The 538 guys cover all the polls and run their models with all the polls and lots and lots of monte carlo like sims. Their latest... http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html
Intrade "predicting" an Obama electoral college landslide. http://www.intrade.com//?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true#
In a word, ouch. flytiger, your prediction of a Republican win is lookin' really bad at this point. Look for McCain to lead with a Wright cross next week. EDIT: Wow, just looked at Intrade. Does anyone know the largest gap to ever get made up in the final 10 days of a POTUS election? If those Intrade numbers are indicative of the true state of things, McCain is toast.
I don't think "Appalin' Palin" is praying to the correct God. Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday. lol
1. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=a5UhcbI4jecU that quote says it was signed by two democrats and other headlines said more dems were involved. I never said it was in the bailout bill. That is a red herring - and that you bring it up shows how poor your reading comprehension is. 2. in your pathetic distorted mind - you speak out your ass. Telling me I probably do not know about legislation. After finishing college in Washington D.C. In the late 80s I worked on capital hill for the democratic policy committee. I researched voting records and tracked bills. I am not saying it was a big time job, but I worked with some of the most egotistical democratic dopes the hill has ever seen. The Democratic Policy offices in the Hart building had signs in the waiting room with pictures of agricultural workers. Written in Spanish on the signs were the words "the land belongs to the people who work it." I happened to speak spanish pretty well back then. I know all about how bills are processed and I am very familiar with how dangerous the true believers working on the hill are. Behind the lying democratic politicians are a cadre of socialist idiots with big policy jobs. Later as an attorney I worked on legislation for environmental groups involved with trying to clean up the waters around San Diego. I did that without pay because I was concerned about the pollution in the waters around San Diego. It was those two experiences plus paying taxes that formed me into a conservative with libertarian leanings. I could go on about how wrong you were about just about every statement you dreamed up about me. But this is not about me... it is about how intolerant a dopey "tolerant" liberal really is. You have no tolerance for logic and facts and instead dream a distorted fantasy that has you as the all knowing elitetrader legislative page boy.
That' all need to prove you're an idiot. Again Defazio's letter was signed by an "impressive" 2 = "Dems" You didn't work Pro bono in San Diego because you were concerned about the environment, you worked there because no self respecting law firm would hire a logic challenged moron. I'd like to take at your LSAT score, spending lots of money for a law degree to end up working free tells a lot about your understanding of ROI., dumbass
MCCAIN'S LAST CHANCE By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN "Today (Thursday, October 23rd), tomorrow, and the weekend are the last chance McCain has to get back into this race. To understand why, letâs briefly recap what's happened since the conventions. McCain left the back-to-back conventions with a lead for the first time in the presidential race. His strength was fueled by his designation of Sarah Palin and the enthusiasm she aroused in the Republican base. The Democrats, caught off guard, attacked her viciously which only reinforced the perception of a woman being victimized by a sexist left. Then McCain lost the first two debates. Regardless of what observers think happened (we thought he lost the first and won the second), the fact is that his poll numbers deteriorated after each performance. The financial crisis extinguished any lead McCain may have had exacerbated by what must be seen, in hindsight, as the biggest mistake of his campaign - his decision to "suspend" his campaign and return to Washington to work on the bailout. McCain's subsequent docile support for the package, earmarks and all, destroyed the perception he had carefully built during his convention and subsequently of independence from Bush and of a populist antipathy to greedy Wall Street barons. As a result of the debates, the crisis, and McCain's ineptitude, Obama surged to a lead of 7-9 points around October 13th. Then, amazingly, McCain won the third debate. Using a populist appeal and fighting hard, he echoed the complaints of Joe the Plumber against Obama's plan to "spread the wealth around." From Wednesday, October 15 through Saturday, October 18th, McCain sliced the Obama lead to five points - an average of all the polling. But the effect of the debate began to wear off on Sunday, October 19th and McCain began to fall back again. By now, Obama has an average lead of 7.2 points, according to realclearpolitics.com. (The AP poll showing a dead heat is the only one to show such data, unfortunately). Much of Obama's rise this week has been due to his domination of the paid advertising. With his coffers swollen by $150 million raised in September, he can buy any available advertising time. But McCain has considerable resources at his disposal as well. For the week that started this past Tuesday, October 21st, McCain is running about four ads to every five that Obama airs in swing states. (Technically, McCain is airing about 2500 household rating points per week as against Obama's 3300. One household rating point means that one percent of the households are watching the ad. So 2500 points in a given week suggests that each household is seeing about 25 ads per week, or about four each day. While Obama is spending more money, the difference between seeing four McCain ads and five Obama spots each day is not significant.) And, starting on Monday of this week, McCain began running an attack ad specifically aimed at the issues first raised by Joe the Plumber. Showing footage of his chat with Obama, the McCain ad hammers home the tax issue, noting that Obama's so-called tax cut for 100 million Americans is really a welfare check for the half of them who pay no taxes. The ad is hard hitting and effective. More importantly, it is running in the clear without other McCain media to clutter up the message. So McCain has his best ad on his best issue with as close to financial parity with Obama as he is likely to get. If, in these circumstances, he cannot gain ground during the next few days, the race will be functionally over. But if the Republicans can get traction, it could become a competitive contest again. Godspeed John McCain."
Your logic reeks of sub 120 IQ that can not think in systems. Lets try a question - did I say anywhere that my only job was volunteering my time for an environmental group. If i did not have a job would I have been concerned about taxes? I can see why you support Obama. You have serious problems with drawing logical conclusions and you are a cheap shot artist.