The economy is doing GREAT - you hear it all the time from the President and some of the President wanna-be's. Those financial companies will get rid of some workers to trim costs, but those guys can go work for the other financial companies who don't have subprime problems. And the Fed will save us all from the Fed! The Fed under Greenspan kept the economy flush with cash so that we could all go speculating! But now that the bubble popped, Bernanke will help the subprimers by flushing cash into the economy! So there is nothing to worry about because inflation only affects you if you travel overseas! Don't worry about your job - you can retrain to be a brain surgeon - you really wanted to be one all along anyway, so why not take the opportunity now? This is the GREAT OWNERSHIP SOCIETY! Remember what the President said? MOST NEW HOME OWNERSHIP UNDER HIS ADMINISTRATION!! Was that "owned" or "you are owned".... O, doesn't make a difference. It's all being taken care of.
I used to live and work in Japan. Everywhere one goes in Japan it feels like the place has seen better times. I wasn't there for the peak of the bubble but I've been told things. Strangely the things which happened there have a resonance with what is going on now in Australia, US, Canada England etc. I think we are in for a long protracted and enduring bear market.
BUY these inverse equity funds SHORT EQUITIES in USD dollar base accounts. scale your positions in. The coming recession will reverse current account, plus china is not sqeaky clean. Gold, dont hold your breath, as deflation is the enemy for gold, recession will deflate assets based economies.
hi, i am a us citizen living in china (now 5th year). china has a lot of growth ahead of it. the market may correct, but its nowhere near where japan was 15 years ago. superficially, it may look as though the chinese govt. controls a lot of things, but chinese society is far more capitalistic than the west. consumption in china is also increasing very quickly, so i dont think they are completely dependent on the west. my suggestion would be not believe the news. their agenda is biased. best is to actually travel and live in an area to get know the real deal. unfortunately, i know most of what i said is going to fall on deaf ears. some times i even wonder why i bothering writing. sridhar
All this will be a great bull market for notes and bonds as the yield curves flatten to invert along with rate cutting pressure continuing. More upside in bonds than downside in equities though ... We've been simmering in bad news for how long now and the 'black tuesday' hasn't yet come, has it? Just index the US stock mkt against the USDX and you realize the US stock mkt even above 1500 has suffered in real terms quite a bit already. OTOH, if a guy like Ron Paul wins in 08, has his way with the fed and gold standard, I recommend everyone dump their stocks, go leverage up on USD - growth and lending as you know it will end.
in scale this is the biggest since the gold standard got the ax half a trillion dollars in Euros injected and LIBOR didn't crater there's a bad moon rising......
If that were true, wouldn't it make sense then for the Chinese govt. to let their currency float? I just don't buy it. The Chinese GDP is like 1/4th of the US (and that includes the huge advantage China has in net exports). Take away the exports, and there's no way the Chinese economy can sustain growth. It would cause huge inflation since their currency is so artifically low to begin with. Not to mention, their markets are so overvalued right now. I think their GDP would have to grow a significant amount from this point to even justify the *current* valuation. Sorry, but the China markets are due for a significant downturn.
China isn't the cheapest anymore labor wise, some of my stuff is sourcing from Viet Nam and India....
Just my 2 cents: The last 100 years of investing history was full of bubbles in different markets (real estate, gold, oil&gas, stocks) or equity sectors (tech, biotech, coal etc. etc.) or investment strategies (private equity, "absolute return" bond strategies etc.) Is today any different than the 80s, 70s, 60s or 50s? I don't think so, not by risk standards. Each period had their bubbles in certain areas and saw them pop and then the beat went on. Won't be different the next (this?) time.