Big Players positioning for Oil Retreat!

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by noparole, Jun 23, 2008.

  1. noparole


  2. I don't think that's it at all. The crack spread has been getting better for refiners. Gasoline prices are being passed on to consumers much more than they were in the recent past. If anything, they are betting crude will continue to climb.
  3. Wouldn't read too much into it, probably spending as much just getting twice as many shares because they're now half the price. Bberg need something to write about... LOL
  4. Did oil insiders buy stock in 1998 when gasoline was 90 cents and crude at $20 and make it known on bloomberg for all to see?
  5. noparole


    An interesting observation,it would appear that one of us has badly misinterpreted the article.

    Here's some quotes from it:

    "Caxton Associates LLC,Citadel Investment Group LLC and Renaissance Technologies Corp........boosted bets that shares will rebound............anyone right now buying the refiners would have to be banking on a pullback in oil prices"

    "Leuthold,which turned bearish on US stocks before a 19% tumble in the S&P 500............began buying refiner shares this month on speculation oil will drop to $110 a barrel"
  6. Refiner Insiders Buy Most Stock Since 2000 on Oil Bet (Update2)

    By Michael Tsang and Eric Martin

    June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Refinery executives are buying more of their own stock than at any time since 2000, prompting investors to bet that a retreat in oil will boost profits and reverse the biggest share decline in a decade.
    ``Insiders know more about their companies than analysts or anyone else,'' said Andy Engel, 48, senior research analyst at Leuthold, a Minneapolis-based investment and research firm that oversees about $4.8 billion. ``They probably have a better idea of when business will rebound.''

    Jun 2008 vs today

    XOM 87 vs 62
    CVX 98 vs 57
    COP 93 vs 48
    VLO 41 vs 18
    MRO 51 vs 25
  7. They are betting on increased refinery profits, which require plunging oil prices and increasing distillate prices.