SWN @ $31.60 AGU @ $ 36.37 Just for fun here is the list of the rest of my ideas up at the hedge fund account that still remain You can consider that each of these has received the upmost of my research.~ stoney ADM BLK CCC FSYS GEOY PRGO SGMS VRTX
There's a certain sadness in my trading. I can't explain it. perhaps you too feel it... yahoo my buy and hold for a long time suddenly got spastic, looking as scary to me on the way up as on the way down. Booted. I'm sort of chasing stuff @ $6 and then realizing.... sh*t I owned that at $65 last year... When you back these charts out longer term it's just so horrifying.... everything is broken... Take DOW... I wanted to buy that yesterday I really did it's got a lot going for it not the least of which is good earnings... but look at the 10 year... Here's the big QUESTION and the entire market's psyche rests upon it.... GDP came in slightly down... marginally lifted by large Gov. spending increases to offset factory slow down... Ok. Good move by the Gov... This next GDP WHICH WILL BE IN THE CRAP PERIOD... AND WAS SUPPOSED TO BE SOUTH OF 4 %!!!!!! The great Depression etc... well we have to be careful here... Take that Gov. spending add a 0.25% to GDP for every $10 oil has fallen during that period.... STOP folks that's a lot I'm just counting on my fingers but wouldn't that be 3% to GDP? Ok then factor in (I hope) resolution of Boeing strike and two hurricanes backed out & all this printing of money..... Could be masking the biggest negative GDP in a while and as such we may all live here to fight another day. People are scaring me about the day after the elections- Cramer said sell MOS tuesday as if he knew something... I am so frail minded know I'm thinking about doing the same thing. Then that dude on CNBC from the trading pits Rick Santelli in one of his smugger moments he said some important GOV statistic- some really important financing how huge the problem really is kind of number had been " postponed to one day after the election " and then he just smiled that Crocodile smile... that made the hair on my neck stack up... so the period one day after the election to NOV 15 is fraught with danger. Or at least it seems that way on this " frightful " day. Nov 15 is the last day for the Hedge Fund redemption cycle at end of year up until then a big one could go under.... Back to the depression part. I just sold O'Reilly.... I KNOW I KNOW I KNOW... I come off really bad here. But $21 to $26.80 on really bad earnings a wolf has to chew that. Not that I'm a wolf but I'm searching for a reason to justify selling all of these " one in a lifetime buy and put away stocks I'm supposedly buying " If the market really galloped away here I would be in big trouble. Some Zacks blog had a price target of $25 after earnings on ORLY so that didn't help either. BUT i Listened.. That's lame. I'm still scared and it shows in my trading. As someone who relies on skimming all the time to pay the bills it's tough. There's just so much to push around... There is all kinds of crazy shi* going on in the silver market... I want to post more but my wife is staring at me and I want to look like I'm doing research... That GDP mask.... that's going to get us WAY up- BIG UPS- a panic buy season it will be... and then I just can't bare to say it but you know A long, long period of flat line- wringing the last lover of stocks out of the game. Today's close should be interesting. japan facing a three day off period sold off vicious like... I'm wondering if we don't go VERTICAL... it flies in the face of most fridays... but what potential minefield is out there when LIBOR has come down from 5% to 3% and the Fed buying the corporate paper is loosening things up so much? What institution is going down over the weekend? There just doesn't seem like there is one.. and that pathetic fact in itself is good. If the Hedge funds want to get sneaky someone might start buying this afternoon... That would be nice. Did you read that QCOR's earnings? Not to bad... I'm watching that a bit this afternoon because we have not bought and they conference next week... Also this SOL is really calling out to me.. there is a bit of a stabilization happening in the Solars in the face of declining oil, a good sign and also a sign I think that oil has found a bottom around $60.... All of which brings us back to silver and SLV.... and thank you for the stars! ~stoney
SLV Metal Holdings- A CONSPIRACY from Resource Investor- Metal holdings for Barclayâs iShares Silver Trust [SLV], also declined a smallish 61.43 tonnes this week to show 6,834.15 tonnes of silver metal held for its investors by custodians in London. Thatâs almost exactly where it was two weeks ago. *Source for data Barclayâs iShares Silver Trust. Interestingly, during 2008 buying pressure for SLV so overwhelmed selling pressure the trust has added a total of 68,921,884 ounces (2,143.71 tonnes) of silver to its holdings. And for much of that time the COMEX paper-contract dominated spot market was falling? For comparison, as of Thursday (10/23), the COMEX, division of NYMEX, reportedly held 131,530,256 ounces of silver in its warehouses. That means that during 2008 one ETF, SLV, added the equivalent of 52.4% of all the silver metal that the COMEX has in its vaults. One ETF and in less than one year. Perhaps just as interesting, if we consider all of the 95,873 open contracts for silver on the COMEX as of last Tuesday, then we find that the COMEX traders are trading contracts either side, long and short, of 479.4 million ounces of silver but only have 131.5 million ounces behind it. Letâs see; because of overwhelming buying pressure, during 2008 SLV had to add over half of the amount of silver that all the members of the COMEX have in total inventory, but the COMEX-paper-contract-dominated price of silver metal fell over 50% from its March peak? How can that be? Well, here was the October 7 positioning by the two U.S. banks in the CFTC Bank Participation Report as compared to the entire commercial net short positioning. Exactly two U.S. banks continued to keep their thumb on the COMEX silver market as of October 7 when the silver price had already declined from $19.00 to $11.00 and change in the face of severe physical silver shortages of metal on the street. As of October 7 the two largest commercial banks still held a scandalous 23,308 net short silver contracts when the entire commercial net short position was 29,829 contracts. Thatâs right, two banks still dominated the small silver futures market with over 78% of all the commercial net short positioning. It is not even fair to call the immoral bankâs position a ânet shortâ position. The two U.S. banks were so certain of their dominance, they were so certain they could drive the futures price of silver lower still, that they did not hold a single long contract for silver on October 7. That, my friends, is the smoking gun and all the DNA we need to see. Who is ever so sure of such a large position? Only those who can control the ball game. No wonder that metal is now flowing out of the COMEX and into the physical market. Over 2 million ounces of silver have fled the vaults of the COMEX in just the last five trading days alone. As we will see a little later, the big U.S. banks have now apparently covered or offset some part, but not yet all of that overwhelming trading advantage over the rest of us......
PT 2 The story continues... As silver fell $0.82 or 7.51% COT reporting Tuesday to Tuesday (from $10.92 to $10.10 on the cash market), the large commercial COMEX silver traders (LCs) reduced their collective net short positioning (LCNS) by 4,903 or 18.04% to 22,268 contracts of net short exposure, while the total open interest on the COMEX fell yet another 2,723 contracts to just 95,873 COMEX 5,000-ounce contracts. That is the lowest silver LCNS in years. In fact we have to go all the way back to March of 2003 to find a lower commercial net short position for silver metal. Back when silver was trading at $4.00 and change. Source for base data CFTC for LCNS, London Silver Fix for silver from LBMA until 2-26-08 then cash market For context, the chart below compares the silver LCNS to the total number of open contracts on the COMEX, division of NYMEX. When compared to all the contracts open, the commercial net short positioning amounts to an extremely low 23.23%. Source for base data CFTC for LCNS, London Silver Fix for silver from LBMA until 2-26-08 then cash market Silver has since tested as low as $8.68 during Fridayâs panic morning trade before recovering back up to close at $9.35 on the cash market, about even with the previous weekâs ending. Despite the huge plunge for gold, silver behaved relatively better this week, but the fear-driven action was unsettling to even the most grizzled of hard core trading veterans. In a normal market the extremely low silver LCNS and LCNS:TO would be extraordinarily bullish. This is, however, a market that is anything but normal. Nevertheless, the intrepid among us should be on the lookout for signs of a breakaway run on the silver market. Most likely that will not get started until there is the threat of stability in the rest of the global financial kingdom. Virtually anything is possible short term. Be very careful out there. End Notes The futures markets have completely divorced from the physical markets for gold and silver as two or three U.S. banks continued to savage those who would take the long side in futures. These miscreant banks continued to reap (rape?) obscene profits from their short-selling domination of the paper contract markets, but COT data shows their positioning and therefore their ability to influence the market is growing smaller now. It is difficult to imagine a more egregious abuse of trading power than that shown by the two large U.S. banks holding over 78% of all the net commercial short positioning in the small COMEX silver market on October 7. An enormously dominant position that, once allowed by regulators to be taken, the banks were compelled to defend. They have been relentless in that defense. You can bet that if any two entities took a similarly large long position the howls of protest by the short side to the CFTC and the SEC would put an end to it pronto. Why are such overwhelmingly large positions allowed for the hedgers and short sellers and not allowed for speculators? Because presently the rules of the game favor one side over the other on the COMEX. The rules allow position limit exemptions for the very largest traders which can claim they are hedging other offsetting positions, whether they are or not. That has to change before we will be on a level playing field in the paper bullion markets. We can all help to effect that change in the coming months and years with our actions and with our own voices!
And lastly... In a year when just one ETF added the equivalent of over half of the entire COMEX inventory of silver, because of more buying pressure than selling pressure, it is extremely difficult to justify a drop of over 50% in the price of the metal. We are repeatedly told by some captive analysts that the plunge in the prices of silver and gold stems from the forced selling by funds and panic selling by investors during this crisis of confidence in financial markets. Sorry, that argument is not supported by selling pressure in the largest, most liquid and most transparent markets for gold and silver. The gold and silver ETFs. (They have been adding metal consistently which indicates increasing demand, not distribution.) That argument is not at all supported by the real physical bullion markets for gold and silver. Every bullion shop everywhere has three things in common right now and have had for months and months. Virtually no inventory, intense demand and the highest premiums for actual metal in many years. That is not a sign of liquidation, it is a very real sign of strength. The current commercial net short positioning for silver is the most bullish it has been since March of 2003. In more normal times that would lead to this report issuing a leveraged bullish call. (With appropriate new-trade trailing stops in place of course.) In the current environment, however, itâs just another in a long string of damning evidence that points to an artificially manipulated paper market that is not influenced by real supply and demand. >>> Wow that's a lot but back in the day I played gold stocks and ran into the UFO types and wow all this time later and it's still exactly the same... All of this really points to that SLV... I just don't know when to time the purchase it could be now... SLV or SOL... I'm leaning this way with my last $15K to invest... or that snaky QCOR... That Is All Have A SPOOKY but safe weekend. ~ stoney
Thanks for posting SI, I enjoy your missives, often quite informative with some interesting ideas, always entertaining. Thank you for your time, analysis, and wit
PS- I almost forgot! here is the play from yesterday- I sold my nat gas plays to applause but the stks have roared back... SWN is the one that I have rebought today with earnings tonight. This is the rare stock that the hedge fund owns and I own and like AND they are not selling going into earnings, it seems I am always the one left holding the bag- not this time. We in together. So SWN $31 and change I'll firm that up going into earnings that is your play. Play number two... The Ag space is drawing me like flies to you know what. It's very tough to resist when all the action seems to be in this space... Agrium is a rather stable company from Canada. I've always liked them and their CEO... so @ $36.42 with a pop high today at $40 and tons and tons of open interest contracts at $50 & $55... I'm taking a chance this rebound in the sector will continue. >> and here is the pay- SWN $35.90 and climbing- a $4 trade AGU has knocked on $38.70 twice today... - a $2 trade; if the market can late day explode this will slice through some nice resistance I'm holding both of course.~ stoney GO GIANTS!
Welcome To Stony's World- These Are The Best Performing of my Spec account... my aim always is to pick and choose among these and push a couple in size into the big boy account when appropriate. In that regard next week we hope to graduate. URBN & WLP & possibly SOL... ~ stoney *QCOR & FTEK & BEBE are on watch List not bought or entirely endorsed yet. The only knock against BEBE is the Great Charlatan recommended it this week on Mad Money~ Urban Outfitters, Inc. Urban Outfitters, Inc. NASDAQ URBN 21.61 +1.22 (5.98%) 3.62B bebe stores, inc. bebe stores, inc. NASDAQ BEBE 8.69 +0.55 (6.76%) 773.44M Almost Family, Inc. Almost Family, Inc. NASDAQ AFAM 47.51 +3.51 (7.98%) 386.21M WellPoint, Inc. WellPoint, Inc. NYSE WLP 38.56 +1.42 (3.82%) 19.63B Fuel Tech Inc. Fuel Tech Inc. NASDAQ FTEK 11.38 +0.88 (8.38%) 272.80M Steel Dynamics, Inc. Steel Dynamics, Inc. NASDAQ STLD 12.01 +0.07 (0.59%) 2.41B Kaiser Aluminum Corp. Kaiser Aluminum Corp. NASDAQ KALU 33.10 +1.40 (4.42%) 682.44M Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. NASDAQ QCOR 7.68 +0.40 (5.49%) 509.77M ReneSola Ltd. (ADR) ReneSola Ltd. (ADR) NYSE SOL 6.19 +0.23 (3.86%) 419.89M