true --- good points and this week up to friday will be most important to see how october is going to turn out. if we blowout the lows this week and make a 1170 spx level run then i see a tough end of year ahead. the institutions are going to have to pony up and pump liquidity this week or we are toast. the little guys sure are not going to clean this mess up -- two bits in a pocket does not make up rally liquidity.
Just opened up my Realtick to see a bunch of ESZ5 trades posted on Saturday with a low down at 1289.00?????? I don't see these trades on my other software. Can anyone tell me what the deal is???? Thanks
close --- i do not put the hedge funds in this group --- they are separate and they are doing some big plays counter to what the institutions have been doing {have you read any of my "liquidity war" posts this summer?}. the institutions have been in a liquidity fight with the hedge funds for the better part of this year, and this last week was the final blow to the institutions to give the hedge funds a pyrrhic victory. the hedge funds have been in some HUGE core short equities positions since spring as the institutions were doing everything in their power to pump the market with liquidity. probably the only way the hedge funds have been able to hang on as long as they did with a rallying market was the oil "long" play they have been in. the hedge funds oil long profits were continually put into their core equities short positions to adjust cost basis {adding to a loser -- like GM stock when it was running up}. the hedges were cycling in and out of "short" equities and "long" oil to tread water like a dog thrown out into the lake. the hedges finally were able to paddle to the shore this last week, and this weekend they were probably lying in the grass on their back in a state of wonderment {totally relieved of course and staring at the pretty clouds out of shear exhaustion thinking about their brilliance of efforts --- like a 17 year old laying in bed thinking about the cheerleader he just scored who is a sleep next to him --- come on you know that dazed smile i am talking about}.
This story started {as i have described in several other posts} imo with the fact that the hedge funds have been beating the institutions at the "returns game" for the past three years prior to 2005. so the institutions decided to do something about the group who was year after year taking more and more of their customers away {don't you dare pick-pocket the institutions!!!}. once the institutions determined the major positions the hedge funds were in, they took action. now it is almost funny how after so many hedge funds were VERY SHORT GM in core holdings that Kirk Kirkorian comes out and announces his group will be buying a sizeable percentage of GM stock {who in the heck would want to buy that loser????????}. this happens right at the very point that liquidity starts pumping in hard into the market {buy program city --- almost day after day for months}. so the GM core short holdings and all other major hedge fund short holdings are all now running against them ---- the one saving grace they had, the hedgies were heavy long oil. there are many other parts to this story and there will be the wounded exposed in the months ahead as this liquidity war will have left victims on both sides. the bottom line is that the hedge funds were saved this week as their oil play was starting to fail and the only way out was for a big sell-off in the market --- they got it. at the end of the year we will have to see who had the better returns, the hedgies or the institutions -- i would venture to say that they will both be poor. what a game that was though --- you gotta love it! and btw --- don't think this war is over yet --- hahahahahaha!
???? not sure what that could be ???? i do not show that with my data sources ---- maybe that is the new "saturday trading for the bored and wealthy"
Naaaa I'm just bored, not wealthy. So not AND maybe Bored OR Wealthy though. I've tried shutting down and reloading. Going to ticks etc. Still same results?????????????? Really strange.
Hello all...these are my projected Fair Values real values should revolve around these with +,- 20 to 30...I think ndx is a buy... when actual is above...should get ride of Ur Longs and short with say about 30 points above the fair vales.. (Trend is north for the month IMHO) GL KaL 9-Sep-05 1,622.19 12-Sep-05 1,628.49 15-Sep-05 1,635.00 18-Sep-05 1,641.73 21-Sep-05 1,648.68 24-Sep-05 1,655.85 27-Sep-05 1,663.24 30-Sep-05 1,670.87
Excerpt from "Bll Cara: Capital Markets... October 08, 2005 Week #40 (2005-10-08) in Review Executive Summary: A fundamental shift is underway in capital markets. Due to the anticipated major weakness for both stocks and bonds in the weeks ahead, 80-pct cash weighting ought to be considered. Capital risks are now being fully factored into trading decisions, effectively for the first time since 2001. The S&P (1195) has minimal support at 1175, with the possible floor being 1100. The Dow (10,292) has minimal support at 9800, with a possible floor being 9200. Depending on decisions to be made between China-U.S. monetary authorities this month and shortly after, the Dow 30 index could drop to 8400 (approx start of current bull market) or even 7800 (levels seen right after 9/11/01 crisis). The fact is no one knows with certainty how far the capital markets are going to move in the next year, but I am reasonably confident that the technical indicators in the charts below are telling us that the direction is down, for stocks and bonds. This is a condition known as stagflation, where the stock cycle de-links from the business cycle. Earnings through this period are, unfortunately, not something you can respect. Factors like inflation and share buy-backs cause the appearance of a stronger business cycle than exists. Not thet I myself don't have a brain but the man does have a point.
My 2 cents for what its worth!!! All our indicators are currently heavily short ( & have been since SPZ 1232/Dow Z 10589) These are relatively sht term indicators but when added to our longer term stuff, a move to 9159 looks likely on the Dow over the next 6 mths, 1115 S&P... All our analysis is price specific and we take no account of fundamentals...however common sense says add to this the stagflation theory and general stage of the cycle we are in and a hefty down move looks the more likely. 2006 doesn't look pretty for the bulls at this stage! peace & Profit