making equities relatively more attractive.
No question that lower yields are a significant contributor to higher equity prices. Valuations today are still much higher compared to other low-yield periods (1900 - late 1960's).
so much negativity everywhere...talks of recession constantly make the front page of every site. plus, every day a slew of bearish threads pop up here. perfect technicals aside... ...can there be a stronger buy signal?
S&P 500 PE using ten-year average earnings instead of one-year earnings. Ten-year average earnings -- which was suggested by Shiller in his book "Irrational Exuberance" -- has an intuitive appeal to me because it helps smooth the impacts of business cycles and creative impulses that sometimes affect GAAP results.
Bitstream, Agreed. Bubbles are caused by euphoria, not doubt. A multi year bear market appears to be a foregone conclusion. People talking about depression, comparisons with japan, etc. etc. Go back and look at the tech bubble charts...go to wikipedia and read about the great depression... these are not analagous to markets at present.
no , but read about the early 70's stagflation. it's sounds and act's just like now. except for one thing, WE HAVE MAJOR FINANCIAL PROBLEMS WHICH MAKE THIS MUCH, MUCH, MORE DANGEROUS. bgp