Big Money Poll: More Good News for Stocks By Vito J. Racanelli April 14, 2018 PHOTO:WREN MCDONALD The U.S. stock market has suffered two 10% corrections, or declines, this year—a response to rising interest rates, inflation fears, trade-war threats, and presidential tweets. Small wonder Wall Street’s bulls are feeling less exuberant today than they were last fall, when the market’s honeymoon with President Donald Trump’s economic agenda still was in full swing. Barron’slatest Big Money Poll of professional investors finds 55% bullish on the outlook for equities through year end, down from the 61% who described themselves as bulls in our fall 2017 survey. The bears’ ranks haven’t changed much: 11% of managers are pessimistic now, compared with 12% in October. But the “neutral” camp has swelled to 34% of respondents from a prior 27%, suggesting that some former bulls find stocks less attractive than they did six months ago. Barron’sconducts the Big Money Poll twice yearly, in the spring and fall, with assistance from Beta Research in Syosset, N.Y. Our latest survey drew responses from 157 professional money managers from across the country. The survey was emailed to investors in mid-March. Nearly all Big Money managers expect U.S. corporate profits to rise this year, and not just because of the tax cuts passed in December. Seventy-five percent of managers look for the global economy to improve, and roughly the same percentage see U.S. gross domestic product expanding by 2.5% to 3%. Global growth could boost the fortunes of U.S. multinationals and companies in emerging markets, which many poll takers favor. Among industry sectors, financials and technology stocks are the darlings. https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-money-poll-more-good-news-for-stocks-1523665374
Consumer confidence is off it’s highs, the Dry Baltic Index has not seen its typical seasonal jump yet, and the labor market gains are not as robust as before. However, I feel bullish. It is probably related to my feeling that geopolitical risk is less going forward. Trade relations will probably be normalized in the next few months and our relationship with Russia probably can’t get worse, if we are to keep this planet for a while longer. Givin’ my calls lately, global thermonuclear war probably starts on monday morning before the opening bell!