Man, was it just me, or did it seem like the big money was manipulating the YM into the close ? Maybe I'm completely off base here but a close over the 829 area would have set up a perfect reversal candle on the daily, and many would be thinking about going long into the open tomorrow. Over the 1318 area on ES for that same option. Instead, the big money has to protect its short positions so you see some decent sized selling to push this under 800 and smack some stops. Not gonna lie, they fooled me during the first push. Anyone else agree w/ this ? Or am i living in a dreamworld.
The market simply rolled-over and retraced 61.8% of today's early morning up move. No big deal. Tomorrow morning will be key to see if 1312.00 SPX holds. If so, we could see yet another 21 point rally back up towards 1333 and yet still be in a downtrend.
I will agree with you that it was a 21 point rally on ES. I disagree w/ the 61.8 retracement. Market sold off at EOD all the way to 1313, which would make that a 71.4% retracement. Had it only retraced to the 61.8 area, my long would never have been stopped out, and this thread would never have been created
You aren't taking the correct high point for your retracements. "When measuring retracements with Exp flat patterns you always measure from the top of the proceeding impluse wave...in this case the top of the (A) The 61.8% came in around 1313.5, the market went 2 ticks below into the stops..Its always wise to give it no more than 3 ticks leeway when working on naked fibs..ie fibs with no other signifcant 1:1 ratios going into a fib ratio.." In any event, looks like we are getting that 21 handle "measured-move" rally off the 61.8%