One note I want to make about the NDX is that it has always comprised mostly growth stocks. If you look at the all data chart then you can see how a growing economy can suddenly shoot that index up to amazing levels. However, if the economy isnt growing then that index can tank very fast and with short notice.
Too early. But maybe next year or two. Dem admin and growing "defective-poison" China goods backlash will slam equities. Or not...
But the US consumer needs to keep buying and US consumers are entering credit crunch phase 1 which is a soft RE market coupled with tighter lending. This tighter lending that is just now starting to take place is what can cause deflation. There aren't many places consumers can get an extra $10k, $20k, $30k, $50k, $100k, or whatever every year or two by refinancing...housing has been it. I think we'll see the repercussions in the next 6 months on a much larger scale.
this prediction has the best odds to come through - I go with it. I also believe that deflation is the major risk in the past few years. Unless Fed does not increase growth of M3 from double digits to triple digits we are doomed. I think that deflation will be accelerated by ever decreasing commodity prices, labor prices, food prices etc. Prices are just in a downward spiral...
politics will cause market volatility.... the democrats are just wizing up to the fact, that if they kill the market, the american public will start focusing in on more of other issues like the war in iraq and oil prices.. if democrats want to win the next election, thats what the game plan will be. Otherwise GOP/BUSH/OIL corps/Arabs/wallstreet will ramp up the market to new heights, reducing the chances of a democrat win to almost nothing.
Ok I'll bite. Correction on the scale of 30-40% in a matter of 3 days, will be global wide. Timeframe is sometime from now until the end of October. My signal gives me maybe a couple days to a week in advance. In fact my signal fired off a short yesterday, which could be the real deal but if thatâs the case I will have missed the move. I opened an acct at optionshouse but havenât sent money over there yet, which will take some time so Iâm hoping itâs not the real move⦠I will be putting my money where my mouth is and buy thousands of deep OTM puts.
Im bearish and have to disagree with that. Emerging markets have gone to high to fast, I do think there is a correction due for most of these markets, at least a 10-15% correction. Today on cnbc all I hear is stocks are still undervalued and that earnings for this quarter should keep the bull market going, there is no talk of any pullback. I think its when you least expect the correction is when its going to happen.
Sorry I didn't make myself more clear. I don't mean the bear market will last until October, I meant the bad break could happen anytime from now until October. And yes, I'm going to agree with you.. my gut tells me it's going to happen a lot sooner than expected which is why I'm worried if I can get the funds in on time. I switched brokerages cause optionshouse charges a flat fee per trade, no per contract basis. Would save thousands of dollars getting in and out of like 1000+ contracts.
I recall when the tech bubble finally popped few of the talking heads on CNBC would acknowledge anything was even wrong until the Nasdaq had lost hundreds of points
Here is another simple way to analyze things...now you dont need to be a chart reader or have studied technical analysis to look at the big picture. http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX If you look at the weekly chart, you can telegraph that there will be a fall to the 1440 level. If it gets to 1440 and breaks that line, then that will disturb the uptrend.